German Elections & Politics

[AtorBoltox]

What exactly happened to the SPD? I haven't been following the election closely but I remember eralier in the year it looked like they actually had a chance?

[Tender Branson]

What exactly happened to the SPD? I haven't been following the election closely but I remember eralier in the year it looked like they actually had a chance?

The Schulz train had a massive engine failure along the way and it turned out that engine is broken beyond repair. That's what happened.

PS: I will post my predictions for NZ and Germany tonight.

[mileslunn]

My German rounded off to the nearest whole number are:

CDU/CSU 36%
SPD 21%
AfD 11%
FDP 9%
Die Linke 9%
Greens 7%

So either continue with Grand coalition or have a Jamaica coalition.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What exactly happened to the SPD? I haven't been following the election closely but I remember eralier in the year it looked like they actually had a chance?

Everybody initially thought Martin Schulz was the real deal. Then the SPD lost three state elections in a row in March and May.

Between trying to emulate Macron and trying to emulate Corbyn we also never really found out who Schulz really was. You can't have it both ways, Schulz.

[Hnv1]

I'm in Berlin for the coming days and there's hardly political thrill in the air. Where I'm staying (Wedding) it's all SPD/Linke

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What exactly happened to the SPD? I haven't been following the election closely but I remember eralier in the year it looked like they actually had a chance?

There's a certain percentage (quite large actually) of the German electorate that votes SPD when they look to have a realistic chance of forming an alternative government, but does not when it does not. When it - briefly - looked that maybe Schulz was a credible challenger the SPDs ratings surged; when it became clear that he wasn't, they fell back down to where they were before. It's difficult, though, to pose as an alternative to the government when you are part of it.

Though it's worth noting - and probably you'd not be able to tell from the tone of comments in this thread - that if current polling is accurate (not certain!), the CDU-CSU is actually on track to lose more support from 2013.

[GlobeSoc]

As a fellow serious moderate, i support Merkel

[Beezer]

Final (?) polls? Forsa is giving the AfD a 2 point bump:



So does INSA:




In both cases the best AfD result since late January/early February.

[mvd10]

My prediction:
CDU/CSU 34.4%
SPD 21.2%
AfD 14.7%
Left 10.1%
FDP 9.2%
Greens 6.1%
Others 4.3%

[rob in cal]

   Some fun with numbers.  Will smaller four parties equal CDU/CSU vote? I think yes.  Will FDP and AFD combined equal SPD. I think yes.  Will AFD equal 55% of SPD vote? How close will Green and Linke combined come to SPD vote? And will Red Red Green hit 40%?

[Beezer]

Final polling aggregate 4 years ago:



How did the parties actually do in comparison?

CDU +2.3
SPD -0.8
Left -0.3
Greens -1.3
FDP -0.4
AfD +0.9

[Helsinkian]

Prediction:

CDU/CSU 35%
SPD 21%
AfD 14.5%
FDP 10.5%
Linke 8.5%
Greens 5.5%
Other 5%

[Bumaye]

Prediction: 
 
Union: 36,7% 
SPD: 21,0% 
AfD: 11,5% 
Linke: 10,1% 
FDP: 8,0% 
Grüne: 7,1% 
PARTEI: 1,6% 
Pirates: 1,1% 
Others: 2,1%   
 
For me it's a good day if: 
* Black-Yellow doesn't have a majority
* Die PARTEI gets above 1,3% 
* AfD stays below 12,5% 
* Linke gets above 9,5%   

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polls released over the past two days...

GMS: CDU-CSU 37, SPD 22, AfD 10, FDP 9, Left 9, Greens 8
FG Wahlen: CDU-CSU 36, SPD 21.5, AfD 11, FDP 10, Left 8.5, Greens 8
SPON: CDU-CSU 36, SPD 22, AfD 10, Left 10, FDP 10, Greens 8
Forsa: CDU-CSU 36, SPD 22, AfD 11, FDP 9.5, Left 9.5, Greens 7
YouGov: CDU-CSU 36, SPD 23, Left 10, AfD 10, FDP 9, Greens 7
Emnid: CDU-CSU 35, SPD 22, AfD 11, Left 10, FDP 9, Greens 8
INSA: CDU-CSU 34, SPD 21, AfD 13, Left 11, FDP 9, Greens 8

Have rounded except for when figures are given as X.5

And also there's YouGov's model which has...

CDU-CSU 36, SPD 25, AfD 12, Left 10, FDP 7, Greens 7

[Famous Mortimer]

What is the FDP's current ideological stance?

[JA]

Islamophobic US mega-donor fuels German far-right party with fake news

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What is the FDP's current ideological stance?

None. The FDP always was a one-man party and always will.

[DavidB.]

CDU-CSU 38%
SPD 19%
AfD 13%
Linke 10%
FDP 8%
Greens 7%

[Beezer]

CDU/CSU 34.9
SPD 21.2
AfD 12.1
FDP 11.9
Left 9.7
Greens 6.9

[DavidB.]

AfD campaigning in Russian. A wonderful step of inclusivity towards Germans with a migration background.

[Gustaf]

Polls released over the past two days...

GMS: CDU-CSU 37, SPD 22, AfD 10, FDP 9, Left 9, Greens 8
FG Wahlen: CDU-CSU 36, SPD 21.5, AfD 11, FDP 10, Left 8.5, Greens 8
SPON: CDU-CSU 36, SPD 22, AfD 10, Left 10, FDP 10, Greens 8
Forsa: CDU-CSU 36, SPD 22, AfD 11, FDP 9.5, Left 9.5, Greens 7
YouGov: CDU-CSU 36, SPD 23, Left 10, AfD 10, FDP 9, Greens 7
Emnid: CDU-CSU 35, SPD 22, AfD 11, Left 10, FDP 9, Greens 8
INSA: CDU-CSU 34, SPD 21, AfD 13, Left 11, FDP 9, Greens 8

Have rounded except for when figures are given as X.5

And also there's YouGov's model which has...

CDU-CSU 36, SPD 25, AfD 12, Left 10, FDP 7, Greens 7

This looks herded af.

[Tender Branson]

My final prediction for tomorrow:

35.3% CDU/CSU (-6.2)
21.1% SPD (-4.6)
12.4% AfD (+7.7)
10.7% FDP (+5.9)
  8.6% Left (n.c.)
  7.3% Greens (-1.1)
  4.6% Others* (-1.7)

* Free Voters and The Party with about 1% each, all others below 1%.

Turnout: 74.4% (+2.9)

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Any clue what party this woman will voted (or already have voted) for?

[Tender Branson]

Any clue what party this woman will voted (or already have voted) for?

I guess she's a Conservative. So, CSU.

[parochial boy]

So, I am a little bit surprised that it looks like the Linke is the only left wing party who have held up since 2013?

And I know this is #analysis, but, given that their heartland is the East, which is where the AfD will make the biggest gains (in parrticular among the demographics who normally give the Linke their biggest scores), I would have expected Die Linke to have fallen quite a bit.