German Elections & Politics

[Hifly]

I'm thrilled at the prospect that a Grand Coalition will be so damaging to the SPD that it will, yet again, be in an unrecoverable state by the next election.

[Hifly]

I hope Merkel stands firm against Gay Marriage. However, it can certainly pass the new parliament. I don't think there are socially conservative lefties in the Bundestag and many CDU representatives support it.

[Hifly]

Well, it can.

[Hifly]

Haha to all the SPD hacks who were putting their hopes on Hannelore Kraft. This is brilliant, brilliant news.

[Hifly]

Regarding Kraft, what was the real background of her remarks?

To understand this, you have to know that Sigmar Gabriel is highly unpopular within his own party. He was unpopular already before the elections, but it has gotten even worse since the coalition talks. Now, there are fears within party leadership that some (actually, a lot of) members might utilize the impending membership votum as a motion of no confidence against Gabriel. Their reasoning might go as follows: If we vote against the grand coalition now, Gabriel will have to resign (which is true), then Kraft will take over and be our chancellor candidate in 2017.

By negating her ambitions, Kraft effectively closed this door. She let the SPD members know that if they topple Gabriel now, they won't get her, but some mediocre figure (again) in 2017. Thereby, she sacrificed herself for the good of the party. Ironically, this gesture will embiggen her chances in the future, when Gabriel has to step back for other reasons. So, denying her ambitions was a very smart move, actually.

I sure do hope.  The problem is, even with someone who isn't in the coalition, the SPD is probably headed for a collapse in 2017.  By 2021, Hannelore will be yesterday's news.  At least Manuela Schwesig might be ready by then.

Are you a German citizen or are you planning to come live in Germany? Why are you so concerned about trying to impose an SPD government upon us if you'll never have to live under it?

[Hifly]

Regarding Kraft, what was the real background of her remarks?

To understand this, you have to know that Sigmar Gabriel is highly unpopular within his own party. He was unpopular already before the elections, but it has gotten even worse since the coalition talks. Now, there are fears within party leadership that some (actually, a lot of) members might utilize the impending membership votum as a motion of no confidence against Gabriel. Their reasoning might go as follows: If we vote against the grand coalition now, Gabriel will have to resign (which is true), then Kraft will take over and be our chancellor candidate in 2017.

By negating her ambitions, Kraft effectively closed this door. She let the SPD members know that if they topple Gabriel now, they won't get her, but some mediocre figure (again) in 2017. Thereby, she sacrificed herself for the good of the party. Ironically, this gesture will embiggen her chances in the future, when Gabriel has to step back for other reasons. So, denying her ambitions was a very smart move, actually.

I sure do hope.  The problem is, even with someone who isn't in the coalition, the SPD is probably headed for a collapse in 2017.  By 2021, Hannelore will be yesterday's news.  At least Manuela Schwesig might be ready by then.

Are you a German citizen or are you planning to come live in Germany? Why are you so concerned about trying to impose an SPD government upon us if you'll never have to live under it?

Why do you care about American elections?

American elections are important on an intercontinental level- and I care about there being a Democratic President so that a liberal foreign policy can be pursued.

[Hifly]

Here is why: As I have stated on numerous occasions, the very concept of Social Democracy, and therefore the SPD, is doomed. This has almost nothing to do with current events and very much with general demographic and socio-economic trends.... 
So, the results will be the same anyway - a massive collapse in the next elections . Basically, you only have to choose when it will happen. If that's the case, the SPD might as well cling to power for four final years, effectively delaying the party's demise for this period of time. That's still a bleak perspective, but better than nothing.

Do your fellow party members that you've spoken to also acknowledge this or are many too deluded?

[Hifly]

As the population becomes richer and more educated over time, this can surely help erode SPD support.

[Hifly]

All of them, both CDU/CSU and SPD, added "so wahr mir Gott helfe" to their oath of office.

Ugh...

I'm glad to say that you don't have German citizenship so this really shouldn't be an issue for you.
I also didn't know that your respect for freedom of religion was at such negligible levels.

[Hifly]

Presumably you'd also rather they turned up for the oaths in donkey jackets?

That would certainly be beautiful to see, yes, but let's stay realistic.

This wouldn't happen because they have class.

[Hifly]

Merkel rules out any coalition with the AfD on the federal and state level:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.mdr.de/sachsen/wahlen-politik/landtagswahl/vorwahlsplitter-landtagswahl-sachsen100.html#anchor1

Merkel says the AfD has a "backwards picture of society".

Which might be true.

Didn't the Saxony-AfD leader just recently call for a referendum on abortion ?

Well, they're possibly the most highly educated party.

[Hifly]

I have absolutely no idea what the results of that poll mean; you've presented it in a completely meaningless way.

[Hifly]

Cool interactive Hamburg results map by district:

http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_2015_hh_bue/index.html

Click left where it says "Wahlbeteiligung" (turnout) and choose a party.

Do you know how to find the precinct results?

[Hifly]

LOL SPD

[Hifly]

The SPD have lost their only district in BW (Mannheim I) to AfD.

[Hifly]

Was putting up election posters in Berlin last sunday and it became a surreal experience again.

First, some 50-year-old guy who is completely naked except for his briefs is opening his window in the first floor and starts an incoherent rant in a thick Saxon accent: "You're not doing anything except letting all those refugees in!" First he claims that he's voting AfD, later he's yelling that he's voting "red" (presumably The Left?).

Later that day a seemingly unhinged woman is harrassing us and wants to know if we have a permit for putting up election posters and on what legal basis we're doing this. Our answer that you don't need a permit for this and that the state's electoral law allows us to do it, doesn't convince her at all. Instead, she wants to write down our names so that she can file charges with the police later on. Our refusal to give her our names leads her to write down the license plate of our rental car.

Why, or why, are those people allowed to vote?

You see, that attitude is why your absolute farce of a party will continue to be decimated.

[Hifly]

Was putting up election posters in Berlin last sunday and it became a surreal experience again.

First, some 50-year-old guy who is completely naked except for his briefs is opening his window in the first floor and starts an incoherent rant in a thick Saxon accent: "You're not doing anything except letting all those refugees in!" First he claims that he's voting AfD, later he's yelling that he's voting "red" (presumably The Left?).

Later that day a seemingly unhinged woman is harrassing us and wants to know if we have a permit for putting up election posters and on what legal basis we're doing this. Our answer that you don't need a permit for this and that the state's electoral law allows us to do it, doesn't convince her at all. Instead, she wants to write down our names so that she can file charges with the police later on. Our refusal to give her our names leads her to write down the license plate of our rental car.

Why, or why, are those people allowed to vote?

You see, that attitude is why your absolute farce of a party will continue to be decimated.

Go f**k yourself.

I rest my case!

[Hifly]

All accomplishments over the last decade are the work of the SPD in government or the result/consequence of events like Fukushima.

The SPD better looks out for a candidate who can beat her.

Shame the voters disagree with you!!

[Hifly]

YouGov poll:

32.5% CDU/CSU (n.c. compared with last week)
26.0% SPD (+5.0)
13.0% AfD (-1.5)
10.5% Left (-0.5)
  7.5% Greens (-1.0)
  6.5% FDP (-1.0)
  4.0% Others (-1.0)

That is yuge. Come on Schulz, we can throw Merkel out of the chancellery.

Can we place bets?

[Hifly]

And that's it : AfD fourth behind die Linke. But I see they had already fallen from third in an Allensbach poll from late March, polling even fifth.

What's "it"? At the moment AfD and Linke are polling roughly the same.

[Hifly]

Is the city of Berlin very liberal like most cities, or is it a rare conservative-leaning city?

Berlin is extremely liberal for the most part. Nevertheless, there are some upscale neighborhoods in the west (boroughs Steglitz-Zehlendorf, Reinickendorf and Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf) and some Trump-style working class neighborhoods (boroughs Marzahn-Hellersdorf, Treptow-Köpenick, Lichtenberg and Pankow) and in the east.
The polling location map of the latest Berlin state election is a good litmus test:

Are the conservative parts of Berlin similar to the American working class vs. elite upscale tensions?

Where is the most conservative part of Germany located?

No.

[Hifly]

Is there a good possibility of the SPD over performing and forcing the grand coalition to continue? I feel like that might happen.

Based on what? The Americans must know something the rest of us don't!

If you had been analysing recent German state elections you'll have noted that popular largest-party incumbents have generally overperformed and likewise their opposition or smaller coalition party underperformed on polling day.

[Hifly]

I'm going to go ahead and predict an upset, SPD, Greens, and the Left win a majority (as they did last time) and actually end up forming a government.

You think they can do this with both FDP and AfD crossing 5% ?

The Americans know things the rest of us don't!