German Elections & Politics

[EPG]

With those German-wide numbers, Sunday will be absolutely brutal for the CSU and SPD in Bayern, but it will also be a signal to the CDU in Berlin ...

I guess if you are right, the anti-foreigner CSU line will mean they do well at the Bavaria election.

[President Johnson]

Terrible numbers. I hate the fact that we become a multi-party system similar to the Netherlands or Israel. This is leads to more instability. We need to adopt a majority votings system similar to the US or UK.

[Lord Halifax]

Terrible numbers. I hate the fact that we become a multi-party system similar to the Netherlands or Israel. This is leads to more instability. We need to adopt a majority votings system similar to the US or UK.

That would lead to a dominant-party system with CDU being the only truly national party and AfD, SPD, Linke and the Greens being their main opponents in different parts of the country.

It would force FDP to merge into CDU making it more economically right wing. So the dominant party would be further right than today. Why would you want that as a leftist? There would also be many constituencies in the east where it would be CDU vs. AfD and the center-left would be irrelevant.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominant-party_system

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Terrible numbers. I hate the fact that we become a multi-party system similar to the Netherlands or Israel. This is leads to more instability. We need to adopt a majority votings system similar to the US or UK.

But the House of Commons of the United Kingdom still consists of more parties than the German Bundestag.

[RedPrometheus]

I had to have a very stiff drink earlier when I saw the numbers

[pilskonzept]

Opening a book on which polling firm goes with 'no one over 20% and everyone basically statistically tied'.

Lowest odds on INSA, highest on Allensbach.

[Oryxslayer]

I had to have a very stiff drink earlier when I saw the numbers

If these were the results of  a hypothetical election, which is more likely: Jamaica or Kenya coalition?

[Former President tack50]

I had to have a very stiff drink earlier when I saw the numbers

If these were the results of  a hypothetical election, which is more likely: Jamaica or Kenya coalition?

Wouldn't a "Germany" (Black-Red-Yellow).coalition be more viable?

[EPG]

... ... If the numbers continue so, eventually some hardliner in the Union is going to start the long process of justifying Union - AfD - FDP. Of course AfD is currently verboten due to its neo-Nazi connections. But unlike (say) the current situation in Sweden, it is an obvious and coherent combination. It would have a strong internal majority for CSU, AfD and hardliners from CDU & FDP. Yet AfD is not sufficiently strong to scare Union & FDP into fearing total loss of control. And the hard part is to get is agreed. Then it becomes a self-sustaining process as like Lega or Trump they can pervert the media, security forces and defenders of the constitution.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Terrible numbers. I hate the fact that we become a multi-party system similar to the Netherlands or Israel. This is leads to more instability. We need to adopt a majority votings system similar to the US or UK.

I'm not sure, that FPTP would lead to the outcome, you desire, at the moment. It's only a good idea if you want the Polonisation of East German politics. The only party, that would disappear, ist the FDP. All six parties have their issue/cleavage-driven reasons to exist. And five have regional strongholds and cultural reasons to not disband, especially on the left. By the way, FPTP in Germany is only a good idea if you want the Polonization of East German Politics...And given the intra-camp dynamics it's actually the classical SPD that could be thrown under the bus in the long run. I don't think, that you find that desirable.


On the other hand, Germany has a tradition of multiparty politics and can cope with a six-party system.
Multiparty politics and coalition agreements are actually a far more flexible and stable way of governing, where more positions can be heard, then the 180-degree-turnaround-prone and polarizing winner-take-all system, that German political culture is not used to.
If you want to stop the traditional "people's parties" are eroding, you would have to take measeres to strengthen civic society and to solve the problems of growing inequality, not keeping them on artificial life support by an unjust electoral system. We still have the 5 percent threshold, btw.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

If these were the results of  a hypothetical election, which is more likely: Jamaica or Kenya coalition?

I think after Blondie's anti-social and infantile behavior a Jamaica coalition on the federal level will be dead for a generation.
Such an outcome would definitely lead to a Kenya coalition (though I prefer the term Afghanistan).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Wouldn't a "Germany" (Black-Red-Yellow) coalition be more viable?

Not as long as Lindner presides over the FDP. I can't imagine that any politician will some trouble with him again in the near future.

[Lord Halifax]

Terrible numbers. I hate the fact that we become a multi-party system similar to the Netherlands or Israel. This is leads to more instability. We need to adopt a majority votings system similar to the US or UK.

I'm not sure, that FPTP would lead to the outcome, you desire, at the moment. It's only a good idea if you want the Polonisation of East German politics. The only party, that would disappear, ist the FDP. All six parties have their issue/cleavage-driven reasons to exist. And five have regional strongholds and cultural reasons to not disband, especially on the left. By the way, FPTP in Germany is only a good idea if you want the Polonization of East German Politics...And given the intra-camp dynamics it's actually the classical SPD that could be thrown under the bus in the long run. I don't think, that you find that desirable.

Wouldn't CDU (incl. the FDP vote) be strong enough to make it a dominant-party system with different challengers in different parts of the country?

(see my post above)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Wouldn't CDU (incl. the FDP vote) be strong enough to make it a dominant-party system with different challengers in different parts of the country?

(see my post above)

There's just a snag to your idea: The FDP would never merge into the CDU, as they are too proud a party to deny their existence.
They would definitely have a realistic chance of winning one or two seats in Baden-Württemberg, or even in Schleswig-Holstein, where they're quite strong, too.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Final poll for Bavaria:

[Tender Branson]

42% (!) of those polled have still not decided on their vote choice with just 2 days to go ...

[FredLindq]

CSU+SPD
Or CSU+FW+FDP
Or Grune+SPD+FW+FDP

[Former President tack50]

Come to think about it, how is the Bayernpartei doing? Why did they do so well in 2013? And will they do at least that well this time (2%+) even if they don't have a chance to enter parliament?

[Tender Branson]

Come to think about it, how is the Bayernpartei doing? Why did they do so well in 2013? And will they do at least that well this time (2%+) even if they don't have a chance to enter parliament?

They are listed among the "other" small parties (about 4-6% combined).

Not sure if they'll get the 2% or more again this time, but considering that CSU and SPD are bleeding that much support, I would not rule it out.

I'm also not sure why they doubled their support in 2013 ... maybe it was because they got above 1% the last time and therefore received party financing and were present with posters in more towns ?

[pilskonzept]

Come to think about it, how is the Bayernpartei doing? Why did they do so well in 2013? And will they do at least that well this time (2%+) even if they don't have a chance to enter parliament?

They claim to be polling 6%.

I don't buy 6, but at least in lower Franconia, they certainly have a lot of billboards out.

[Tender Branson]

Austrian Chancellor Kurz (ÖVP) to speak at the CSU closing event in Munich very soon.

Merkel was not invited ...

(not sure if Kurz is any help for the CSU, because he only got 31.5% in the election here and the CSU is still polling higher at 33-35% - despite losing 15% ...)

[Beezer]

Are we still doing predictions? I feel like the Greens' support may be a tad inflated.

CSU: 37
Greens: 15.5
AfD: 12.5
FW: 10.6
SPD: 10.5
FDP: 6.5
Left: 3.5

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Are we still doing predictions? I feel like the Greens' support may be a tad inflated.

If we're doing predictions I'd like to know how many of Munich's nine congressional districts the Greens and the SPD will win. Will they even win some outside Munich?

[pilskonzept]

Are we still doing predictions? I feel like the Greens' support may be a tad inflated.

If we're doing predictions I'd like to know how many of Munich's nine congressional districts the Greens and the SPD will win. Will they even win some outside Munich?

election.de says four districts in Munich, one in Nuremberg, and Würzburg.

I'd say ten, but as Bavaria is a conservative state let's use conservative ways of counting: make it a dozen.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Are we still doing predictions? I feel like the Greens' support may be a tad inflated.

If we're doing predictions I'd like to know how many of Munich's nine congressional districts the Greens and the SPD will win. Will they even win some outside Munich?

election.de says four districts in Munich, one in Nuremberg, and Würzburg.

I'd say ten, but as Bavaria is a conservative state let's use conservative ways of counting: make it a dozen.

They also predict a FW in Forchheim (north of Nuremberg). That's interesting - and even possible, since the FW candidate Thorsten Glauber received 26.4% there in 2013 compared with Michael Hofmann's 37.4%. Now, after the downfall, Glauber has a realistic chance of winning - leading to a further humiliation both the SPD and the CSU will have to face.