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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655395 times)
Former President tack50
tack50
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« Reply #3450 on: March 01, 2018, 02:21:30 PM »

Infratest Dimap poll of next year's Brandenburg state election:

AfD: 29%
CDU: 24%
Linke: 17%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 6%
Green: 5%

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/969278678763999232

Wow, AfD+Linke at 46%. I wonder what will happen when the negative majority of AfD-Linke reaches 50% somewhere. Repeat elections forever? CDU-Linke deals? Or will AfD finally be treated like a normal party?
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windjammer
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« Reply #3451 on: March 01, 2018, 02:34:13 PM »

Infratest Dimap poll of next year's Brandenburg state election:

AfD: 29%
CDU: 24%
Linke: 17%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 6%
Green: 5%

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/969278678763999232

Wow, AfD+Linke at 46%. I wonder what will happen when the negative majority of AfD-Linke reaches 50% somewhere. Repeat elections forever? CDU-Linke deals? Or will AfD finally be treated like a normal party?
Well, if the greens don't reach 5% it appears Afd+Linke have the absolute majority
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3452 on: March 01, 2018, 03:15:54 PM »

Infratest Dimap poll of next year's Brandenburg state election:

AfD: 29%
CDU: 24%
Linke: 17%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 6%
Green: 5%

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/969278678763999232

That's not a poll for Brandenburg as a whole, only for the city of Cottbus.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #3453 on: March 01, 2018, 03:20:24 PM »

Infratest Dimap poll of next year's Brandenburg state election:

AfD: 29%
CDU: 24%
Linke: 17%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 6%
Green: 5%

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/969278678763999232

That's not a poll for Brandenburg as a whole, only for the city of Cottbus.

Yep, and something to add is that Linke is not 'taboo' in the way the AfD is. The current Brandenburg government government is SPD+Linke.
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #3454 on: March 01, 2018, 04:54:38 PM »

^

Sure, but still, Linke would never do a deal with AfD or CDU right?

If AfD+Linke has a majority and AfD+CDU has one as well (ie not even R2G would save you) then that state is ed.
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TheSaint250
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« Reply #3455 on: March 01, 2018, 05:16:05 PM »

Infratest Dimap poll of next year's Brandenburg state election:

AfD: 29%
CDU: 24%
Linke: 17%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 6%
Green: 5%

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/969278678763999232

That's not a poll for Brandenburg as a whole, only for the city of Cottbus.

Ah, my mistake.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3456 on: March 01, 2018, 05:20:50 PM »

That's not a poll for Brandenburg as a whole, only for the city of Cottbus.

...is there any particular reason why they decided to do a poll of the state election for the city of Cottbus? Bizarre.
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pilskonzept
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« Reply #3457 on: March 01, 2018, 05:41:45 PM »

Polls of a single city are to be taken with a grain of salt, but it's (commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Einwohnerentwicklung_von_Cottbus_-_ab_1871.svg) the sort of area where those numbers are certainly credible.

If Left+AfD combined ever get a majority of seats, the most likely thing to happen is a CDU (or, less likely, SPD) minority government. Unless AfD becomes the strongest party, in which case there will probably be early elections, which will result in someone else (i.e. CDU) winning a plurality and forming a coalition or minority government.

(The 2016 Saxony-Anhalt state election was a close shave, resulting in a CDU-SPD-Green coalition.)


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Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan
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« Reply #3458 on: March 01, 2018, 06:43:30 PM »

That's not a poll for Brandenburg as a whole, only for the city of Cottbus.

...is there any particular reason why they decided to do a poll of the state election for the city of Cottbus Chóśebuz? Bizarre.

To be honest, why not? In that town during the federal elections CDU got better result over AfD and SPD over die Linke. And as you can see in the poll now there is totally different situation (although I guess land elections can have different patterns etc.).
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
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« Reply #3459 on: March 01, 2018, 06:55:37 PM »

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Hades
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« Reply #3460 on: March 01, 2018, 07:07:39 PM »

Infratest Dimap poll of next year's Brandenburg state election:

AfD: 29%
CDU: 24%
Linke: 17%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 6%
Green: 5%

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/969278678763999232

That's not a poll for Brandenburg as a whole, only for the city of Cottbus.

I'm not quite sure if that's true. I couldn't find that poll on the official infratest dimap site, plus 1,000 respondents is a very high number for a single mid-sized city. Projected onto the whole of Germany, that would equal 820,000 respondents. Shocked
I think the English-speaking Twitter account understood something wrong.
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palandio
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« Reply #3461 on: March 02, 2018, 04:21:51 AM »

The poll was commissioned by the local public broadcaster:
https://www.rbb24.de/politik/beitrag/2018/03/umfrage-cottbus-afd-sonntagsfrage-wahlen.html

2017 federal election results for the city of Cottbus:
AfD 24.3%
CDU 22.9%
Linke 18.5%
SPD 15.4%
FDP 8.1%
Grüne 3.8%

The reason why they did a poll specifically in Cottbus is probably that during the last weeks there has been a lot of tension in the city between recently arrived immigrants and parts of the city's population. There has been a lot of reporting on this not only in the local news.
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EPG
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« Reply #3462 on: March 02, 2018, 06:29:23 AM »

A poll with AfD in first place will get you headlines - and reposts. A poll with boring old CDU in first place is just normal. The polling equivalent of p-hacking!
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Beezer
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« Reply #3463 on: March 02, 2018, 02:01:20 PM »

That's not a poll for Brandenburg as a whole, only for the city of Cottbus.

...is there any particular reason why they decided to do a poll of the state election for the city of Cottbus? Bizarre.

There have recently been some incidents with migrant youths threatening or attacking local residents which has triggered protests, sometimes orchestrated by the far right.
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Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3464 on: March 03, 2018, 05:34:34 PM »

That's not a poll for Brandenburg as a whole, only for the city of Cottbus.

...is there any particular reason why they decided to do a poll of the state election for the city of Cottbus? Bizarre.

There have recently been some incidents with migrant youths threatening or attacking local residents which has triggered protests, sometimes orchestrated by the far right.

I'd really like to see a poll of Kandel, Rhineland-Palatinate.
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RedPrometheus
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« Reply #3465 on: March 04, 2018, 02:34:32 AM »

I expected to have numbers by now but party leadership seems to be able to keep a lid on any info. But apparently there are a lot of relaxed people at the Willy-Brandt-Haus so the result is most likely for another grand coalition.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #3466 on: March 04, 2018, 02:53:35 AM »

Last Minute prediction from an SPD member: 58% in favor.
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RedPrometheus
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« Reply #3467 on: March 04, 2018, 02:55:59 AM »

Apparently it is a clear majority for GroKo. Almost as much as last time.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #3468 on: March 04, 2018, 03:15:20 AM »
« Edited: March 04, 2018, 03:39:16 AM by President Johnson »

BREAKING: Tagesschau says it's a yes, numbers will be announced soon.

EDIT: 239,604 66.02% in favor, 123,329; 33.98% opposed. Turnout: 363,494 valid votes (78.39%)

http://www.tagesschau.de/
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3469 on: March 04, 2018, 03:58:09 AM »

BREAKING: Tagesschau says it's a yes, numbers will be announced soon.

EDIT: 239,604 66.02% in favor, 123,329; 33.98% opposed. Turnout: 363,494 valid votes (78.39%)

http://www.tagesschau.de/

Interesting to note that even if there were 100% turnout and all of those who did not vote voted for No, Yes would have still won.

PS: my prediction was 61-39 for Yes (sadly).
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President Johnson
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« Reply #3470 on: March 04, 2018, 04:01:10 AM »

BREAKING: Tagesschau says it's a yes, numbers will be announced soon.

EDIT: 239,604 66.02% in favor, 123,329; 33.98% opposed. Turnout: 363,494 valid votes (78.39%)

http://www.tagesschau.de/

Interesting to note that even if there were 100% turnout and all of those who did not vote voted for No, Yes would have still won.

PS: my prediction was 61-39 for Yes (sadly).

I voted no, but the problem is age. When we had a local county meeting of about 100 SPD members two weeks ago to discuss the situation, almost 90% of the seniors over the age of 60 in favor. The same percentage of the youth was against. The current average age in the party is about 58. That tells you everything why this vote is NOT close at all. Sad!
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3471 on: March 04, 2018, 04:07:59 AM »

Here is the result, shown in a different way:

463.722 - SPD-members eligible to vote

239.604 - Yes (51.7%)
123.329 - No (26.6%)
  15.504 - Invalid votes (3.3%)
  85.285 - Didn't vote (18.4%)

Turnout was actually 81.6%
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Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3472 on: March 04, 2018, 04:13:10 AM »


How? Huh
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3473 on: March 04, 2018, 04:14:10 AM »


Because turnout also includes the invalid votes that were cast. Just like in a regular election.
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Anzeigenhauptmeister
Hades
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3474 on: March 04, 2018, 04:15:45 AM »


Because turnout also includes the invalid votes that were cast. Just like in a regular election.

You're right. They made a mistake.
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