Seems that CDU+FDP got their majority in NRW because of massive voter fraud against AfD there. They might lose it if AfD gets a 17th seat (which would cost FDP one).
AfD members are reporting fraud with 30-40 mails daily, party is investigating, first success already reached.
Mostly it's because of votes given to other parties instead of AfD so that the party mostly got 0,0% of party list votes while having double digit constituency votes. I'm sure it was all only an accident... and yeah, also pure random that only AfD is suffering such "mistakes"...
http://mobil.stern.de/politik/deutschland/afd-in-nrw-kontrolliert-einzelne-stimmauszaehlungen-der-landtagswahl-7459858.html
I would say, it's mostly due to "transfer errors" and not double-checking the results.
Just look at a fairly typical ballot paper for the NRW election:
http://www.mik.nrw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Redakteure/Dokumente/Themen_und_Aufgaben/Buergerbeteiligung/Wahlen/2017landtagswahl/ltw17_musterstimmzettel.pdfThere's little chance to get the constituency votes for the AfD wrong, because there are only two candidates from "minor" parties and hence the AfD clearly sticks out.
But considering the party list votes the AfD is at no. 16 in the middle of 31 party lists, many of them probably getting exactly 0 votes. It's much easier to mix something up, hence I would expect the ADD (no. 15) and the Aufbruch C (no. 17) to be the main beneficiaries from tallying/transfer errors at the expense of the AfD.
I think, this amount of "lost votes" is fairly typical for a "minor" party running for the first time that gets a non-neligible share of the vote.
Of course, such a mistake should be detected at second glance, but from my personal experience as a poll worker many poll workers just want to finish the count and the transfer of the results to get home...
In the end the AfD will probably net a few hundred list votes while leaving the number of seats totally unchanged.
On the bright side: Next time around with the AfD as one of the "major" parties on top of the ballot paper such errors should be greatly diminished
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