German Elections & Politics

[sirius3100]

Since there is a 3 % hurdle in the EP election both FDP and AFD Will have seats there. Amy news which group AFD Will join? ECR or EFD?!

1. I expect the AFD to do way better at the EU election next year with them being one of the few options eurosceptic voters have. It wouldn't surprise me if they get a result in the double digits.
2. It isn't clear if there really will be a 3% treshold. In my opinion it is likely that the constitutional court will rule against that treshold.

I haven't read any news regarding your real question.

[sirius3100]

Your prediction will be crappy because of the low turnout anyway

I've no idea how you expected a higher turnout than the last time. There has been basically no real campaigning for this election. Here is my prediction I made at wahlrecht.de yesterday (I also didn't expect such a extremly low turnout, so especially the number for the NPD might be too low and for the Left too high):

CDU: 40,5%
Left: 18,5%
SPD: 15,0%
FDP: 3,0%
Greens: 6,0%
NPD: 5,0%
AFD: 7,5%

[sirius3100]

They got the exemption because Christoph Schulze won a FPTP seat. At the federal level you need 3 FPTP seats so that the 5% treshold isn't applied (basically assuring that the CSU will always get in the Bundestag) but in Brandenburg one seat is enough.

[sirius3100]

It's interesting that the Alliance has not put the slightest dent on the CDU's numbers.

Alliance?

Also Forsa tends to always have the poll results which are most newsworthy. Once elections near the are more or less in line with the other pollsters, but I don't really trust Forsa results when the next election is far away.

[sirius3100]

mafo.de also made a poll for the Hamburger Morgenpost:

SPD: 42%
CDU: 22%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 8%
AFD: 6%
Neue Liberale: 3%
FDP: 2%
Others: 3%


I'm very happy about the result of the Neue Liberale (New Liberals) in this poll. I hoped that they would get 1% in the actual election, and thus secure public funding. But now there seems to be a real chance that they could get above the 5% threshold. It's the first time that they have been mentioned in a poll, and in the past that and the then increased media coverage sometimes lead to considerable momentum.

[sirius3100]

My Wahl-O-Mat Hamburg results:

76.0%  SPD
72.9%  Piraten
72.9%  Rentner
71.9%  Liberale
70.8%  Die Linke
69.8%  ÖDP
66.7%  Grüne
66.7%  FDP
65.6%  Die Partei
61.5%  CDU
57.3%  HHBL
47.9%  AfD
33.3%  NPD

[sirius3100]

Let me add my prediction:

45% SPD
18% CDU
13% Greens
8% Left
6% AFD
5% FDP
2% Liberals
1% Pirates
2% Others

Turnout: 51%

[sirius3100]

According to NDR (http://www.ndr.de/info/Letzter-Trend-vor-der-Wahl-in-Hamburg,audio233088.html; audio only) a last (unpublished) poll by Infratest dimap shows a downward trend for the AFD and an upward trend for FDP. So the AFD might miss the required 5%.