German Elections & Politics

[Zinneke]

Where can we find recent polling for Bremen and Hamburg?

Here.

But:

The most "recent" polls from Hamburg and Bremen are already several months/half a year old, which makes them meaningless, considering AfD's recent surge.

AfD will crash in Hamburg for sure, they profit the most from EU. I'm not sure about Bremen's demographics but keep in mind these are two free cities we are talking about and not regions. AfD took votes of Die Linke in the urban centres of the two states here so I can only see the making inroads in Bremen where Die Linke did well 10 years ago.

[Zinneke]

  About 15% of the vote went to parties that failed to win any seats, assuming the Greens don't. The 5% rears its ugly head again.

Don't know if it's an ugly head. I don't mind sacrificing the Greens and the FDP if it means the Nazis don't get in.

(inb4 "the nazis did get in" )

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cordon_sanitaire#In_politics

[Zinneke]

Anybody have the results for Rostock?

[Zinneke]

   The party breakdown by whether immigration is advantageous or not is interesting. I'm surprised that so many Green voters viewed it negatively, and would have thought that Linke supporters would have been a little less supportive as well.

I'd be one of them.

[Zinneke]

   Klartext, agreed about problems with thresholds.  But, in the last federal election it was kind of like a perfect storm, where both FDP and AFD came so close to crossing the 5% line but just missed it.  Wonder how many right leaning voters who supported another party in that election regretted not helping the AFD over the finish line.

A 4% threshold seems like a more reasonable target to reach. The last election was won by the right, but one couldn't know that from the results.

There's no such thing as "the" right.

Yeah, this is something people from countries with a sharp left/right divide often don't get about politics in countries like Germany or the Netherlands.

And yet the last 2 election in those countries were fought on a black and white, left or right basis.

Then they allied with each other.

[Zinneke]

Well, INSA made the same poll for BILD and it Shows a very different picture:

"Whom would you vote for?

Merkel 36,6%
Schulz 22,9%
None of them 30,4%
Don't know 8,1%
Refused 1,9%

Excluded Dk and R:

Merkel 40,7%
Schulz 25,5%
None 33,8%


Well, I guess he's getting a few nice polls from the governments channels and from SPD-Forsa, but there's a big Information campaign going on in the social networks about Schulz and therefore it won't last long.

You shilling for Merkel now, Klartext?

[Zinneke]

Yeah, I've read several articles with Schulz covering for his MEPs and their corruption.

[Zinneke]

Gauland and others argue that there is no way the expulsion will be backed by the party's court of arbitration. Hence they voted against it. I personally think Höcke is a liability, but let's just once again make it clear that "monument of shame" didn't refer to the monument itself but to the acts behind it. The guy has a rather checkered past and I do think the party would be better off w/o him but ultimately this expulsion will fail because he will be able to make the case that I have just presented.

Cool. What do you think of Sankt Pauli's banner about the Dresden bombings?

[Zinneke]

Martin Schulz was officially nominated as candidate for chancellor and as the new party leader of the SPD. He won 605 of 605 votes cast, and thus a result of 100%. That has never happened before in the SPD. He attacked Trump by saying: "Whoever labels free reporting as fake news, whoever deals with deals with the media selectively, applies the axe on the roots of democracy."

In his farewell speech, Gabriel indirectly endorsed Emanuel Macron for president in France by saying: "Imagine how we can change Europe if Martin Schulz becomes chancellor of Germany and Emanuel Macron becomes president of France!" Even though Hamon does not really have a chance in this race, Gabriel endorsed an independent candidate over the nominee of the SPD's sister party, which is notable IMO.

Well the Socialist Minister-President of Wallonia and de facto leader was at Hamon's rally, but apart from him and Corbyn (lol) I expect the leaders of the socialist parties in Europe to model themselves off the Macron-Schulz axis of social liberalism.

Our transformation to the false dichotomous form of American democracy is almost complete.

[Zinneke]

Haha no way Martin Schulz isn't a social liberal, despite what he said. The same guy who raged on about backroom deals in Europe during the spitzenkandidaten debates yet received his position because of a...backroom deal. Sorry but I won't believe a word that comes out of his mouth, unless you show me voting records to the contrary.

[Zinneke]

Discuss!

I don't get the SPD's stance on TTIP/CETA

Also lol at Boateng

[Zinneke]

The point is that he gets a paragraph of attention.

[Zinneke]

How big of a mistake did the SPD commit by suggesting a R-R-G coalition?

[Zinneke]

  That first poster is taken from the Polish government playbook, in that Szydlo's government has rejected taking in non-European migrants, and instead have passed the Family 500+ law with the direct idea of raising the Polish population through a higher birth rate rather than through immigration.

All European countries should follow that approach.

How do you expect young people to have more babies than the boomers with lower living standards?

[Zinneke]

Has Der dritte Wege been banned?

 
 
No party has been banned since the KPD in 1956. They simply don't run this election, neither do other quite well known parties such as the Anti-Islam party "Pro Deutschland", the Erdogan-allied "BIG" or Lucke's new party "LKR". 
 

I have to say that I don't understand how Germans, after all of the horrendous experiences with non-democratic alternatives both on the left and on the right, can vote for a party like Die PARTEI that is intended to satirize politics but, by extension, inevitably satirizes democracy. I personally think voting for parties like these subconsciously leads to an erosion of trust in the democratic process with the general public and is more harmful to democracy than abstaining.

 
 
Die PARTEI is not anti-democratic at all so I don't understand the comparison with the likes of the NSDAP and the SED. They aren't even particularly against the system, they just see flaws in the system and display them in a satirical way. Furthermore if you get a little more into the party it is pretty clear that they have a democratic socialist core and idea and I'd say the majority of their voters knows that pretty well. Also their elected representatives take their positions quite serious and work hard to do a good job. Satire is really only a means to an end. It doesn't erode the democratic system, it adds something new. Why must politics always be boring? In fact I think it can reach people and get them politically engaged who'd normally not vote. Some political scientists describe parties like Die PARTEI as a gateway drug into the political discourse. I think that's pretty fitting when you see that 7% of the first time voters in Berlin voted for them last year - more then for the FDP and equally as many as for the AfD.

I have always perceived Die Partei as the closest thing to a Situationist party. Those first time voters are too often described as anti-political when there is much more to them.

Also speed legalisation is an objectively good policy.

[Zinneke]

Hi, as an actual member of Die Linke maybe my (slightly biased) insights might be helpful. Today we put up election posters in the West-Berlin neighbourhood of Moabit. We had quite some positive feedback there especially from people with immigrant background and young people. I think we are going to gain some votes there. On the other hand we are going to lose some votes in the east, to the AfD and also because the old party members and supporters there are slowly dying off.
In the end I think we will get between 8-10% if nothing major happens.
Sorry for being a long-time lurker...

Welcome to the forum! Good luck with the campaign.

[Zinneke]

SPD 72%
Grune 62%
Linke 54%
FDP 52%
CDU/CSU 50%
AfD 38%

[Zinneke]

By the way, this topic has surpassed the France 2012 election thread in views and is now the most-viewed thread on the International Elections board ever. 🤗🏆

France 2017 got deleted tho.

[Zinneke]

By the way, this topic has surpassed the France 2012 election thread in views and is now the most-viewed thread on the International Elections board ever. 🤗🏆

France 2017 got deleted tho.

If we add up "Austrian Politics" 1.0, 2.0 and 3.0 - this combined megathread would have 480.000 views, compared to 300.000 for the German thread.

Let's not tho

[Zinneke]

By the way, this topic has surpassed the France 2012 election thread in views and is now the most-viewed thread on the International Elections board ever. 🤗🏆

France 2017 got deleted tho.

too many #hottakes about how Marine Le Pen was the real left winger

It's a shame because I liked the comment of some R-XX guy saying that with Fillon doing badly the French Right should look for up and coming patriotic figures or something and cited Jean-François Copé as an example...that was a genuinely funny post.

[Zinneke]

Did a prominent AfD member really just say that the Germans should be proud of what they did in both World Wars?

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2017/09/14/afd---wees-fier-op-wat-duitse-soldaten-deden-in-de-twee-wereldoo/

(sorry could only find dutch)

Also, what kind of scores have the FDP achieved in East Germany in the past? Have they ever had a real surge in support there?

By the way, this topic has surpassed the France 2012 election thread in views and is now the most-viewed thread on the International Elections board ever. 🤗🏆

France 2017 got deleted tho.

too many #hottakes about how Marine Le Pen was the real left winger

It's a shame because I liked the comment of some R-XX guy saying that with Fillon doing badly the French Right should look for up and coming patriotic figures or something and cited Jean-François Copé as an example...that was a genuinely funny post.

Wasn't that Kingpoleon? I remember asking for potential future LR candidates and he responded with naming some people of which even I knew that just wasn't going to happen (I believe he even cited Dupont-Aignan, but I'm not sure). It also could have been someone else though.

Well to be fair, no-one would have predicted that Flanby would win a second term; and that's basically what happened...

I´m not sure it was Kingpoleon, it had a Florida flair I think...

[Zinneke]

Have Die Linke ran a generally good campaign?

[Zinneke]

Again, none of this would even matter if what was written in the constitution was properly applied to asylum seekers:

1) Persons persecuted on political grounds shall have the right of asylum.

(2) Paragraph (1) of this Article may not be invoked by a person who enters the federal territory from a member state of the European Communities or from another third state in which application of the Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and of the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Fundamental Freedoms is assured.

Correct.

These economic migrants (and most of them who came are) cannot pick and choose the country they wanna go to, just because they think milk and honey are provided to them ...

Asylum seekers have the right to request asylum in the neighboring countries, but certainly not move through 10 safe countries before their destiny of choice.

This needs to be stopped and the only way is to send a signal by cutting down the welfare payments to illegal economic migrants to zero - to scare them off. Only then will the message spread to Africa and the Middle East, where the impoverished masses are waiting to hop over to Europe. And the smuggler's work will be destroyed too.

If I was an Eritrean wanting to move to Europe, I don't think the existence or not of welfare payments would really factor into my decision. The real solution is to do something about Libya, so that it becomes less of a sfe haven for every type of criminal, smuggler and gangster

I think the Germans never gave approval to the Libyan regime change in 2011 so they don't see it as their burden, and rightly so. I don't think even the Germans in Brussels (who are usually the most pro-"European Neighbourhood" people that actually believe in a German Foreign Policy) want to get involved. They're fine funding an EU Border Assistance Program led by the Italians. For any EU mission to stabilise Libya internally to happen there needs to be an actual recognised regime who invites EU intervention, because the UN sure as hell won't approve Western intervention in Libya. 

If I were German I would mainly look at France and the UK and say "take responsibility". Merkel was naive to think an EU-plan for refugees could come about, not to adopt a pro-refugee stance.

[Zinneke]

Other state leaders like Berlin Mayor Michael Müller also expressed concern on a grand coalition. I think in the end, the base will vote down any coalition agreement, especially since the negotiation results are pretty weak (unlike in 2013). I'll also vote against it and don't know many people in my party here at the base that are in favor of a grand coalition.

I disagree completly - I am 100% certain, that the members will vote for the "grand" coalition.

What's the composition of the membership like? A lot of young SPD friends on Facebook I have have set their profile pics to the "GegenGroKo" - how relevant will they be? Or is their younger cohort considerably to the left of the party as a whole

[Zinneke]

So, let me get this straight:

* Merkel/CDU-CSU was expected to win easily, but then had a very mediocre (= bad) election result and got humiliated.

* She then limped along to talk with the FDP and Greens, which failed utterly.

* The SPD had a chance to go into opposition and rebuild and let Merkel "auflaufen" (= in English something like "let herself disassemble along the way").

* Instead, the SPD chose to betray voters and start talks with her and contrary to Merkel it's now themselves who are aufgelaufen (=> hitting the wall at full speed in this split vote).

How stupid is the SPD ?

Schulz comes from a political culture (the EU) where he benefited greatly from his GroKo with the EPP, and he never had to look over his shoulder electorally. Also, I think his speech indicated that it was only to pursue the talks.

I personally, despite not wanting the GroKo, understand the political logic behind it, especially after what one of the German posters said on here about the average age of the SPD rank and file.