German Elections & Politics

[ApatheticAustrian]

ANY fdp voter who is not voting fdp this time is killing the party for good.

[Representative simossad]

1. At what point do voters for the smaller parties start to feel the need to vote "strategically" to choose the chancellor. Let's say i am a Green voter but the final poll says that the CDU and SPD are deadlocked at 33% each and the Greens are at 8%. Maybe I'd consider "lending" my vote to the SPD knowing that the the SPD beats the CDU by so much as a single seat - Schulz would have a claim on being chancellor in a new grand coalition...of course some FDP voters could vote strategically for the CDU to keep Merkel - which could in turn have the unintended consequence of causing the FDP to fall below the 5% hurdle again and get no seats!

2. What would happen if the SPD beat the CDU by a handful of seats? Some say the CDU would refuse to be a junior partner to the SPD, so then what government would emerge? Could you have an SPD minority government?

Question one is not really easy to answer. On the one hand, you have voters switching parties to bigger parties, which happened in Rhineland-Palatinate in 2016. This election was propably the most polarized that year, and nearly all of the Green voters went to the SPD, which nearly lead to the dropout of the Greens. On the one hand, you have voters from large parties going to the small parties to prevent them from dropping out of the parliament. That was for example the case in 1998 when some CDU voters went with the FDP, which was seen as 4%-5% in polls just before the election and finished at 6.2%. So, there is no clear answer to your question, I think this has to do with political dynamics in Germany.

Your second answer is much easier to answer. I don't believe that there will be a minority government by the SPD. Minority governments on a state level are really rare, and they have never been the case on the federal level. Minority governments have their tradition in Skandinavian countries, but not in Germany, no. I think that if it's not going to be a leftist coalition or a "traffic light" coalition between SPD-Greens-FDP, it is going to be a grand coalition with Schulz as cancellor. The odds are pretty low that the CDU would refuse being a part of a grand coalition.

[DavidB.]

To what extent do German voters vote tactically for the "Erststimme" / engage in ticket-splitting? Do voters generally have the information necessary to know how the candidates in their constituency will approximately do and whether the race will be competitive?

[Bumaye]

To what extent do German voters vote tactically for the "Erststimme" / engage in ticket-splitting? Do voters generally have the information necessary to know how the candidates in their constituency will approximately do and whether the race will be competitive?

 
 
I'd say that's different from area to area. I live in Merkels district, so I can vote whatever I like best knowing that Merkel will get the seat anyway. If I would live 5 kilometers further south I would probably vote CDU to make sure the seat doesn't go towards the AfD. Though I wouldn't say it's to common. In some rather close cases it can happen that the votes are focused onto the two biggest candidates but not to often.

[palandio]

Ticket-splitting has also become close to irrelevant on the federal level due to the full compensation of overhang seats that was introduced before the 2013 federal election following a ruling from the constitutional court.

[Beezer]

I wouldn't call it irrelevant, after all most voters for the smaller parties know that not splitting their ticket will result in essentially wasting their "Erststimme". But yeah, the old tricks are no longer possible, so I suppose it's irrelevant from a distribution of seats angle.

[Beezer]

FDP leapfrogs Greens according to INSA:



CDU/CSU -1
SPD +2
Left -1.5
Greens 0
FDP + 1.5
AfD 0

[Tender Branson]

Today, 3 traditional "ash-wednesday" beer tent meetings took place, one for the SPD, one for the CSU and one for the AfD.

At the SPD event, Austrian Chancellor Kern was present and giving a speech.



At the CSU event ("Bavaria First"), Austrian Interior Minister Sobotka was present.

And at the AfD event, FPÖ-leader Strache was giving a speech ... which was better liked by the audience than the speech of AfD-leader Frauke Petry:



http://www.mittelbayerische.de/bayern/niederbayern-nachrichten/strache-stiehlt-petry-die-schau-21764-art1492609.html

[Intell]

Today, 3 traditional "ash-wednesday" beer tent meetings took place, one for the SPD, one for the CSU and one for the AfD.

At the SPD event, Austrian Chancellor Kern was present and giving a speech.



At the CSU event ("Bavaria First"), Austrian Interior Minister Sobotka was present.

And at the AfD event, FPÖ-leader Strache was giving a speech ... which was better liked by the audience than the speech of AfD-leader Frauke Petry:



http://www.mittelbayerische.de/bayern/niederbayern-nachrichten/strache-stiehlt-petry-die-schau-21764-art1492609.html

Why not the other parties?

[jaichind]

Emnid

CDU/CSU       33 (+1)
SPD               32 (--)
AfD                10 (+1)
Linke               8 (--)
Greens            7 (--)
FDP                 6 (-1)

Still no alternative to CDU/CSU-SPD

[Bumaye]

Very interesting poll by INSA for the state election in NRW: 
 
SPD: 38% 
CDU: 27% 
AfD: 11% 
FDP 10% 
Grüne: 7% 
Linke: 4% 
 
All of a sudden a Red-Yellow coalition seems possible. Didn't had that in NRW in a long time, since 1980 to be exact. Prime minister was a certain Johannes Rau, later the 8th President of the Federal Republic of Germany. FDP leader in NRW is the party's leader Christian Lindner who is quite popular. Also the Schulz-Train seems to help the NRW-SPD quite a bit. Back in January's YouGov poll the SPD was equal with the CDU at 31%.

[ApatheticAustrian]

compared to other NRW polls, INSA as usual thrashes the CDU.....never ever the CDU will be below 30 and the SPD close to 40%.

[Bumaye]

compared to other NRW polls, INSA as usual thrashes the CDU.....never ever the CDU will be below 30 and the SPD close to 40%.

 
 
The special thing about the poll is the strength of the FDP. SPD and CDU are totally normal compared to other polls. Infratest Dimap had the SPD at 37 and CDU at 30 just two weeks ago.

[mgop]

compared to other NRW polls, INSA as usual thrashes the CDU.....never ever the CDU will be below 30 and the SPD close to 40%.

INSA is the only one that isn't on merkel payroll.

[Tender Branson]

New Saarland poll by INSA (the state election will be held on March 26):

36% CDU (+1)
33% SPD (+2)
12% Left (-4)
  7% AfD (+7)
  4% FDP (+3)
  4% Greens (-1)
  4% Others (-8)

[Tender Branson]

This is what I found recently:



"Increase pensions like in Austria: 800€ more, on average !"

What the hell are they talking about ?

I'm not aware that our pensions increased by 800€ (I guess, a year).

Pensions are usually upped by the rate of inflation, or slightly higher, each year (+1 to 3% annually).

It seems they are lying ...

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, I just checked it:

* German pensions were raised 2.0% for 2017
* Austrian pensions were raised by 1.7% for 2017

The average pension in both countries is about 1200€ a month, so if the Left wants to raise it by 800€ a year (67€/month), that would be a 6% annual increase.

Again: what are they talking about in their state election poster ?

[Bumaye]

  4% FDP (+3)

 
  
FDP at 1,2% - Never forget. One of the most beautiful election days ever.  
  
By the way since the last INSA poll the SPD gained 9%. Schulz is not only saving the SPD on federal level but also on state level. All of a sudden it seems as they could win all three state elections until the federal election in September.  
  
Here is the full comparison to the last poll shortly before Schulz was nominated:  
  
  

You must be logged in to read this quote.

 
  
Pretty sure it means that our pensions should be increased by 800€ so we reach the same standard as Austria has for a while now. It doesn't mean that your pensions were increased by 800€ lately only that yours are 800€ higher right now. It's of course heavy populism since our pension systems work differently but overall it is true that our pensions are pretty low while yours are quite a bit higher.

[Tender Branson]

Pretty sure it means that our pensions should be increased by 800€ so we reach the same standard as Austria has for a while now. It doesn't mean that your pensions were increased by 800€ lately only that yours are 800€ higher right now. It's of course heavy populism since our pension systems work differently but overall it is true that our pensions are pretty low while yours are quite a bit higher.

You think your pensions are really that much lower on average as ours ?

I don't really believe that. Maybe in East Germany, but even these pensions are streamlined with the Western ones by the middle of the 2020s ...

[Bumaye]

Pretty sure it means that our pensions should be increased by 800€ so we reach the same standard as Austria has for a while now. It doesn't mean that your pensions were increased by 800€ lately only that yours are 800€ higher right now. It's of course heavy populism since our pension systems work differently but overall it is true that our pensions are pretty low while yours are quite a bit higher.

You think your pensions are really that much lower on average as ours ?

I don't really believe that. Maybe in East Germany, but even these pensions are streamlined with the Western ones by the middle of the 2020s ...

 
 
Not everyone gets pension for 14 months per year. If you don't believe Die Linke maybe you prefer more centrist media: 
 
http://www.br.de/nachrichten/rente-europa-vergleich-100.html 
http://www.focus.de/finanzen/altersvorsorge/rente/selbst-wirtschaftsweiser-war-ueberfragt-staunen-bei-illner-warum-gibt-es-in-oesterreich-40-prozent-mehr-rente_id_6255294.html 
http://www.sueddeutsche.de/wirtschaft/altersversorgung-warum-oesterreichs-rentner-viel-mehr-geld-bekommen-als-deutsche-1.2818161 

[Tender Branson]

You only get your pension 12 times a year in Germany ? Didn't knew that.

That of course explains it ...

[Bumaye]

Three state polls today:  
  
Saarland (Forsa):  
  
CDU: 34%  
SPD: 33%  
Linke: 13%  
AfD: 6%  
Grüne: 5%  
FDP: 4%  
  
Less than three weeks until the election and the plot thickens. This poll proves that INSA's poll two days ago wasn't just a fluke. While numerically basically nothing has changed (R2G at 51%, Protest Party at 6-7%) It will be interesting to see if AfD, Grüne and FDP can get above the 5% threshold. My guess is that the later two won't. More important though is who will lead the next Grand Coalition. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is widely respected and for a lot of people the crown princess in the CDU as it is known that she is very close to Merkel but if she really blows her 12 point lead from back in January then this could be a debacle for her whole career.  
  
_________________  
  
Baden-Würtemberg (Infratest Dimap - Compared to September):  
  
CDU: 28% (+2)  
Grüne: 27% (-4)  
SPD: 20% (+7)  
AfD: 11% (-6)  
FDP: 7% (+0)  
Linke: 4% (+1)  
  
The SPD is the Conchita Wurst of Baden-Würtemberg as she rises like a phoenix. Of course a year after the last election this doesn't mean much though. Of course I enjoy the crash of the AfD.  
  
_________________  
  
Rheinland-Pfalz (Infratest Dimap - Compared to December):  
  
SPD: 40% (+8)  
CDU: 35% (-1)  
AfD: 7% (-3)  
Grüne: 6% (-3)  
FDP: 6% (+1)  
Linke: 3% (-1)  
  
'Rise like a phoenix! Out of the ashes...' ♪♫ Germany's only so called traffic light coalition has gained 4% since their election a year ago. As everywhere it seems that the SPD is almost consuming Grüne and AfD and regain their old strength thanks to the Schulz Hype Train.

[Tender Branson]

Infratest has also released a federal election poll for RP, but strangely not for the bigger state BW.





They only posted a Chancellor poll for BW:

[Middle-aged Europe]

Infratest dimap (national, 03/09)

CDU/CSU 32% (+1)
SPD 31% (-1)
AfD 11% (+-0)
Greens 8% (+-0)
Left 8% (+1)
FDP 6% (+-0)

Sorry folks, Grand coalition only.


Forsa (national, 03/08)

CDU/CSU 33% (+-0)
SPD 32% (+1)
AfD 8% (-1)
Greens 8% (+-0)
Left 7% (+-0)
FDP 6% (-1)

That amounts to exactly 50% of the seats for both SPD-Greens-Left and CDU/CSU-Greens-FDP.


INSA troll poll for BLÖD-Zeitung (national, 03/07)

SPD 31.5% (-0.5)
CDU/CSU 30.5% (+-0)
AfD 11% (+-0)
Left 8.5% (+0.5)
FDP 7.5% (+0.5)
Greens 6.5% (+-0)

Sorry folks, Grand coalition only here as well.

[windjammer]

Three state polls today:  
  
Saarland (Forsa):  
  
CDU: 34%  
SPD: 33%  
Linke: 13%  
AfD: 6%  
Grüne: 5%  
FDP: 4%  
  
Less than three weeks until the election and the plot thickens. This poll proves that INSA's poll two days ago wasn't just a fluke. While numerically basically nothing has changed (R2G at 51%, Protest Party at 6-7%) It will be interesting to see if AfD, Grüne and FDP can get above the 5% threshold. My guess is that the later two won't. More important though is who will lead the next Grand Coalition. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer is widely respected and for a lot of people the crown princess in the CDU as it is known that she is very close to Merkel but if she really blows her 12 point lead from back in January then this could be a debacle for her whole career.  
  
_________________  
  
Baden-Würtemberg (Infratest Dimap - Compared to September):  
  
CDU: 28% (+2)  
Grüne: 27% (-4)  
SPD: 20% (+7)  
AfD: 11% (-6)  
FDP: 7% (+0)  
Linke: 4% (+1)  
  
The SPD is the Conchita Wurst of Baden-Würtemberg as she rises like a phoenix. Of course a year after the last election this doesn't mean much though. Of course I enjoy the crash of the AfD.  
  
_________________  
  
Rheinland-Pfalz (Infratest Dimap - Compared to December):  
  
SPD: 40% (+8)  
CDU: 35% (-1)  
AfD: 7% (-3)  
Grüne: 6% (-3)  
FDP: 6% (+1)  
Linke: 3% (-1)  
  
'Rise like a phoenix! Out of the ashes...' ♪♫ Germany's only so called traffic light coalition has gained 4% since their election a year ago. As everywhere it seems that the SPD is almost consuming Grüne and AfD and regain their old strength thanks to the Schulz Hype Train.

SPD-Linke coalition isn't possible in Saarland?