German Elections & Politics

[tpfkaw]

But wouldn't that lead to the CDU/CSU being at a severe disadvantage in the FPTP seats?

[tpfkaw]

But wouldn't that lead to the CDU/CSU being at a severe disadvantage in the FPTP seats?

IIRC, proportional seats are allocated to ensure that the total number of seats is proportional, not just the non-FPTP seats. They even go so far as to add seats to the legislature to ensure proportionality.

CDU/CSU could technically lose every FPTP seat and still get their fair share of seats.

1. CSU currently gets more seats than it "should" by sweeping the FPTP seats in Bavaria, and CDU isn't punished for that in the PR seats because they're separate parties.

2. The minor parties that never win FPTP seats (Grüne, Linke*, FDP and AfD if they get in) are also compensated out of the PR seats pool, leaving fewer PR seats left to compensate CDU/CSU.

*Linke does win a couple in former East Germany, I believe.

[tpfkaw]

CDU down to 34% in latest INSA-poll. FDP at 6, AfD at 10%.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

That's all very well but any way you slice it - it all just means that the next election will lead to another Merkel led "grand coalition" - no other government is viable

Grand coalition is at 58% in that poll and it's dropping. If it continues on the same trajectory (even at a slower pace) it's not going to be a majority anymore by 2017.

And Merkel might find it hard to stay on as party leader if they do worse than in 2009.

[tpfkaw]

Has this ever happened in the modern era?

It's how every social-democratic party in Europe became the main left-wing force, although not sure if that counts as "modern era." Or the Italian Socialist Party and the Italian Communist Party, for a more modern example.

[tpfkaw]

INSA

First poll showing a result where if the CSU refused to join, a grand coalition potentially wouldn't have a majority.

[tpfkaw]

I could imagine the SPD becoming more popular if they take a clear stance to Merkel's right on immigration, but that's a risky thing to do in Germany.

The Danish Social Democrats have tried that, with mixed/unclear results. It really wouldn't be possible for the SPD to walk back their position that far given "refugees welcome" and how maximalist and strident the German left's rhetoric has been. They would infuriate too many of their core supporters; it would be like if Hillary started attacking Obamacare from the right. Plus a very large percentage of the SPD vote is now coming from immigrants, and they would likely decamp to the Greens, Linke or maybe even CDU.

If for some reason they did go in that direction, and it would be very risky, probably the best way to finesse it would be to 1. replace the leader, 2. endorse immigration controls as part of a repudiation of "neoliberal" policies in general, and 3. announce they will not agree to another grand coalition, nor will they continue to honor the cordon sanitaire against Linke. Basically, position themselves along the lines of Andy Burnham, polarize German politics into camps, and stem the losses to the Greens and CDU by poaching from Linke and AfD. But most likely it would backfire.

[tpfkaw]

[...] Plus a very large percentage of the SPD vote is now coming from immigrants, [...]

I don't agree. At most 10% of people that are allowed to vote in German elections have a "migrational background" which includes having one foreign-born parent and the like. This also includes over 5 million ethnic German Spätaussiedler from the ex-USSR, Poland and Romania (ok, subtract the children), who certainly are not more pro-refugee than non-immigrants.
I would estimate that non-Spätaussiedler voters with "migrational background" make up about 4% of all German voters. About half of them might vote SPD, maybe less. So at most 10% (probably less) of current SPD voters are immigrants and their descendants. If that is a high percentage for you, then so be it.

The estimates I've seen are that 60-70% of German Muslims vote SPD, with the rest mostly going for the left as well. But 10% of a party's support is quite a lot; the Democrats or Republicans losing 10% of their support is the difference between a nailbiter like 2000 and a landslide like 1980 or 1996.

[tpfkaw]

CDU tanking in Baden-Württemberg (compared to January results from the same pollster):

CDU: 31 (-4)
Greens: 28 (0)
SPD: 14 (-1)
AfD: 12 (+2)
FDP: 8 (+2)
Left: 4 (+1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm

Looks to me like the only possible government in that scenario would be a Green-led "traffic light coalition" with the SPD and FDP - right?

That seems less plausible than CDU-Greens or CDU-SDP-FDP.