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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655282 times)
Beezer
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« Reply #2350 on: May 19, 2017, 05:07:52 AM »

What a coincidence that this seems to frequently happen to the AfD...
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CO-OWL
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« Reply #2351 on: May 19, 2017, 01:26:34 PM »

Seems that CDU+FDP got their majority in NRW because of massive voter fraud against AfD there. They might lose it if AfD gets a 17th seat (which would cost FDP one).

AfD members are reporting fraud with 30-40 mails daily, party is investigating, first success already reached.

Mostly it's because of votes given to other parties instead of AfD so that the party mostly got 0,0% of party list votes while having double digit constituency votes. I'm sure it was all only an accident... and yeah, also pure random that only AfD is suffering such "mistakes"...

http://mobil.stern.de/politik/deutschland/afd-in-nrw-kontrolliert-einzelne-stimmauszaehlungen-der-landtagswahl-7459858.html

I would say, it's mostly due to "transfer errors" and not double-checking the results.

Just look at a fairly typical ballot paper for the NRW election: http://www.mik.nrw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Redakteure/Dokumente/Themen_und_Aufgaben/Buergerbeteiligung/Wahlen/2017landtagswahl/ltw17_musterstimmzettel.pdf

There's little chance to get the constituency votes for the AfD wrong, because there are only two candidates from "minor" parties and hence the  AfD clearly sticks out.
But considering the party list votes the AfD is at no. 16 in the middle of 31 party lists, many of them probably getting exactly 0 votes. It's much easier to mix something up, hence I would expect the ADD (no. 15) and the Aufbruch C (no. 17) to be the main beneficiaries from tallying/transfer errors at the expense of the AfD.

I think, this amount of "lost votes" is fairly typical for a "minor" party running for the first time that gets a non-neligible share of the vote.

Of course, such a mistake should be detected at second glance, but from my personal experience as a poll worker many poll workers just want to finish the count and the transfer of the results to get home...

In the end the AfD will probably net a few hundred list votes while leaving the number of seats totally unchanged.

On the bright side: Next time around with the AfD as one of the "major" parties on top of the ballot paper such errors should be greatly diminished Smiley.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2352 on: May 23, 2017, 01:00:16 AM »

For the first time since before the migrant wave started in the fall of 2015, CDU/CSU-FDP now have a majority - while the Schulz train is heading off the cliff:



48% CDU/CSU-FDP
47% SPD-Greens-Left-AfD

55% CDU/CSU-FDP-AfD
40% SPD-Greens-Left
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SPQR
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« Reply #2353 on: May 23, 2017, 02:56:46 AM »

I always thought that Schulz's bump was excessive and would eventually die off, but man, his train's derailment has been quick...
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palandio
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« Reply #2354 on: May 23, 2017, 05:28:59 AM »

Depressing, yet consequential.

(Caveat: It's Forsa, but they don't seem to be too far from the consensus.)
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #2355 on: May 23, 2017, 11:11:29 AM »

So is there a chance that Merkel could actually make gains in the PV from 2013?
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #2356 on: May 23, 2017, 11:18:29 AM »

hm, nah, i don't see it.

afd and fdp alone should prevent that possibility.
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mvd10
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« Reply #2357 on: May 23, 2017, 11:24:43 AM »

A federal CDU/CSU-FDP coalition would do a lot to redeem Merkel (unless she slowly sucks the life out of the FDP again).
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #2358 on: May 23, 2017, 11:31:13 AM »

A federal CDU/CSU-FDP coalition would do a lot to redeem Merkel (unless she slowly sucks the life out of the FDP again).

redeem like...what?

she is going to do it anyway - she MUST do it, her base will be furious otherwise, even while the fpd is known to be an annoying partner - if the votes are there.

there just hasn't been a lot of difference between spd and fdp merkel coalitions.
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mvd10
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« Reply #2359 on: May 23, 2017, 11:38:08 AM »

A federal CDU/CSU-FDP coalition would do a lot to redeem Merkel (unless she slowly sucks the life out of the FDP again).

redeem like...what?

she is going to do it anyway - she MUST do it, her base will be furious otherwise, even while the fpd is known to be an annoying partner - if the votes are there.

there just hasn't been a lot of difference between spd and fdp merkel coalitions.

Yeah, that's what I'm afraid of. But I don't think CDU/CSU-FDP will have a majority in the end btw. This is the first poll since forever that showed a CDU/CSU-FDP majority and I don't think it will happen unless the AfD completely collapses. Red-Red-Green would have to be at something like 40% for CDU/CSU-FDP to happen.
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palandio
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« Reply #2360 on: May 23, 2017, 12:08:39 PM »

So is there a chance that Merkel could actually make gains in the PV from 2013?

PV? Isn't that a bit nonsensical outside of US presidential elections?

CDU+CSU > 41.5%: Not completely outside the realm of possibilities, but not too likely in my opinion.

CDU+CSU > 18.17 million votes: Given the trend of rising turnout in all recent regional elections, which I expect to continue federally, there is definitely a chance, although it is <50% in my opinion.
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Sozialliberal
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« Reply #2361 on: May 27, 2017, 05:09:30 PM »
« Edited: May 28, 2017, 06:42:46 AM by Sozialliberal »

Justice Minister Maas (SPD) wants to crack down on online hate speech

The federal justice minister Heiko Maas (SPD) thinks that social media services (Twitter and Facebook in particular) don't do enough about hate speech. Therefore, he wants to legally oblige those companies to check posts for hate speech within a given time frame if they are reported by other users of the service. In the case of posts that are "obviously" illegal (Holocaust denial and incitement to ethnic hatred are cited as examples), the companies would have 24 hours to delete or block those posts. In more ambiguous cases, they would have 7 days to check whether those posts violate German law or not. If they were found to be illegal, they would have to be deleted or blocked, too. If the companies failed to do so, they would have to pay fines that could be as high as 50 million euros (roughly 56 million U.S. dollars).

Opponents of this planned law have drafted a "Declaration for Freedom of Expression" (English translation available), which has been signed by trade associations, digital rights groups, civil rights organizations and legal experts. CDU/CSU, while also in favour of taking a tough stance on online hate speech, have criticized Maas for trying to pass the law in a hurry shortly before the summer recess of the Bundestag begins. Some CDU/CSU politicians have also criticzed Maas's bill because it would "outsource" a state task to private companies.

Wow, another reason not to vote SPD.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #2362 on: May 28, 2017, 09:55:28 AM »

If CDU/CSU-FDP don't have a majority but CDU/CSU still win the election by a comfortable margin, it has to be a grand coalition again... right? Or is Jamaica really a plausible option?
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CrabCake
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« Reply #2363 on: May 28, 2017, 10:30:01 AM »

I honestly think a minority government would be more likely than a Jamaica coalition, and I don't think the former is very likely at all
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Sozialliberal
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« Reply #2364 on: May 28, 2017, 11:01:41 AM »

If CDU/CSU-FDP don't have a majority but CDU/CSU still win the election by a comfortable margin, it has to be a grand coalition again... right? Or is Jamaica really a plausible option?

Let's assume that neither red-red-green nor black-yellow nor black-green had a majority of seats. In that scenario, the respective parties would start negotiating a Jamaica coalition first. My gut feeling tells me that the negotiations wouldn't be successful, though. I believe that a coalition with the CDU/CSU and the FDP at federal level is potentially dangerous for the Greens, even more so than a black-green coalition, because they could lose many voters to Die Linke (watermelon greens) and the SPD (economically moderate SJWs). They could even end up like the FDP in 2013.

I honestly think a minority government would be more likely than a Jamaica coalition, and I don't think the former is very likely at all

While I think that both are unlikely, I'd say that a Jamaica coalition would be more likely than a minority government. Germans don't like minority governments, especially not at federal level. We're too much of play-it-safe types for that. Wink
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Former President tack50
tack50
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« Reply #2365 on: May 28, 2017, 12:44:53 PM »

If CDU/CSU-FDP don't have a majority but CDU/CSU still win the election by a comfortable margin, it has to be a grand coalition again... right? Or is Jamaica really a plausible option?

Let's assume that neither red-red-green nor black-yellow nor black-green had a majority of seats. In that scenario, the respective parties would start negotiating a Jamaica coalition first. My gut feeling tells me that the negotiations wouldn't be successful, though. I believe that a coalition with the CDU/CSU and the FDP at federal level is potentially dangerous for the Greens, even more so than a black-green coalition, because they could lose many voters to Die Linke (watermelon greens) and the SPD (economically moderate SJWs). They could even end up like the FDP in 2013.

I honestly think a minority government would be more likely than a Jamaica coalition, and I don't think the former is very likely at all

While I think that both are unlikely, I'd say that a Jamaica coalition would be more likely than a minority government. Germans don't like minority governments, especially not at federal level. We're too much of play-it-safe types for that. Wink

What about a traffic light coalition? (SPD+Greens+FDP). Assuming the numbers add up of course, which I guess is not likely at all.
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Sozialliberal
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« Reply #2366 on: May 28, 2017, 02:34:08 PM »

If CDU/CSU-FDP don't have a majority but CDU/CSU still win the election by a comfortable margin, it has to be a grand coalition again... right? Or is Jamaica really a plausible option?

Let's assume that neither red-red-green nor black-yellow nor black-green had a majority of seats. In that scenario, the respective parties would start negotiating a Jamaica coalition first. My gut feeling tells me that the negotiations wouldn't be successful, though. I believe that a coalition with the CDU/CSU and the FDP at federal level is potentially dangerous for the Greens, even more so than a black-green coalition, because they could lose many voters to Die Linke (watermelon greens) and the SPD (economically moderate SJWs). They could even end up like the FDP in 2013.

I honestly think a minority government would be more likely than a Jamaica coalition, and I don't think the former is very likely at all

While I think that both are unlikely, I'd say that a Jamaica coalition would be more likely than a minority government. Germans don't like minority governments, especially not at federal level. We're too much of play-it-safe types for that. Wink

What about a traffic light coalition? (SPD+Greens+FDP). Assuming the numbers add up of course, which I guess is not likely at all.

Right, I totally forgot about that one. A traffic-light coalition is a possibility, but even less likely than a Jamaica coalition in my opinion.

The FDP has made it clear that Martin Schulz would have to clearly position himself as a third-wayist to make a traffic-light coalition happen. Officially, the federal FDP chairman Lindner says something like: "The FDP has changed so much since 2013! We're so independent now, we can even form coalitions with the SPD, too!" But it's not hard to tell that Lindner doesn't really want a traffic-light coalition. While he criticizes both Schulz and Merkel, he's much more critical of Schulz. Whenever Schulz says something that contradicts the FDP's turbo-capitalist agenda, Lindner goes: "Bad Schulz! Stop that!"

That's Schulz's dilemma. He could say that he's aiming at a red-red-green coalition, positioning himself as an old-school social democrat; or he could say that he's aiming at a traffic-light coalition, positioning himself as a third-wayist. Schulz, however, has not publicly expressed any preference for either coalition. Schulz's fear of taking a side, and maybe putting off voters from the other side as a result, is why most voters are not sure what he really stands for. They don't know in what direction he wants to take the country.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2367 on: May 30, 2017, 05:12:09 AM »

Erwin Sellering (SPD) will step down as Governor of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, because of a cancer diagnosis.

Manuela Schwesig (also SPD) will become the new Governor:

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palandio
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« Reply #2368 on: May 30, 2017, 08:00:32 AM »

I think that a bit of strategical speculation is legitimate, given that Schwesig is often thought to hold some long-term federal ambitions.

Being minister for Family, Women and Youth Affairs (1991-1994) has been the first step in Angela Merkel's long way towards chancellorship. But at the same time broadening Schwesig's political profile seems to be important, particularly for a good-looking blonde woman. That's also one of the reasons why Ursula von der Leyen (CDU) wanted the Defence portfolio. Particularly when looking at the SPD the governors have for a long time been a natural reservoir for party chairmen and chancellor candidates.

Hence not a bad move for Schwesig.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2369 on: May 31, 2017, 11:54:29 PM »

A new federal election poll for Bavaria shows the CSU in good shape and the Schultz-train further derailing. The poll pretty much shows that CDU/CSU are close to 40% Germany-wide, while the SPD could even drop against their 2013 results:



In Bavaria, Merkel leads Schulz by 57-22 (comapred to 49-36 in Germany as a whole):



By party:



A major reason why the CSU and Merkel do so well in Bavaria is this chart:

Is the economic situation in Bavaria/Germany good right now ?



http://www.br.de/nachrichten/bayerntrend-bundestagswahl-2017-kontrovers-100~_node-cc7ade05-c541-44fc-aaa8-13ac279b4bbc_-e1cbdd91473cf0bd8ce97b0595901ad868145e5c.html
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #2370 on: June 01, 2017, 12:12:46 AM »

Bavaria is the single most pro-CDU/CSU state in the country, I think. I expect Merkel to be up bigly there.
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palandio
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« Reply #2371 on: June 01, 2017, 03:41:27 AM »

Bavaria is the single most pro-CDU/CSU state in the country, I think. I expect Merkel to be up bigly there.

Correct. It should be noted though that Merkel's CDU doesn't run in Bavaria and that the CSU under many aspects acts as a separate party. From autumn 2015 on there had been quite some frictions between CSU (chairman/governor Seehofer in particular) and CDU (Merkel in particular), mostly over immigration policy. The poll shows that most CSU voters have effectively reconciled with Merkel.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2372 on: June 01, 2017, 01:08:35 PM »

CDU/CSU rising further, SPD collapses even more:



Red-Red-Green also drops below 40% ...

57% CDU/CSU-FDP-AfD
39% SPD-Greens-Left
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jaichind
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« Reply #2373 on: June 01, 2017, 05:12:04 PM »

CDU/CSU rising further, SPD collapses even more:



Red-Red-Green also drops below 40% ...

57% CDU/CSU-FDP-AfD
39% SPD-Greens-Left

Wow. This poll has CDU/CSU-FDP at a majority.
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mgop
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« Reply #2374 on: June 02, 2017, 06:04:28 AM »

fdp at 10%, ahead of linke and afd lol that's not gonna happen
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