German Elections & Politics

[Kingpoleon]

Former foreign minister (2009-13) and longtime FDP chairman (2001-11) Guido Westerwelle died today, aged 54.

Shortly after leaving office, he had been diagnosed with leukemia and was struggling with it ever since. While I was not a huge a fan of him politically, that was a pretty cruel fate he suffered.

He'll be remembered for being largely reponsible for both the FDP biggest electoral success and the party's biggest defeat in 2009 and 2013 respectively. He was also the first openly gay foreign minister of Germany.

Remarkable in that the entire German political spectrum seems to have come together to hate him for reasons that on the surface at least had nothing to do with his sexuality.

[Kingpoleon]

INSA :

tsssss… the chaos if black-red doesn't reach a national majority (which this poll claims we are two points away from!) will not be pleasant.

30.5+19.5=50%, no?

That said, Go FDP!

[Kingpoleon]

INSA :

tsssss… the chaos if black-red doesn't reach a national majority (which this poll claims we are two points away from!) will not be pleasant.

30.5+19.5=50%, no?

That said, Go FDP!

yes. a two-percent shift from 50/46 would make it 48/48

Got it.

[Kingpoleon]

Thanks for your great posts, Sozialliberal, and for replying to my post on AfD. If you're interested, we can discuss this by PM in order to prevent this thread from being derailed (but I also understand if you don't really care ).

Thanks, I do my best. Your posts in the Dutch elections and politics thread are not bad, either. We can discuss this by PM.

I'm curious, Sozialliberal: which party do you belong to in Germany? The FDP?

[Kingpoleon]

I'd probably be a regular FDP voter in Germany, including for this election, and I wouldn't be at all disappointed to see SPD-Grune-FDP. Merkel's is certainly a good person who's had a good run, and I wouldn't even be opposed to her getting another term, but Schulz, while further from me ideologically, seems like a man more suited to the current moment. I'd probably still tilt towards Merkel in a Direktwahl, but I don't think I'd be very upset if Schulz carried the day.

Why, exactly, are you still a Republican in the US?

Being a FDP/Democratic voter wouldn't make much sense...

[Kingpoleon]

there are not stable trends regarding the small parties atm,

you can only make out that the cdu is rising and the spd is falling, even while the cdu is rising much more than the spd is falling.

everything else is unclear and alle 4 small parties are in crisis.

Considering the instability of polling for small parties and that there's usually a 2-3% margin of error, is there a chance of all minor parties falling below the 5% threshold and having a parliament with just CDU/CSU and SPD?

Alternatively, what about not just the FDP, but also the Greens falling below 5% (ie a parliament with only AfD, CDU/CSU, SPD and Linke. I guess in that case a grand coalition would be basically guaranteed, with a small chance of SPD+Linke if they add up which isn't likely at all)

I would say it's more likely for FDP to get to their 2002 levels than it is for them to go below 5%.

[Kingpoleon]

Green Party says it will only be part of a coalition if the legalization of gay marriage is guaranteed: http://www.dw.com/en/german-greens-make-same-sex-marriage-guarantee-condition-of-coalition/a-39294421

Good for them. It's getting ridiculous.

I am definitely rooting for CDU/CSU-FDP-Greens, now.

[Kingpoleon]

A new federal election poll for Rheinland-Pfalz also shows devastating losses for the SPD compared with 2013, just like the 3 polls from the Eastern states above:





If these recent results are accurate, the CDU could actually improve on their 2013 numbers Germany-wide, while the SPD could get an even lower result ...

I'm hoping for a FDP/Green/SPD surge at the expense of CDU/CSU. It's the only realistic way to get a CDU-FDP-Green coalition.

[Kingpoleon]

I know it's very much a long stretch but would CDU/CSU even consider having the AfD join? (I know it's a pretty strange thing since the AfD is like the anti-Merkel

No, they wouldn't.

Would they just go for a grand coalition again or do a German flag coalition or a Jamaica coalition?

If possible, a Jamaica coalition would be preferable to the traffic light, German flag, or grand coalition.

[Kingpoleon]

Where is the most conservative part of Germany located?

The most conservative+populist right areas in Germany are in Bavaria, southern Baden-Württemberg, the state of Saxony and the area around Cloppenburg-Vechta in Lower Saxony (close to the border to the Netherlands). Those are all areas in which the CDU/CSU got more than 55% and/or in which the AfD did really well too.

The North-South divide from the days of the Confederation still exists(the former Prussian lands and Prussian allies vs. the areas of Austrian influence, Bavaria, Baden, Württemberg, and Saxony).

[Kingpoleon]

If you take the aggregate poll data you get this breakdown of seats:



Black-yellow are 12 seats short of a majority, a leftist coalition would need 55 additional seats. And remember when red-green was a thing? They're a remarkable 118 seats short of a governing majority.

Would this probably lead to a Jamaica coalition, with a majority of forty?

[Kingpoleon]

https://deutschland.isidewith.com/en/results/3292000083

[Kingpoleon]

What's going to happen for the Cabinet? Will Lindner get the foreign department and the Greens get the finance minister?

[Kingpoleon]

What's going to happen for the Cabinet? Will Lindner get the foreign department and the Greens get the finance minister?

Try to ask that question again in, maybe, two months from now. Perhaps three.

So far, it's unclear whether there even will be a Jamaica cabinet. If it comes to that, it's a process that's gonna take weeks or even months. First, there are gonna be rounds and rounds of negotiations which will determine if all four governing parties can find common ground... with both the Greens and the CSU at the table, that's not gonna be easy. If all parties can - in theory - agree on a coalition, both FDP and Greens will also let all their members have a vote on it. That too is something that needs time to be organized and executed.

What do you think a coalition agreement will be like? What would an agreement between the FDP and Greens on economics look like?

[Kingpoleon]

Either the Jamaica Coalition will not last the full term or both the Greens and FDP will be wiped out at the next election imo.

What if the two purposefully pull their support after convincing Merkel to hold a vote on some omnibus bill for the environment and social issues, in which the two win out in the vote?