German Elections & Politics

[Oryxslayer]

Berlin (DPA) -- Talks to form the so-called "Jamaica" coalition government in Germany have failed, a spokesman for the Free Democrats (FDP) party says.

So what does everyone think happens next?

My theory before the election was that talks would fail. Then Merkel would try to convince the SPD out of a need to show that she tried all other options, which will inevitably fail. She will then head back to Jamaica and say "look we failed before, but you are the only hope for stable government," and get them to work.

[Beezer]

Schulz swoops in to save the day with a Romania coalition minority government.

[MAINEiac4434]

Wuh oh. New elections?

Probably a CDU/SPD grand coalition or a CDU Minority.

[jaichind]

I wonder if they will try again in the near future but without Merkel as head of CDU.

Merkel isn't the reason it failed. If anything, Merkel would have made Jamaica possible. Without Merkel, it becomes even less likely.

I get that but I suspect she will be blamed no matter what for this failure.

[Oryxslayer]

Wuh oh. New elections?

Probably a CDU/SPD grand coalition or a CDU Minority.

I will be a cold day in hell before Germany gets a minority government...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I will be a cold day in hell before Germany gets a minority government...

There's a first time for everything, so I wouldn't rule it out categorically. But at this stage there's no certainty about anything.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Wuh oh. New elections?

Possibly. But not immediately.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I get that but I suspect she will be blamed no matter what for this failure.

Hard to blame her for the mutual intransigence of the Greens and CSU (both quite logically from their perspectives) or for the FDP getting cold feet (again, quite logical from where they're standing). Internal grumbling in CDU would be more about the unexpectedly poor election result, I think.

[Leftbehind]

At the end of the day Merkel nor the CDU are owed never-ending majorities with unwilling coalition partners being their sacrificial lambs when they can barely scrape together a third of the vote with the CSU. 

If Germany can put behind their history in terms of forging a new defence (as her recent speech indicated) I don't see why they can't accept minority governments are not the done thing until they have to be.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The FDP are such wussies. If it comes to snap elections I really hope they get kicked out off the Bundestag again. 👿

[DavidB.]

Positively surprised by the FDP, though I doubt their voters will appreciate it. But they may in the long run, and Germany needs a right-wing party in opposition that is not the AfD. Hope this will also mean Merxit.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, things suddenly got interesting.

[Hnv1]

Germany's FDP would support a minority Merkel government, Bild reports,

What’s the FDP endgame here? Why would they support a minority government but not become coalition partners?

[Helsinkian]

Germany's FDP would support a minority Merkel government, Bild reports,

What’s the FDP endgame here? Why would they support a minority government but not become coalition partners?

Presumably because they are afraid of a repeat of what happened the last time they were Merkel's coalition partners: having their support nosedive. In a support role outside the government they might have a more independent image.

[buritobr]

AFD will accept to bild a coalition with the CDU/CSU and the FDP with a condicion: Alice Weidel should become the kanzlerin. Then, Steinmeier will die in the next year, the position of president of Germany will be abolished, Alice Weidel will become the Führerin, and all parties except the AFD will become ilegal.

[DavidB.]

Germany's FDP would support a minority Merkel government, Bild reports,

The question is whether they would also provide support for a minority coalition of CDU/CSU and the Greens.

[Beezer]

I don't know how a black/green coalition would work if the main sticking point was the reunification of refugees. I doubt the CSU are too keen on compromising on the matter either.

[Beezer]

SPD have now come out and reiterated they will not enter another Grand Coalition, calling for fresh elections instead.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/jamaika-aus-spd-will-neuwahlen-und-stellt-sich-gegen-grosse-koalition-a-1179376.html

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

SPD have now come out and reiterated they will not enter another Grand Coalition, calling for fresh elections instead.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/jamaika-aus-spd-will-neuwahlen-und-stellt-sich-gegen-grosse-koalition-a-1179376.html

But they know that bringing about snap elections is rather impossible, especially since Steinmeier ruled them out.

[DavidB.]

I feel it's going to be an AfD-Linke Nazbol coalition with Green/CSU outside support.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Germany's FDP would support a minority Merkel government, Bild reports,

What’s the FDP endgame here? Why would they support a minority government but not become coalition partners?

They've obviously* decided that - the interesting question here is whether this was before the talks even started or during - Jamaica would probably mean sub-5% for both juniors at the next election, which they're particularly keen to avoid having only just returned to the Bundestag. But they would still like influence.

_{*Way too obviously, probably.}

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But they know that bringing about snap elections is rather impossible, especially since Steinmeier ruled them out.

This is why they're calling for them

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well, things suddenly got interesting.

A happy reminder that high level politics can hilarious without a massive sense of impending doom also attached.

[Beezer]

Germany's Merkel Prefers New Elections Over Minority Government

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-20/germany-s-merkel-prefers-new-elections-over-minority-government-ja8f0ea5

[Oryxslayer]

Germany's Merkel Prefers New Elections Over Minority Government

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-11-20/germany-s-merkel-prefers-new-elections-over-minority-government-ja8f0ea5

Thats that I suppose, I guess we are getting new elections. However, what exactly is Merkel's goal here? Reduce the AfD vote to boost her numbers for a future coalition of CDU/CSU +FDP or Greens? Hope the voters punish one of FDP/Greens, and hope the numbers allow for a coalition woth the suvivor? Simply have a rehash of results that comfirms to the Jamaica partners that they are the only option?