German Elections & Politics

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Isn't the general rule that when a politician explicitly rules out something in the not immediate future, said denial should not be taken terribly seriously?

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I don't disagree: just thought that someone had to point out the obvious.

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Hilarious

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Actually, could someone more familiar with German constitutional matters explain what the anchor was even trying to argue? Because to me it seems to be verging on Insane Troll Logic.

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There are people like that in the Labour Party as well. I don't understand why.

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You've made that case a lot but have yet to come up with a shred of credible evidence for it. A pattern that I'm also very familiar with.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The main problem - here and everywhere - is really of a sociological nature. There is simply no one left who could or should vote for a Social Democratic party. Social Democracy has fulfilled its tasks, hereby becoming superfluous. I know there is always the possibility of changes in the future, and I won't deny the trend might reverse some day. But right now, I simply see no starting point for such a shift.

I am familiar with this argument as it is one that people have been making for nearly sixty years. I believe that this fact speaks for itself.

It is true, of course, that the great changes in the economic, political, ideological and social structures of 'the West' over the past thirty or so years have been highly damaging to the electoral prospects of most socialist parties. It would, of course, be pointless and delusional to deny this (which is why no one actually does). But there is a fundamental difference between electoral decline as a result of a changing 'climate' and political death (or near death) as a result of it. Notably the parties that the latter applied (apply) to were (are) the various Communist ones. They had their feet cut from under them, poor devils (not that they were actually poor, of course, lol).

Moreover, these huge changes are over now (by and large). You can't make sweeping claims about the future based on fundamental changes that have already happened. Additionally, you have to distinguish between long term decline caused by factors out of the control of the parties in question, and poor electoral performances caused by mistakes in government (particularly those of the type that alienate natural supporters. And it is undeniably true that social democratic governments have been 'good' at doing that lately), or lousy political strategies or whatever. Finally, the claim that there is 'no one left who could or should vote for a Social Democratic party' is beyond absurd. Take a proper look around you for God's sake.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The problem with social democracy and its popular support, is that they now prefer the rich, the filthily wealthy corporate types, to the actual people. Not a good way to keep popular support.

One wonders what sort of people it is that Trotskyist sects prefer, or even if they are in any position to lecture others on keeping popular support.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That kind of thing is very common in mass postal balloting (i.e. for party, union, or any constitutional society elections or for strike ballots and so on). Don't read too much into it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's hard to think of a less relevant issue.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Presumably you'd also rather they turned up for the oaths in donkey jackets?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why are people here so negative on the SPD?

At a guess the issue is that while all traditional socialist parties have a marked tendency towards the bureaucratic, the SPD has even more of a 'men in grey suits' feel to it than most. Particularly when it lacks a halfway charismatic leadership, which is the case currently.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They're to the right of most European mainstream-left parties

I don't think that's actually true. What they are is (currently) duller and (always) more overtly in favour of order and stability than most of their actual and also official sister parties.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, its hard to measure those things, but what major European mainstream-left (=main centre-left) parties do you consider to be a) to the right of the SPD b) equally right winged?

I would consider SPD to be clearly to the right of PS, PSOE and all the Scandinavian SDs and slightly to the right of Labour.

Irish Labour is to their right, but who else?

Irish 'Labour' have eliminated their right to be considered as part of the question, at least for the moment. Actually they may well soon join the exalted ranks of ironically named political parties.

Anyway, the PS is excellent when it comes to fiery rhetoric, but this rhetoric tends not to match up to reality. The Flanby government's idea of a radical economic programme is a handful of populist policies (that don't seem to have been particularly popular) and literally nothing else. French politics does tend to exist in its own bizarre universe, of course, and it is one in which up can indeed sometimes be down, but I dispute the idea that the PS is a notably left-wing party of the Left even if it likes to pretend to be one. The PSOE is really only radical on issues relating directly to the legacy of the Civil War and to culture war clashes with the PP; they're well to the right of the SPD in practice.

British Labour is weird in that it has always included a much wider range of opinions than the norm; basically I'd argue that the way things currently appear is really more a case of observing that the Left of the SPD is kind of semi-marginalised at present, whereas in Britain most Left factions back the current leadership. Things have been different in the past and presumably will be in the future.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Not talking about history here. But if we where: Nordic SDs have hardly been more Socialist in theory than British Labour were pre-New Labour.

Of course if we're talking about in theory, then British Labour was never an official Marxist party (unlike most of its continental cousins).

Though it abandoned Utopia much later than basically everyone else (the SPD being basically first on that score). Have the SPÖ actually done that yet, anyone?

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Well, they're less marginalised than the Labour Left was in the mid 1950s

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, like the average football club owner.

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The only SPD districts belongs to Gotha

Haha, that's perfect.

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Incredibly poor result for the CDU.

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Well, yes, but the last Hamburg state election was an SPD landslide as well. Normal service has very much reasserted itself.

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The new Die Republikaner then.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though equally you need to be careful about reading too much into poll internals, particularly at a midpoint stage in a parliamentary term.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...or Pakistanis/Bengalis in the UK.

Who don't actually form a single voting bloc either (and there are also Gujarati Muslims, and if we're talking of London then the Turkish Cypriots, the Turks, the Kurds...) even if sometimes there is related electoral movement.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

BaWü has the weirdest state-level politics right now...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Would suggest that its kind of a bit early in the day to drawn grand predictions of the future.