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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655341 times)
Vosem
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Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« on: December 22, 2013, 02:56:45 PM »

Slight bounce for the SPD in the first Infratest dimap poll since the new government took over.

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 9%
Linke: 8%

AfD: 4%
FDP: 4%
They should enjoy it while they can.  Hopefully, they'll drop to all-time lows very soon.  The SPD is dead for all true intents and purposes.

Why are people here so negative on the SPD?

They're to the right of most European mainstream-left parties (emphasis on the word 'European', of course), and there's a perception (that reminds me of similarly absurd ideas about the GOP, actually) that they're going to die out and be overtaken by the Greens.
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2014, 08:53:35 AM »

No sow needs the FDP? As in female pig? I don't get it.
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #2 on: February 15, 2015, 02:58:10 PM »


Fantastic! Very excited for the revival.
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2015, 02:12:24 PM »

What is dead can never die, but rises again, harder and stronger #FDP4ever
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #4 on: February 01, 2017, 11:23:47 AM »

It's going to be very funny when the AfD surge takes mostly from the CDU, causing the SPD to emerge as the larger party in the coalition and inadvertently electing Martin Schulz as Chancellor
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #5 on: February 07, 2017, 12:57:48 AM »

I'd probably be a regular FDP voter in Germany, including for this election, and I wouldn't be at all disappointed to see SPD-Grune-FDP. Merkel's is certainly a good person who's had a good run, and I wouldn't even be opposed to her getting another term, but Schulz, while further from me ideologically, seems like a man more suited to the current moment. I'd probably still tilt towards Merkel in a Direktwahl, but I don't think I'd be very upset if Schulz carried the day.
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #6 on: February 08, 2017, 10:31:03 PM »

I'd probably be a regular FDP voter in Germany, including for this election, and I wouldn't be at all disappointed to see SPD-Grune-FDP. Merkel's is certainly a good person who's had a good run, and I wouldn't even be opposed to her getting another term, but Schulz, while further from me ideologically, seems like a man more suited to the current moment. I'd probably still tilt towards Merkel in a Direktwahl, but I don't think I'd be very upset if Schulz carried the day.

Why, exactly, are you still a Republican in the US?

Variety of reasons. I live in Ohio, whose local Republican Party is currently governing the state and doing a very good job of it. There's also a few wedge issues (such as my continued strong pro-gun and strong pro-Zionist stances) that are keeping me on board as well. I don't think "economic liberalism", which tended to be (simplified) my answer for many years, really works, since it no longer seems very clear that the Republican Party is more economically liberal than the Democratic one (in fact, it hasn't really been clear in policy since the mid-'90s or so, but until the Trump candidacy at least the Republican Party tended to be more economically liberal in rhetoric).

So, for the moment I am likely to vote Democratic (for most candidates; Booker or Gillibrand I could become quite enthused about) or third-party (if the Democrats nominate Sanders or Warren or Merkley or some-such) presidentially in 2020, and very likely Democratic for the House in 2018-2020 (not that it would matter since I live in a Democratic vote-sink and Joyce Beatty is popular with a large crossover vote anyway, but still). I'd probably cast Democratic Senate votes in 2018-2020 in many states, but Rob Portman and whichever of Josh Mandel or Pat Tiberi get nominated in 2018 are good-quality Ohio Republicans and will get my vote; for our state legislature and most row positions (except maybe Secretary of State; the officer in charge of voting rights should probably be a Democrat during the Trump Administration; this'll depend on who's nominated as well) I'll probably continue voting Republican as well for the immediate future. There you have it.
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #7 on: March 27, 2017, 08:30:08 AM »

who the hell created the concept...of...."nordelbingen"? this sounds soooo great, i would instantly vote for it.

According to English Wikipedia, the chronicler Adam of Bremen recorded in 1076 AD that Nordalbingia is divided into three parts
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #8 on: September 15, 2017, 01:18:03 PM »

I actually think there's a decent chance Die PARTEI AfD-2013s this, as in performing best of the minor parties and then spinning that into a surge where they can get in to the various Landtags that are having elections next. Whether they decay quickly like the Pirates did or stick around, like the Greens and AfD, would remain to be seen.
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #9 on: September 20, 2017, 02:16:53 PM »

My rather audacious prediction is that the Greens will fail to make the threshold, necessitating the renewal of the Grosskoalition in spite of also fairly large CDU and SPD under-performances. FDP, AfD, Linke, and Sonstige (especially Die PARTEI) all get a banner year.
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Vosem
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*****
Posts: 15,622
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.13, S: -6.09

« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2018, 04:44:30 PM »

Number of constituencies has been reduced.

I wait parliament with 19 parties and about 5500 MPs.

Actually, if there were 19 parties in the Bundestag, there wouldn't probably be any overhang seats at all.

If one party gets everywhere slightly more votes than the rest of parties (and 300 direct seats) rest of parties were compensated with 300 seats for each party.

That would be possible but almost improbable.
If there were 19 parties in the Bundestag, each would have received ~5,2% of the vote and ~15 direct seats.


LOL, think of that: The largest party, at 5.4%, gets the chancellor.

The point where the threshold starts coming closer and closer to the results the actual parties get, and so you get serious parties -- contenders for government -- occasionally finishing below it, is a dangerous one for democracy; under those circumstances actual majorities can be reached with well under 50% of the vote. This was how the AKP rose to power in Turkey in the first place.

The German system can handle 6 serious parties like it has now, but it can't really reach more than about 10 or so without the identities of who finishes above and below the threshold starting to be more meaningful for the results than how much the actual parties get.
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