German Elections & Politics

[Gustaf]

Yeah, 3 years is the right term length. It's such a shame Sweden got rid of 3-year terms in the 90s.

Hm, I'm not convinced. I think 3 years gives too little time from when you've settled in and can start implementing reforms until it's time for an election campaign again.

[Gustaf]

Pretty remarkable that the NPD is down from 4,6% (in 2011) to 1% in a time when one would expect them to thrive. Whether you agree with the AfD or not, we can probably all agree that it is a good thing that they are able to attract such voters and weaken the electoral position of the literal nazis.

oh, quite the opposite. it is unambiguously a bad thing that the afd is granting them legitimacy.

I think it depends - in theory there is a case for either side. Forcing extremists into a more moderate fold can mitigate their impact by forcing them closer to the centre. On the other hand, it can also increase their impact if they can use a bigger party as a vehicle for their ideas and policies.

[Gustaf]

Polls released over the past two days...

GMS: CDU-CSU 37, SPD 22, AfD 10, FDP 9, Left 9, Greens 8
FG Wahlen: CDU-CSU 36, SPD 21.5, AfD 11, FDP 10, Left 8.5, Greens 8
SPON: CDU-CSU 36, SPD 22, AfD 10, Left 10, FDP 10, Greens 8
Forsa: CDU-CSU 36, SPD 22, AfD 11, FDP 9.5, Left 9.5, Greens 7
YouGov: CDU-CSU 36, SPD 23, Left 10, AfD 10, FDP 9, Greens 7
Emnid: CDU-CSU 35, SPD 22, AfD 11, Left 10, FDP 9, Greens 8
INSA: CDU-CSU 34, SPD 21, AfD 13, Left 11, FDP 9, Greens 8

Have rounded except for when figures are given as X.5

And also there's YouGov's model which has...

CDU-CSU 36, SPD 25, AfD 12, Left 10, FDP 7, Greens 7

This looks herded af.