German Elections & Politics

[President Johnson]

I think it's evident now that SPD will follow other social democratic parties in Europe and become a minor party in most states and at the federal level. I'd be surprised if we get to 15% in the next federal election.

[Tender Branson]

"Looking at the CSU-result in the state election, was [...] helpful or not helpful ?"

Horst Seehofer: 13% helpful, 65% hurt, 19% played no role.
Angela Merkel: 14% helpful, 42% hurt, 41% played no role.

"Looking at the SPD-result in the state election, was [...] helpful or not helpful ?"

Natascha Kohnen 10% helpful, 81% hurt, 7% played no role.
Hillary Clinton: 9% helpful, 70% hurt, 20% played no role.

[TheSaint250]

I think it's evident now that SPD will follow other social democratic parties in Europe and become a minor party in most states and at the federal level. I'd be surprised if we get to 15% in the next federal election.

I think it can still rebound. A party that's been around for so long as one of the big two won't fall that quickly.

[DavidB.]

ARD just showed a voter movement analysis. Greens won 210.000 votes from SPD, 200.000 from CSU and 140.000 from new/nonvoters.

If the Greens won 200k voters from the CSU, either CSU has gained some votes from other parties (pretty unlikely?) or CSU -> AfD voter movement has been more limited, with a lot of non-voters opting for AfD. Which doesn't seem to be an unreasonable idea given that this happened in the federal election too.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I think it's evident now that SPD will follow other social democratic parties in Europe and become a minor party in most states and at the federal level. I'd be surprised if we get to 15% in the next federal election.

The retention of the "grand" coalition will have been your downfall...

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The Greens have won Munich.

villages - small-towns - medium-sized town - cities for the Greens (compared with 2013):

[windjammer]

Well,

Isn't Afd's score lower than expected?

[President Johnson]

I think it's evident now that SPD will follow other social democratic parties in Europe and become a minor party in most states and at the federal level. I'd be surprised if we get to 15% in the next federal election.

I think it can still rebound. A party that's been around for so long as one of the big two won't fall that quickly.

Of course, but our personell isn't smart enough. This plus structural problems make me not very optimistic.

[DavidB.]

Well,

Isn't Afd's score lower than expected?

Yes, and it's because CSU turned so far to the right that even someone like me could happily vote for them.

Of course, but our personell isn't smart enough. This plus structural problems make me not very optimistic.

The SPD is simply filled with boomers who care more about stability than about ideology and who care more about the country than the party. It's exactly the same as in the PvdA.

[TheSaint250]

I think it's evident now that SPD will follow other social democratic parties in Europe and become a minor party in most states and at the federal level. I'd be surprised if we get to 15% in the next federal election.

I think it can still rebound. A party that's been around for so long as one of the big two won't fall that quickly.

Of course, but our personell isn't smart enough. This plus structural problems make me not very optimistic.

Could you see yourself breaking with the party in one election or elections?

[Aurelio21]

@republicanbayer
My Intention certainly is not to attack you. Just try to applicate for a job at your local municipal Administration without being member of the CSU /perceived as CSU-affiliate and having no mentor. Or try starting a small business without  being connected to your local CSU. This applies of course not only for Bavaria, that's the way it is everywhere else except the political party may be different.

As the post-election analysis shows, my assessment of the source of the Green voters appears to be somewhat correct (substancial former SPD AND CSU crossover voters).

CSU at 35 %, AfD at 11, FW at 11 but above AfD, SPD under 10 %, FDP struggling with 5 %. Just wait as the exit poll did not ask for BP. I underestimated the Greens as they usually underperform the pre-election polls.

[President Johnson]

I think it's evident now that SPD will follow other social democratic parties in Europe and become a minor party in most states and at the federal level. I'd be surprised if we get to 15% in the next federal election.

I think it can still rebound. A party that's been around for so long as one of the big two won't fall that quickly.

Of course, but our personell isn't smart enough. This plus structural problems make me not very optimistic.

Could you see yourself breaking with the party in one election or elections?

Probably not unless we have a hard leftward shift as Labor in the UK.

If something like En Marche, a social liberal pro-EU party, would emerge, I may consider switching parties (would have if I was French). The FDP is a bit too economically liberal/libertarian for my taste.

[DavidB.]

Or try starting a small business without  being connected to your local CSU. This applies of course not only for Bavaria, that's the way it is everywhere else except the political party may be different.

What? Given that this is Bavaria, not Belarus, this seems like complete nonsense to me, with all due respect. And it's absolutely not the way it is everywhere. Anybody can start a business here without any political connection at all. I'm pretty sure it's exactly the same in Germany.

[Diouf]

ARD just showed a voter movement analysis. Greens won 210.000 votes from SPD, 200.000 from CSU and 140.000 from new/nonvoters.

If the Greens won 200k voters from the CSU, either CSU has gained some votes from other parties (pretty unlikely?) or CSU -> AfD voter movement has been more limited, with a lot of non-voters opting for AfD. Which doesn't seem to be an unreasonable idea given that this happened in the federal election too.

ARD just showed some of the figures for CSU. They lost 200.000 to Greens, 180.000 to AfD and 180.000 to FW. 210.000 voters were gained from new/non voters

[SunSt0rm]

[DavidB.]

Interesting. So the higher turnout has mostly benefited CSU and AfD. The 240k "other" voters who went AfD are mostly REP (117k votes in 2013) + NPD (75k votes in 2013, which is an insane lot if you think about it) voters and then probably some Pirates/Franken voters I guess.

[Tender Branson]

Vote by age:



Vote by gender:



Vote by education (low vs. high):



Blue collar workers:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

CSU  ⟾ 200,000 Greens
CDU  ⟾ 180,000 AfD
CSU  ⟾ 180,000 FW

210,000 non-voters  ⟾ CSU

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Vote by age:

The SPD voters are literally dying away.

[Tender Branson]

CSU  ⟾ 200,000 Greens
CDU  ⟾ 180,000 AfD
CSU  ⟾ 180,000 FW

210,000 non-voters  ⟾ CSU

I think the main reason why the CSU both lost a lot of their voters to the Greens, FW and AfD - while also gaining a lot of former non-voters is because the 2013 election was during a time with a good economy (like now), but with no coalition troubles and infighting. Germans like consensus-politics and no fights, that's why the CSU lost their "center" voters to the other parties. On the other hand, more hardline voters on immigration who have never voted before, chose the CSU this time, because they think the AfD as too extreme ...

[jaichind]

CSU  ⟾ 200,000 Greens
CDU  ⟾ 180,000 AfD
CSU  ⟾ 180,000 FW

210,000 non-voters  ⟾ CSU

I think the main reason why the CSU both lost a lot of their voters to the Greens, FW and AfD - while also gaining a lot of former non-voters is because the 2013 election was during a time with a good economy (like now), but with no coalition troubles and infighting. Germans like consensus-politics and no fights, that's why the CSU lost their "center" voters to the other parties. On the other hand, more hardline voters on immigration who have never voted before, chose the CSU this time, because they think the AfD as too extreme ...

This is opposite of what i would have expected.

[mgop]

csu-fw-fdp is probably new coalition. spd is so dead.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Second ARD projection:

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Second ZDF projection:

[President Johnson]

Seehofer now speaking. He didn't mention resigning at all.

csu-fw-fdp is probably new coalition. spd is so dead.

CSU-FW has currently a narrow majority. I think that will happen.