German Elections & Politics

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"The Left " is a merger of the former communist SED (the party of the GDR regime), which later changed its name to PDS and the WASG.

Nope. The WASG was an autonomous party, which didn't have its roots in the PDS.

This changed after the then Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) undertook the necessary provably dispensable welfare state reforms.

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Are we, broadly speaking as intelligent sentient beings, better off with AfD instead of NPD in the Saxon Landtag ?

Broadly speaking, yes. Thd NPD are people who admire Adolf Hitler. The AfD are people who admire Margaret Thatcher.

... and Putin!

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Interesting. There seems to be an east-west divide in terms of AfD support:
Görlitz, Bautzen and the Dresden exurbs have the most AfD voters.
Even more interesting: Even the NPD map displays the same pattern.
As a consequence, the CDU and the Linke are much stronger in the West, the former however in none of the three cities.
The SPD shows a similar pattern as the Linke, however they are stronger in the rural areas on the border to Thuringia.
The Greens and the are only strong in the cities, and so are the Pirates (providing you can call them strong).
The FDP has the strongest support in the middle sector of Saxony, but its support is by and large equally distributed.

PS: I love colors.

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Do you think that the FDP is getting smaller because the CDU is becoming almost like a new FDP? I read that, in recente years, the CDU has been becoming more free marketeer and less Christian. Is it true?

It depends on what you understand by "less Christian". The CDU has certainly become less conservative, but it still is a theocratic party.
In terms of market economy, the CDU has positioned itself as pro-social market; it is now where it used to be under Kohl's government.

To answer your question: No. After the near defeat in 2005, the CDU, which had been thatcheresque back then, has been trying to establish itself as an anti-FDP, which is supposed to take care of employees and, to a lesser extent, of the poor (in order to mulct the SPD of voters, obviously successfully).

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Here are the CD results of Thuringia:



The CDU wins 34 of 44 seats.

The Linke wins 9 districts: in Erfurt, Jena, Gera and Nordhausen.
The MP candidate of the Linke, Bodo Ramelow, lost his district (Erfurt III) to former finance minister, justice minister and Chief of Staff Marion Walsmann.

The only SPD districts belongs to Gotha and is won by Matthias Hey.
Here are the CD results of Brandenburg:



SPD: 29
CDU: 10
Linke: 4
BVB/FW: 1

The blue color denotes a win by Christoph Schulze of the Vereinigte Bürgerbewegungen / Freie Wähler ("Citizens' Movement / Free Voters) in Teltow-Fläming III. He used to be a member of the SPD and a member of the Green faction (not the party). He has been a member of the Brandenburg Landtag since 1990.
This CD win by a minor results in a exemption of the 5% threshold for the BVB/FW, which gets 3 seats as a consequence.

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What position would the Freie Wähler members take generally--generic conservative/center-right?

I think the American equivalent is "moderate".
Their members are the typical "nice men/women next door" with a clean sidewalk and a garden goblin.

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What position would the Freie Wähler members take generally--generic conservative/center-right?

I think the American equivalent is "moderate".
Their members are the typical "nice men/women next door" with a clean sidewalk and a garden goblin.

lol wait that's great, they should be getting more votes

On the municipal level, they are extremely strong, in every Land.
On the state level, they are only relevant in Bavaria.

They are not meant for the federal stage; they rather care for municipal issues.

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The next two Lands to hold elections are Hamburg (Feb 2015) and Bremen (May 2015).
If the AfD manages to enter those two states' Bürgerschaften, it won't be possible anymore to imagine the political landscape without them.

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Where can we find recent polling for Bremen and Hamburg?

Here.

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The next two Lands to hold elections are Hamburg (Feb 2015) and Bremen (May 2015).
If the AfD manages to enter those two states' Bürgerschaften, it won't be possible anymore to imagine the political landscape without them.

But if the other parties continue to refuse to form coalitions with them and essentially ignore them, what role would they have to play? At least until the next parliamentary election?

The same role the Linke has been playing for 9 years.

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The Social Democratic voters in Thüringen prefer SPD to continue governing with CDU in a grand coalition.

When was this poll conducted? Before or after the election?

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When was this poll conducted? Before or after the election?

It's part of the ARD-exit poll:

http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/bilder/uvotealbum-196.html

Another question, another answer:



That proves the silliness of polls again...

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Well, this is the answer from ALL people polled, not just SPD-voters ...

I didn't allege inconsistency, but rather silliness.
That one exist poll doesn't say either that the remaining SPD voters oppose a MP Ramelow, they just prefer Lieberknecht.

Another example of its silliness:
27,000 former SPD voters turned towards the Linke, only 12,000 towards the CDU.
What do those exit polls do for the SPD?

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AfD will crash in Hamburg for sure, they profit the most from EU. I'm not sure about Bremen's demographics but keep in mind these are two free cities we are talking about and not regions. AfD took votes of Die Linke in the urban centres of the two states here so I can only see the making inroads in Bremen where Die Linke did well 10 years ago.

Here are the AfD results of previous Hamburg and Bremen elections:

Hamburg:

Federal election: 4.2%
European election: 6.0%
Local elections: 4.5%

Almost 20% of the Hamburgers voted for the - now abolished - Law and Order Offensive Party (short: "Schill Party") back in 2001. Its chairman, judge Ronald Schill, was known as Richter Gnadenlos ("Judge Merciless").
So yes, the AfD will probably enter the Hamburg Bürgerschaft.
Bremen:

Federal election: 3.7%
European election: 5.8%

Bremen has a special electoral law;
in order to enter the Bürgerschaft a party needs 5% either in Bremen City (or whatever it's called in English) or in Bremerhaven. The law-and-order party Bürger in Wut ("enraged citizens") made it twice into the parliament thanks to this rule. But their votes are likely to turn towards the AfD next year.
So yes, the AfD will obviously enter the Bremen Bürgerschaft.

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I'm pretty sure the AfD will get easily into the Hamburg parliament (senate) early next year.

They will likely get 6-8% and not the 10-12% in the East, but they will easily get in.

The Senate is the executive branch in Hamburg, Bremen and Berlin.
I'm dubious about the AfD entering the Hamburg Senate...

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I think this is the best result one could imagine.
Now those three form a genuine trio: mayor - party leader - faction leader.
Congratulations to the last Social Democratic Berlin Mayor in a long time...

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So have the FDP in Hamburg found a four leaved clover or something?

No, the FDP is simply proof that a party just needs to obtrude itself upon the media, and they'll see a boost in the polls, no matter how content-free their program or incompetent their top candidates are...

Btw, you post brings back good memories ...

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State election in Hamburg today.

For the first time ever, 16 and 17-year olds will be allowed to vote as well.

Polls close @ 6pm local time.

And for the first time the Hamburgers elect their representatives for a legislative session of 5 years.

PS: Is "Hamburger" the right term?

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My prediction:

SPD: 45%
CDU: 18%
AfD: 10% 😭
Greens: 10%
Left: 8%
FDP: > 5% 😭 😭 😭

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So have the FDP in Hamburg found a four leaved clover or something?

Nope, just a woman with some decent legs.

Here is, btw, the "delicate" video Beezer was adverting to ...

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I'm tempted to do a "hot or not, or just hot enough for the FDP to get 5%+" poll on those legs.

And I'm tempted to make a GIF out of that.
But I'm sure you mods would rate it as inappropriate.

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Only 16% of the Hamburgers split the ticket.
The younger the voters, the more did they split their votes.

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The 16- and 17-year-old were allowed to vote for their first time.
5% of them voted Pirates.
Also the FDP fared better than average.

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One of the most famous candidates that could profit by the complex, but interchangeable voting system could be Inge Hannemann, who has been labeled "Hartz IV rebel" by the tabloid press.
She became famous nationwide after she got suspended from her office in a job center because she refused to impose sanctions on her unemployed clients. Hannemann is also an advocate of the idea of the unconditional basic income.
She is independent, but has been a member of the Altona district parliament for the Left since last year.
Now she is seeking membership of the Hamburg Bürgerschaft by running on the state list of the Left - on number 13.
The Left is being allocated 11 seats at this juncture. There's a realistic chance of her benefiting from the possibility of vote splitting.

Update: She did it. The complex voting system truly helped her.

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Franknburger. I missed you so much.
I was about to ask where you've been, as a Hamburger like you could attribute to this topic firsthand.