German Elections & Politics

[windjammer]

And in Hessen? Black-green coalition?

[windjammer]

I haven t seen this thread, my bad!

Seriouly, who will miss the FDP?

[windjammer]

Nice. My own (from content analysis of manifestos):

There is not much difference between positions based on the content of manifestos and the perception by the general public, except the gap between left-wing and right-wing parties that seems to be larger.

Where would be the NPD? Extremely to the right socially but economically? I read their platform once on internet and that was "protecting the german poors blabla".

[windjammer]

The SPD is reportedly trying to hire Obama's former campaign manager and Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina as an advisor for the 2017 election in Germany.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/spd-will-chef-wahlkaempfer-von-barack-obama-holen-a-1017178.html

Well, the biggest problem for them is that Merkel is literally a political killer.

[windjammer]

How did the CDU manage to basically lose 30 points?

[windjammer]

Well, I wonder what is going to happen in Sachsen anhalt. A grand coalition between die Linke and cdu lol lol?

[windjammer]

My prediction for the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election tomorrow:

26.4% SPD (-9.2)
25.3% AfD (+25.3)
20.7% CDU (-2.3)
12.9% Left (-5.5)
  5.6% Greens (-3.1)
  3.1% FDP (+0.3)
  1.9% NPD (-4.1)
  4.1% Others (-1.4)

Turnout: 57.6% (+6.1)

I guess one day that will happen that Afd+Linke=majority of seats ?

[windjammer]

So Merkel is the last chancellor before an Afd-FDP-CDU or Linke-SPD-Green coalition?

[windjammer]

If this is mathematically possible, I think it is quite likely they would go with a CDU-Green coalition.

[windjammer]

The coalitions from most likely to least likely right now:
1) SPD-CDU or CDU-SPD
2) SPD-Die Linke-Greens
3) SPD-Greens-FDP
4)CDU-FDP-Greens
5) CDU-FDP-AFD

[windjammer]

The federal executive committee of the AfD has voted in favour of starting procedures to expel their Thuringian state chairman Björn Höcke from the party.

Federal co-chairwoman Frauke Petry had filed this motion. Despite having won the required majority to start expulsion procedures, the "nay" votes on the executive committee were:

Petry's co-chairman Jörg Meuthen, deputy chairman Alexander Gauland, Saxon-Anhaltian state chairman André Poggenburg, and Lower Saxonian state chairman Armin-Paul Hampel.

This means the ongoing power struggle between Petry and Meuthen/Gauland enters the next phase, I guess.

The case lies now with the party's state board of arbitration in Thuringia, who will be the first to decide on the motion.

So maybe Red-red-green could have a chance to survive next election?

[windjammer]

How much could a Nazi breakaway party hurt the AfD electorally? Is there even much electoral space between the AfD and the NPD?

There was something similar that happened in France in the 1990's and the beginning of the 2000's: a split happened inside the National Front (FN): many "cadres" of the party split and created the "Mouvement National Républicain".  Some other splits happened as well inside the National Front with Jacques Bompard. All these splits had in common:
- a strong regional base but not a national base: these newly created parties could do big scores in some part of the country (like MNR in Marseille), but they never were able to become something bigger than a regionalist party.
-Ideologically, they are less anti-system if it makes sense: they are more willing to try to create alliances with "mainstream" rightwing parties while the original far right party remains more reluctant to try to unite the right.
-These parties never last and lose progressively momentum.

[windjammer]

Three state polls today:  
  
Saarland (Forsa):  
  
CDU: 34%  
SPD: 33%  
Linke: 13%  
AfD: 6%  
Grüne: 5%  
FDP: 4%  
  
Less than three weeks until the election and the plot thickens. This poll proves that INSA's poll two days ago wasn't just a fluke. While numerically basically nothing has changed (R2G at 51%, Protest Party at 6-7%) It will be interesting to see if AfD, Grüne and FDP can get above the 5% threshold. My guess is that the later two won't. More important though is who will lead the next Grand Coalition. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is widely respected and for a lot of people the crown princess in the CDU as it is known that she is very close to Merkel but if she really blows her 12 point lead from back in January then this could be a debacle for her whole career.  
  
_________________  
  
Baden-Würtemberg (Infratest Dimap - Compared to September):  
  
CDU: 28% (+2)  
Grüne: 27% (-4)  
SPD: 20% (+7)  
AfD: 11% (-6)  
FDP: 7% (+0)  
Linke: 4% (+1)  
  
The SPD is the Conchita Wurst of Baden-Würtemberg as she rises like a phoenix. Of course a year after the last election this doesn't mean much though. Of course I enjoy the crash of the AfD.  
  
_________________  
  
Rheinland-Pfalz (Infratest Dimap - Compared to December):  
  
SPD: 40% (+8)  
CDU: 35% (-1)  
AfD: 7% (-3)  
Grüne: 6% (-3)  
FDP: 6% (+1)  
Linke: 3% (-1)  
  
'Rise like a phoenix! Out of the ashes...' ♪♫ Germany's only so called traffic light coalition has gained 4% since their election a year ago. As everywhere it seems that the SPD is almost consuming Grüne and AfD and regain their old strength thanks to the Schulz Hype Train.

SPD-Linke coalition isn't possible in Saarland?

[windjammer]

SPD with a steep rise in NRW:



Compared with January #s:

SPD +5
CDU -3
Greens -2
FDP +2
Left -1
AfD -1

So likely red-green or red-red-green

[windjammer]

New poll for Saarland as well where the election will be held next week. It's compared with the 2012 result. Note: SPD won't form a coalition with Die Linke here, it will be another Grand Coalitions, it's only about who'll lead it. 
 

Why no SPD-DieLinke?

[windjammer]

How arr the olds going to vote by the way?

[windjammer]

What is going on with Afd?

[windjammer]

Well, as long as the CDU/SPD coalition doesn't hold, I'm fine with any results

[windjammer]

Infratest Dimap poll of next year's Brandenburg state election:

AfD: 29%
CDU: 24%
Linke: 17%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 6%
Green: 5%

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/969278678763999232

Wow, AfD+Linke at 46%. I wonder what will happen when the negative majority of AfD-Linke reaches 50% somewhere. Repeat elections forever? CDU-Linke deals? Or will AfD finally be treated like a normal party?

Well, if the greens don't reach 5% it appears Afd+Linke have the absolute majority

[windjammer]

Why the CSU is running only in Bayern? They have a lot of potenials if they become a national party.

[windjammer]

Well,

Isn't Afd's score lower than expected?