German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

March 4, 2018 - The day the SPD died. You lose 11 points in the first GroKo, 5 points in the second one and then decide to get into this alliance for a third time? How goddamn stupid do you have to be in order to do that?

Well, at this rate they can still afford to enter another 3 GroKo's until they have reached 0% ...

[EPG]

March 4, 2018 - The day the SPD died. You lose 11 points in the first GroKo, 5 points in the second one and then decide to get into this alliance for a third time? How goddamn stupid do you have to be in order to do that?

Ever been a political party member?

It's not like being interested in polling numbers or being a writer on the Internet. Party members literally seek power over society. If you are a big old party without a new issue to put on the agenda, that usually means forming or supporting a government. The prospect of "maybe more seats, albeit maybe fewer, in 5 years" is usually not enough to override this basic preference for some power now.

[President Johnson]

March 4, 2018 - The day the SPD died. You lose 11 points in the first GroKo, 5 points in the second one and then decide to get into this alliance for a third time? How goddamn stupid do you have to be in order to do that?

All the seniors were convinced because the coalition agreement raises their benefits and indeed includes some positive things. Nevertheless, that was also the case in the previous grand coalitions with no success. Instead, the political extremes on the right and left get strenthened. Certainly not a strategic vote. RIP SPD.

[Former President tack50]

RIP SPD. Press F to pay respects. Sad to see Europe's oldest social-democratic party go out like this

Honestly, even if they wanted to put "country over party", was it so hard to force Merkel to lead a minority government? They could easily reach a deal where SPD promises to pass the next 3 budgets and a few important laws, while staying out of the government and having autonomy.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

2017 was SPD's lowest percentage of the vote since their 18.25% in 1933. I'm guessing that next time they go below that and have the worst showing since 1887.

[Oryxslayer]

RIP. I thought the party would have more balls and fight for it's survival. But I guess this is how it ends, not with a bang, but with a whimper.

[parochial boy]

Interesting thing is that, judging by recent polling, the left wing vote is still actually sitting at around 40%, which is barely different to the election - but Die Linke and the Greens have only seen marginal rises in response to the SPD's fall.

I guess the question is, if the SPD is as doomed as is being made out, and Germany maintains a 40%ish left wing vote, will Die Linke, the Greens or someone else manage to make some serious progess? Are do we wind up with three parties in the 10-15% range?

[TheSaint250]

The way I see it is that there are two possibilities from here (with another, more extreme result possibly happening):

1. The SPD collapses as it has in the past as a result of another Grand Coalition.  However, this collapse will probably be much more extensive than before.
     1a. The SPD falls so much that AfD manages to come in second.

2. Andrea Nahles revitalizes the party and allows it to grow and take a lot of support from the Greens and Linke but still fails to form a government.

[President Johnson]

The way I see it is that there are two possibilities from here (with another, more extreme result possibly happening):

1. The SPD collapses as it has in the past as a result of another Grand Coalition.  However, this collapse will probably be much more extensive than before.
     1a. The SPD falls so much that AfD manages to come in second.

2. Andrea Nahles revitalizes the party and allows it to grow and take a lot of support from the Greens and Linke but still fails to form a government.

Pretty much 1.

My current prediction is that Merkel resigns voluntary a year before the next election and AKK takes over. She'll run in 2021 as the incumbent, the SPD collapses to 10% and AKK forms either a coalition with the FDP alone or FDP and Greens, while AfD is the leader of the opposition at 20-25%. CDU/CSU will improve under the new chancellor to about 34-37%. FDP and Greens will end up in the 10-15% range while The Left remains stable at about 8-10%.

[EPG]

Maybe SPD will take back those poll losses to the Greens, now that SPD are also clearly a useful vote / willing to enter a government like the Greens. Am I being too simplistic?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Maybe SPD will take back those poll losses to the Greens, now that SPD are also clearly a useful vote / willing to enter a government like the Greens. Am I being too simplistic?

Yes, you are. Grand coalitions have always been detrimental to the SPD, as they had to betray their support base in order to contract an agreement with the CDU/CSU.

[TheSaint250]

The way I see it is that there are two possibilities from here (with another, more extreme result possibly happening):

1. The SPD collapses as it has in the past as a result of another Grand Coalition.  However, this collapse will probably be much more extensive than before.
     1a. The SPD falls so much that AfD manages to come in second.

2. Andrea Nahles revitalizes the party and allows it to grow and take a lot of support from the Greens and Linke but still fails to form a government.

Pretty much 1.

My current prediction is that Merkel resigns voluntary a year before the next election and AKK takes over. She'll run in 2021 as the incumbent, the SPD collapses to 10% and AKK forms either a coalition with the FDP alone or FDP and Greens, while AfD is the leader of the opposition at 20-25%. CDU/CSU will improve under the new chancellor to about 34-37%. FDP and Greens will end up in the 10-15% range while The Left remains stable at about 8-10%.

Do you really think AKK will win (not trying to sound aggressive; just asking the question)? I feel like Spahn would get chosen over her due to his being more on the right-wing while AKK is more to the left of the party mainstream with economics.

[EPG]

Maybe SPD will take back those poll losses to the Greens, now that SPD are also clearly a useful vote / willing to enter a government like the Greens. Am I being too simplistic?

Yes, you are. Grand coalitions have always been detrimental to the SPD, as they had to betray their support base in order to contract an agreement with the CDU/CSU.

But it seemed like SPD voters after the election were leaving SPD (unsure whether to govern) for Greens (constructive negotiators)?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course if they'd voted no then the party would have taken a proverbial bucket of shit or three from the media for causing a political crisis - it shouldn't be a great shock that a mostly older electorate would be more concerned about that than about longer term worries.

It's also the case that the party did not exactly do very well in opposition in 09-13. I don't think there's much doubt that Grand Coalitions cause problems for the parties in them (because they restrict room for political movement, because the electorate feels that 'the government will win' no matter what and so is free to vote for parties with more boutique platform) but it's also pretty clear that most of the SPDs problems in recent years have been caused by a leadership cadre that basically sucks at electoral politics.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But it seemed like SPD voters after the election were leaving SPD (unsure whether to govern) for Greens (constructive negotiators)?

The recent poll slippage - exactly how large depends on the pollster etc etc blah blah - only started when the party's internal issues became increasingly public. Voters tend not to think that parties who spend all their time screaming at each other in public are very credible...

[Dr. MB]

At this point the SPD and CDU-CSU should just merge. The anti-coalitioners should join Greens or Linke, or form their own party.

[Beagle]

If the articles I read on the future GroKo cabinet are correct, there will be zero ministers from the former GDR (except for Merkel herself, obviously). Given the current situation in the East, isn't this a problem? Also, has anybody commented how much influence tiny Saarland has now? With AKK, Altmaier & Maas all in or near the highest positions in the land, it seems like Berlin is becoming Saarbrücken on the Spree. I take it geographic balance isn't really expected in the German government?

[Leftbehind]

Interesting thing is that, judging by recent polling, the left wing vote is still actually sitting at around 40%, which is barely different to the election - but Die Linke and the Greens have only seen marginal rises in response to the SPD's fall.

I guess the question is, if the SPD is as doomed as is being made out, and Germany maintains a 40%ish left wing vote, will Die Linke, the Greens or someone else manage to make some serious progess? Are do we wind up with three parties in the 10-15% range?

Yeah I noticed that, also that those deserting the SPD were splitting roughly in thirds to staying at home, to the left and to the right. But depending on how their voters react, I think we may be flattering ourselves to think of the SPD vote as left.

[Pennsylvania Deplorable]

I'm starting to think that the SPD will become entirely irrelevant in East Germany, ceding votes to AfD and Linke, and also irrelevant among young progressives in West Germany, many of whom will switch to the Greens.
I think GroKo makes AfD the second largest party next election and collectively SPD and CDU/CSU might not even be able to win a majority of seats for another grand coalition.

[pilskonzept]

If the articles I read on the future GroKo cabinet are correct, there will be zero ministers from the former GDR (except for Merkel herself, obviously). Given the current situation in the East, isn't this a problem?

It is. Though appointing "random" Easterners would not help much against the AfD tide...they would need someone who was just a little critical of the current immigration policy, too.

Also, has anybody commented how much influence tiny Saarland has now? With AKK, Altmaier & Maas all in or near the highest positions in the land, it seems like Berlin is becoming Saarbrücken on the Spree. I take it geographic balance isn't really expected in the German government?

Within the cabinet, sort of...the absence of geographic balance usually gets some eyebrows raised. Altmaier and Maas being in different parties makes it less of an issue. AKK may well have more real power than these two men, but she is not a cabinet member (and thus doesn't count).

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What are the odds that 45 SPD, CDU and CSU MPs are going to vote against Merkel on March 14?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

According to a Forsa poll, Die Linke could become the strongest party in any state election for the first time:
In Berlin, they would receive 20% right now, surpassing both the CDU and the SPD, both of which would get 19%.



Source

[RedPrometheus]

The SPD ministers are apparently:

Foreign: Heiko Maas
Finances: Olaf Scholz
Environment: Svenja Schulze
Justice: Matthias Miersch
Labour: Katharina Barley
Family: Franziska Giffey

Take with a grain of salt though, my source is not 100% certain.

[Leftbehind]

Die Linke could become the strongest party in any state election for the first time:
In Berlin, they would receive 20% right now

So better than they achieved in 2016 and despite being in government? Their support dropped like a stone the last time, I wonder what the difference is now.

[RedPrometheus]

Die Linke could become the strongest party in any state election for the first time:
In Berlin, they would receive 20% right now

So better than they achieved in 2016 and despite being in government? Their support dropped like a stone the last time, I wonder what the difference is now.

Their leader Klaus Lederer is quite popular and Michael Mueller is extremely boring