German Elections & Politics

[politicus]

Slight bounce for the SPD in the first Infratest dimap poll since the new government took over.

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 9%
Linke: 8%

AfD: 4%
FDP: 4%

They should enjoy it while they can.  Hopefully, they'll drop to all-time lows very soon.  The SPD is dead for all true intents and purposes.

Why are people here so negative on the SPD?

They're to the right of most European mainstream-left parties (emphasis on the word 'European', of course), and there's a perception (that reminds me of similarly absurd ideas about the GOP, actually) that they're going to die out and be overtaken by the Greens.

The Greens are too middle class (among other things) to replace SPD as [i the[/i] major centre-left party. But SPD might very well be weakened to a degree where the German party system lose its character of being a "two party system plus change" and becomes a "one party plus token opposition"-system with CDU as an even more dominant "natural party of government". Sort of a German version of the LDP in Japan.

[politicus]

They're to the right of most European mainstream-left parties

I don't think that's actually true.

Well, its hard to measure those things, but what major European mainstream-left (=main centre-left) parties do you consider to be a) to the right of the SPD b) equally right winged?

I would consider SPD to be clearly to the right of PS, PSOE and all the Scandinavian SDs and slightly to the right of Labour.

Irish Labour is to their right, but who else?

[politicus]

Dutch Labour. They're basically left-liberals and they just love coalitions with VVD, D66 and CDA.
Also, I perceive the Nordic SDs as being far to the economic right of UK Labour in historical policy terms, if more socialistic in theory.

Not talking about history here. But if we where: Nordic SDs have hardly been more Socialist in theory than British Labour were pre-New Labour.

Yeah, Dutch Labour is at least as right wing as SPD.

Still I cant see that the claim that SPD is to the right of most European main centre-left parties isn't true.

Basically I'd argue that the way things currently appear is really more a case of observing that the Left of the SPD is kind of semi-marginalised at present, whereas in Britain most Left factions back the current leadership. Things have been different in the past and presumably will be in the future.

That's a good point, but I think semi-marginalization is putting it mildly...

It is difficult to place parties in different countries on a left-right scale using objective criteria, so I wont pursue this any further. Plus it could easily derail the thread.

Still, if anybody would like to answer my original question: What major European mainstream-left (=main centre-left) parties do you consider to be a) to the right of the SPD b) equally right winged? in a more systematic manner in a different thread (or a PM), that would be interesting.

[politicus]

The FDP is fading away. So much, that even articles about their declining are rarley. Here is one of them:

B.Z. (a Berlin daily newspaper)

No recovery, the FDP - how a party disappears
By Michael H. Spreng

Six months ago, she put four federal ministers, today it has disappeared from the public radar - the FDP. The small party that failed in the general election at the five per cent threshold has not recovered even under its new chairman, Christian Lindner.

The FDP languishes in the polls at three percent. In the newspapers and on television, she appeared only rarely like the Loch Ness monster . And here the question arises : Does it exist at all (yet) ? Only Wolfgang Kubicki adorns the talk shows. But he only presents himself, not the FDP.

The FDP must now determine how severe extra-parliamentary opposition, especially for a bourgeois party . In the European elections it is ranked only 7 of the result appear - according to the CDU, CSU, SPD, Greens, "The Left " and AfD . And in the three East German state elections it has nowhere the chance.

The FDP has to date provided no argument that it is still needed . What is your unique selling proposition, what are their issues, what they can do better than the others?

In today's media society only the established and the shrill have a chance to be noticed . And the FDP is not established and shrill they do not want to be .

The FDP can only hope that the CDU / CSU commits serious errors in the grand coalition and gives her back room to be noticed and chosen. This does not happen, then it will gradually disintegrate in the extra-parliamentary opposition.

--------

The FDP is down from 14,6% in the federal elections 2009, to 4,8% in the elections 2013 and now at 3-4% in the surveys. The next elections are also not very helpful. In the European elections the FDP stands in the polls at 3% (down from 11%) and the surveys for the next state elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg see them declining towards 2%. After September 2014, the FDP will probably sit in no state government (the last one is of Saxony) anymore and will represented in only 6 out of 16 state parliaments (early 2015 possibly only in 5 because of the elections in Hamburg).

It wont be missed by many - left or right.

[politicus]

"The Left " is a merger of the former communist SED (the party of the GDR regime), which later changed its name to PDS, and the WASG.

Nope. The WASG was an autonomous party, which didn't have its roots in the PDS.

You seem to have very bad reading comprehension solarstorm. Enno writes that it was a merger of PDS and WASG.

[politicus]

Oh, and the FDP really needs to stop being listed separately.

It is their worst result in Brandenburg. Their worst result so far was 1.9% in 1999. (In Thüringen they did worse that year, when they received only 1.1% of the vote). The FDP had a string of pretty bad results at the end of the nineties and they were only represented in four regional parliaments at that time, so maybe there is still hope for them?

Let's hope not.

[politicus]

The only SPD district belongs to Gotha and is won by Matthias Hey.

There is a certain historical beauty to SPD still winning Gotha in a monumental defeat.

[politicus]

At this point, the AfD has no interest in governing. Why would they?

Isn't the raisin d'être of a political party to be in government and have an impact on public policy?

You can have an impact without being in government. Protest parties puts things on the agenda and pressure established parties to change or moderate some of their policies. Just look at the effect of right wing populism on European immigration policy or Greens on SD and Social Liberal environmental policies.

[politicus]

I'm pretty sure the AfD will get easily into the Hamburg parliament (senate) early next year.

They will likely get 6-8% and not the 10-12% in the East, but they will easily get in.

I think the AfD would likely enter in pretty much every Bundesland at this point.

Unless they implode Pirates style.

They seem to have a much more solid basis. They are filling an actual void in the German party system.

[politicus]

Federal poll from Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 10%
Linke: 9%
Grüne: 8%

FDP: 2%

At this point we can wonder WHAT in the f**ing world would weaken CDU-CSU's score federally ?

A credible SPD with a genuine plan for what to do with the country?

[politicus]

Federal poll from Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 10%
Linke: 9%
Grüne: 8%

FDP: 2%

So centre-right + right = 54% and centre-left + left is 39%, that leaves 7%. Where do they go?

[politicus]

Federal poll from Forsa:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 22%
AfD: 10%
Linke: 9%
Grüne: 8%

FDP: 2%

So centre-right + right = 54% and centre-left + left is 39%, that leaves 7%. Where do they go?

2% Pirates, 1-2% Freie Wähler, 1-2% NPD, 2% other small parties

Germany seems to be roughly 40/60 left-right (in the crudest sense of those terms) at the moment. It seems centrist voters invariably break to the right.

[politicus]

Actually the current left/right proportions in Germany are not so much a result of centrist voters breaking to the CDU/CSU. They are at least as much the result of a massive voter demobilization on the left. Note that in 2002 CDU+CSU+FDP had 22 million votes and that this was less than SPD+Greens. Since then CDU+CSU+FDP have gone down to 20 million votes and yet SPD+Greens is not a realistic option on the federal level anymore.

(The AfD of course drains voters not only from FDP, CDU and CSU, but also from Left and SPD and therefore the AfD has shifted the political  landscape slightly to the right. I wouldn't call these swing voters centrists though.)

That's interesting, but natural given the sort of policies SPD has advocated (and implemented while in government).

[politicus]

Germany seems to be roughly 40/60 left-right (in the crudest sense of those terms) at the moment. It seems centrist voters invariably break to the right.

More like 52-46 for the Right, according to the latest polls.

Austria is 60-40 for the Right though.

I said "in the crudest sense" and its a matter of the left-right definition. In the polls I commented on it was true counting Linke, Greens ad SPD as Left and the rest as Right.

I guess I will land in the Irony Ore Mine if I say, "do you have to involve  Austria in everything", so I wont. .

[politicus]

A Left/SPD/Green coalition in Thuringia headed by Bodo Ramelow (Left) seems increasingly likely.

That's going to be an interesting experiment, but will probably work fine.

[politicus]

Recent polls still have AfD at 4% despite the refugee crisis, that is a bit surprising. Are they keeping a low profile on this?

[politicus]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/10/europe-migrants-germany-poll-idUSL5N11G47R20150910

In a recent poll, 36% of Germans say the government isn't doing enough to help refugees, while 27% say it is doing too much.

The most interesting about those numbers are the the remaining 37%.  

[politicus]

CDU/CSU hurt by migration crisis as voters on their part migrate to the AfD?


http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

The AfD does indeed appear to be taking support from the CDU and CSU:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/09/15/uk-europe-migrants-germany-poll-idUKKCN0RF0T920150915

Yeah, but even if AfD is useless, the German polls are still remarkably unaffected by this. In most other countries we would see huge swings to the anti-immigration right with an inflow this big.

[politicus]

Knife stabbed Henriette Reker elected Lord Mayor of Cologne, while still in artificial coma after the assault.

She got 52.7 and her closest competitor Jochen Ott from SPD got 32. So a clear victory in the first round.

Congrats.