German Elections & Politics

[MAINEiac4434]

Shameless plug for Reddit.com/r/the_schulz

[MAINEiac4434]

No spoilers, please!


Anyway, here's the Infratest shock poll:

CDU/CSU 34% (-1)
SPD 28% (+5)
AfD 12% (-2)
Greens 8% (-1)
Left 8% (+-0)
FDP 6% (+-0)

 
 
That's the highest numbers the SPD had in an Infratest Poll since September 2013. If the three left wing parties reach 30/9/9 it would be enough to win the election and it can certainly work out as it seems right now. Well, color me surprised. I honestly thought there was no chance for change as long as Merkel was running. 
 
Even more impressive then that surge are the numbers for a theoretical direct chancellor election in the same poll: 
 
Schulz: 50% (+14%) 
Merkel 37% (-7%) 
 
This is the first time since Merkel took office - reminder: That was in November 2005 - that she lost such a poll.

I hope it sticks but it may just be a convention bump for Schulz.

[MAINEiac4434]

wagenknecht is - like her husband oskar lafontaine, the former most dangerous man of europe - a left-national-populist.
.

the "most dangerous man" thing wasn't my idea. ;p

I had no idea there was a German version of the Sun.

[MAINEiac4434]

HÖHE ENERGIE

[MAINEiac4434]

Martin Schulz was officially nominated as candidate for chancellor and as the new party leader of the SPD. He won 605 of 605 votes cast, and thus a result of 100%. That has never happened before in the SPD. He attacked Trump by saying: "Whoever labels free reporting as fake news, whoever deals with deals with the media selectively, applies the axe on the roots of democracy."

In his farewell speech, Gabriel indirectly endorsed Emanuel Macron for president in France by saying: "Imagine how we can change Europe if Martin Schulz becomes chancellor of Germany and Emanuel Macron becomes president of France!" Even though Hamon does not really have a chance in this race, Gabriel endorsed an independent candidate over the nominee of the SPD's sister party, which is notable IMO.

Well the Socialist Minister-President of Wallonia and de facto leader was at Hamon's rally, but apart from him and Corbyn (lol) I expect the leaders of the socialist parties in Europe to model themselves off the Macron-Schulz axis of social liberalism.

Our transformation to the false dichotomous form of American democracy is almost complete.

Isn't Schulz running on a fairly left-wing platform? He promised to roll back some of Agenda 2010's reforms, while Macron is running on a French version of Agenda 2010.

I too was under the impression that he was running to the left of previous SPD leaders. I mean it's clear he's no Corbyn or Hamon, but that doesn't make him Macron either.

[MAINEiac4434]

It's always funny to see how far-right nationalists don't seem to back far-right nationalists in other parties. I understand why Trump wasn't backed by AfD/PVV voters (the Republican party itself is almost as toxic as Trump over here) but Le Pen isn't really much different from Wilders or the current AfD leadership.

Perhaps a "theirs is crazy, ours is much more reasonable" reaction?

[MAINEiac4434]

So I don't think this is necessarily a repudiation of Schulz and the SPD. I think this is voters going with the trusted hand of the CDU in a time of great uncertainity.

[MAINEiac4434]

Bavaria is the single most pro-CDU/CSU state in the country, I think. I expect Merkel to be up bigly there.

[MAINEiac4434]

Spent the last three days collecting signatures but apparently we did it! Die PARTEI will be on the ballot in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and with that in all 16 states! Last election the party only made it onto 5 state ballots. With how hopeless many leftists are right now regarding the chances for R2G I think it will be at least 0,7% in September but if things go right I could see us getting 1% nationwide. In addition to Martin Sonneborn and Serdar Somuncu a few days ago Nico Semsrott was named as frontrunner in Berlin so that are quite some figureheads. Die PARTEI currently has 24.000 members by the way, the AfD for comparison has 28.000 members.

 

Die PARTEI are a joke party, while the AfD is a joke.

[MAINEiac4434]

'member Schulzmentum?

[MAINEiac4434]

Merkel will either have to side with the Greens or the AfD in addition to the FDP. Most likely greens first but to ensure a coalition she can't write off AfD completely

Merkel loathes AfD. She'd sooner form a new grand coalition than team up with them.

[MAINEiac4434]

I mean, Merkel's position on asylum seekers obviously marks her out as a massive authoritarian guys...

well her position on gay marriage does. i love how liberals didn't say anything when their queen merkel was against gay marriage, but when trump ban transsexuals from army, they got triggered so hard lol

Yeah, but Merkel never tweeted this:

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/742771576039460864?lang=en

[MAINEiac4434]

Greens: 78%
Left: 77%
SPD: 70%
FDP: 54%
CDU: 41%
AFD: 23%

[MAINEiac4434]

Wahl-o-Matic

LINKE: 77.6
BGE: 77.6
DKP: 75.0
DiB: 75.0
du.: 72.4
MLPD: 72.4
PARTEI: 72.4
PIRATEN: 71.1
SGP: 69.7
GRÜNEN: 68.4
TIERSCHUTZPARTEI: 68.4
MENSCHLICHE WELT: 68.4
PdH: 67.1
V-PARTEI³: 64.5
ÖDP: 64.5
TIERSCHUTZALLIANZ: 61.8
B*: 61.8
BüSo: 60.5
SPD: 57.9
Gesundheitsforschung: 53.9
FDP: 51.3
GRAUEN: 51.3
DM: 50
VOLKASBSTIMMUNG: 48.7
FREIE WÄHLER: 47.4
ADD: 47.4
CDU/CSU: 46.1
NPD: 44.7
BP: 43.4
PDV: 42.1
AfD: 34.2
RECHTE: 27.6

My opposition to brown-coal mining probably pushed down my SPD score, as the miners have long been an important SPD constituency, and upped my various green parties scores.

According to this I am also a literal communist, as I scored in the 70s for the DKP and MLPD.

[MAINEiac4434]

My washlswiper results:

[MAINEiac4434]

I want a Die PARTEI majority government now

[MAINEiac4434]

Wuh oh. New elections?

Probably a CDU/SPD grand coalition or a CDU Minority.

[MAINEiac4434]

@APHClarkson
Martin Schulz is targeting centrist, left liberal and Left wing voters the SPD is losing to the CDU, Greens and Linkspartei respectively. An appeal for a greater Europe works for all three. At this point integration-sceptics won't vote SPD anyway

SPD’s Martin Schulz wants United States of Europe by 2025

https://www.politico.eu/article/spds-martin-schulz-wants-united-states-of-europe-by-2025/

Good for the SPD to finally have something they stand for.

Are they trying to kill themselves

[MAINEiac4434]

In Fredeburg, however, where the Greens received a majority, the AfD ironically didn't get one single of the 27 votes. However, the PARTEI and the BGE (basic income party) received votes; hence it's a freedom municipality.

Grüne CDU SPD Die Partei FDP BGE

51,9 % 22,2 % 11,1 % 7,4 % 3,7 % 3,7 %

14 Stimmen 6 Stimmen 3 Stimmen 2 Stimmen 1 Stimme 1 Stimme

Well, I know where I'm moving when Trump reinstitutes the draft.