German Elections & Politics

[Mike88]

So will there be a revival of SPD-Linke coalition, but this time with Grüne also?

[Mike88]

So will there be a revival of SPD-Linke coalition, but this time with Grüne also?

R2G (SPD-Green-Left) is the most likely coalition but there are other possibilities. Jamaica coalition (SPD-CDU-Greens) and Germany coalition (SPD-CDU-FDP) are also possible even though unlikely that SPD and CDU will join forces again after just losing more than 10% doing so. Maybe even the traffic light coalition (SPD-Greens-FDP) is possible, but with a really small majority.

With those many options and even though a SPD-Green-Left coalition is ,as you said, more likely, will it be stable to last 5 years?

[Mike88]

CDU at 42.4% and SPD at 29.7% right now. Any new seat projection?

[Mike88]

CDU at 42.4% and SPD at 29.7% right now. Any new seat projection?

 
 
Most likely 24 CDU, 17 SPD, 7 Linke, 3 AfD. The two largest cities Saarbrücken and Neuenkichen aren't in yet but something big would need to happen to give Red-Red the majority.

Saarbrücken is actually fully counted already.

There are still 6 cities to be counted, but i don't know where they are.

Also, can these results give any clues to the Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia elections in May? The SPD is ahead in both right now although the CDU slipped in the last few polls in both states.

[Mike88]

Civey poll. CDU/CSU 11% points ahead of SPD.

38% CDU/CSU
27% SPD
  9% LINKE
  9% AFD
  7% FDP
  6% GRUNE

[Mike88]

Exit Poll (changes):

[Mike88]

So it's official then. The Schulz-Zug has completely derailed I guess.

They still have North Rhine-Westphalia next week, but even there things don't look that great.

[Mike88]

Looks good for CDU and FDP. :-( 10 minutes to go.

Yeah ... wouldn't surprise me if the Kraft/Schulz train heads off the cliff in 5 minutes.

NRW has been referred to as the Greece of Germany ...

Wky is NRW compared to Greece??

[Mike88]

Schulz and SPD right now:

[Mike88]

Any link to follow the results?

[Mike88]

Swings:



Interesting swings in this election.

[Mike88]

Germany's Merkel Prefers New Elections Over Minority Government

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-20/germany-s-merkel-prefers-new-elections-over-minority-government-ja8f0ea5

Thats that I suppose, I guess we are getting new elections. However, what exactly is Merkel's goal here? Reduce the AfD vote to boost her numbers for a future coalition of CDU/CSU +FDP or Greens? Hope the voters punish one of FDP/Greens, and hope the numbers allow for a coalition woth the suvivor? Simply have a rehash of results that comfirms to the Jamaica partners that they are the only option?

Maybe she's hoping that this is all deja vu. Remember the Spanish election crisis 2015/16? Rajoy's PP was able to win some votes from C's and was the only party to win seats. Maybe she's hoping that some AfD voters will come home to CDU/CSU, adding to this a lower turnout that could depress vote share for FDP and Greens.

[Mike88]

Forsa poll:

[Mike88]

New Forsa poll:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1058766988691025921