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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655396 times)
DL
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« Reply #1875 on: February 11, 2017, 11:40:59 PM »

What possible government could there be that is not a grand coalition - no one will work with AfD or Linke and it is outside the realm of possibility that CDU+FDP gets a majority or that SPD+Green gets a majority...maybe i am missing something but how can anything other than a grand coalition emerge - barring some cataclysm like an AfD majority
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #1876 on: February 11, 2017, 11:51:00 PM »

What possible government could there be that is not a grand coalition - no one will work with AfD or Linke and it is outside the realm of possibility that CDU+FDP gets a majority or that SPD+Green gets a majority...maybe i am missing something but how can anything other than a grand coalition emerge - barring some cataclysm like an AfD majority

SPD knows that a counted grand coalition will strangle them in the long run. If they gain, they will try to break that stranglehold.

Therefore its not 100% certain SPD will not work with Die Linke, there are some moderate people in the Linke leadership, and if there is a Red-Red-Green majority they may reach an understanding about outside support.

SPD, FDP, Greens would also be a possibility. The current leadership of FDP isn't as right wing as the previous and the Greens have a moderate ("realo") leadership.
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DL
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« Reply #1877 on: February 12, 2017, 12:02:48 AM »

I don't think the SPD would mind a grand coalition so much if they were the larger party and Schulz became chancellor...as for the other possibilities - right now its hard to imagine SPD+Green+Linke having a majority and its also hard to see SPD+FDP+Greens having a majority...and its also hard to see CDU+Green+FDP having a majority...I think Germany is headed for Austrian-style perpetual grand coalition
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Bumaye
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« Reply #1878 on: February 12, 2017, 03:07:28 AM »

What possible government could there be that is not a grand coalition - no one will work with  Linke
 
 
They form three state governments together, possibly six until the federal election, have talks about a possible coalition for months and have equal goals in inner politics. I believe that if R2G has a 3% lead they will form a coalition. Then they should have ~20 seats in the Bundestag more then the other parties, a big enough buffer if the far-left in Die Linke goes apesh**t.
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Sozialliberal
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« Reply #1879 on: February 12, 2017, 07:59:23 AM »

SPD, FDP, Greens would also be a possibility. The current leadership of FDP isn't as right wing as the previous and the Greens have a moderate ("realo") leadership.

Lindner (FDP chairman and top candidate in the Bundestag election) said that he would go for a traffic-light coaliton at federal level only if the SPD and the Greens followed right-wing economic policies in the tradition of Gerhard Schröder's Agenda 2010.

Regarding today's presidential election, I hope that Hold receives more than the votes of the 11 Free Voters' delegates. Maybe he can attract some delegates who don't feel comfortable voting for Steinmeier (especially in the CDU/CSU/FDP camp). We'll see.
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jeron
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« Reply #1880 on: February 12, 2017, 08:24:03 AM »

Frank-Walter Steinmeier has just been chosen next Bundesprasident with 931 of 1253 votes.
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windjammer
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« Reply #1881 on: February 12, 2017, 08:34:19 AM »

The coalitions from most likely to least likely right now:
1) SPD-CDU or CDU-SPD
2) SPD-Die Linke-Greens
3) SPD-Greens-FDP
4)CDU-FDP-Greens
5) CDU-FDP-AFD
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Sozialliberal
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« Reply #1882 on: February 12, 2017, 08:44:45 AM »

Full results

1253 votes in total
931 votes for Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD, CDU, CSU, Greens and FDP)
128 votes for Christoph Butterwegge (The Left)
42 votes for Albrecht Glaser (AfD)
25 votes for Alexander Hold (Free Voters)
10 votes for Engelbert Sonneborn (Pirate Party)
103 abstentions
14 invalid votes
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jeron
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« Reply #1883 on: February 12, 2017, 08:56:56 AM »

Full results

1253 votes in total
931 votes for Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD, CDU, CSU, Greens and FDP)
128 votes for Christoph Butterwegge (The Left)
42 votes for Albrecht Glaser (AfD)
25 votes for Alexander Hold (Free Voters)
10 votes for Engelbert Sonneborn (Pirate Party)
103 abstentions
14 invalid votes

The AFD was quite happy with the result apparently, because their candidate got more votes than expected as there were only 35 voters belonging to the AFD. 8 votes probably came from CDU/CSU members. There were only 95 voters belonging to Die Linke, so a substantial part of the Greens probably voted for Butterwegge.
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Sozialliberal
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« Reply #1884 on: February 12, 2017, 11:10:47 AM »
« Edited: February 12, 2017, 11:15:07 AM by Sozialliberal »

Full results

1253 votes in total
931 votes for Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD, CDU, CSU, Greens and FDP)
128 votes for Christoph Butterwegge (The Left)
42 votes for Albrecht Glaser (AfD)
25 votes for Alexander Hold (Free Voters)
10 votes for Engelbert Sonneborn (Pirate Party)
103 abstentions
14 invalid votes

The AFD was quite happy with the result apparently, because their candidate got more votes than expected as there were only 35 voters belonging to the AFD. 8 votes probably came from CDU/CSU members. There were only 95 voters belonging to Die Linke, so a substantial part of the Greens probably voted for Butterwegge.

Also note that Engelbert Sonneborn received only 10 votes though the Pirate Party had 11 delegates in the Federal Assembly. I guess that Volker Pispers voted for Butterwegge instead. Pispers is a left-wing stand-up comedian, who was nominated as a delegate by the Pirate Party of North Rhine-Westphalia but is much closer to The Left policy-wise. He is not a member of any party.

Of course, I'm glad about Hold's good result! Smiley I would be even gladder if I could have voted for him myself, though.
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Bumaye
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« Reply #1885 on: February 12, 2017, 11:29:06 AM »
« Edited: February 12, 2017, 01:46:44 PM by Bumaye »

I found the signals by Die Linke surrounding the election quite telling. I saw interviews of Ramelow, Bartsch and Wagenknecht and all three made clear that they think Steinmeier will be a decent president and that they respect him despite their nomination for Butterwegge who received a great result.  
  
Also picture of the day for me was when President of the Bundestag Norbert Lammert talked about unitedly opposing isolation, resentment and fear-mongering and roughly 1200 delegates of all parties were standing and clapping and the AfD looked like ashamed school boys. Beautiful.   
 
Okay then again this picture is not bad either: 
 
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1886 on: February 12, 2017, 05:42:37 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2017, 04:28:20 AM by 0% Approval Rating »

Ignoring the Schulz train for a moment, if I was a member of the Green party I would get worried right now. On 19th November they were at 12%, ever since they lose bit by bit.

Right now, the Greens are suffering from the Schulzmentum. In two polls right before the Schulz effect entered into full force (Forsa, Jan. 25 and Emnid, Jan. 28) the Greens were actually rising from 9% to 10%.

The SPD's 10% bump in the polls had to come from somewhere. It's an old rule that when the SPD goes up, the Greens go down... and vice versa. The Greens' best election result ever came in the same year (2009) the SPD had their worst post-WWII result.


This rule is applicable for six out of nine Bundestag elections were SPD and Greens competed against each other:

1983: Losses for the SPD, gains for the Greens
1987: Losses for the SPD, gains for the Greens

1990: Losses for both SPD and Greens (Reunification effect)
1994: Gains for both SPD and Greens (Recovery from the reunification effect)
1998: Gains for the SPD, losses for the Greens
2002: Losses for the SPD, gains for the Greens

2005: Losses for both SPD and Greens (Red-Green Schröder coalition loses its majority)
2009: Losses for the SPD, gains for the Greens
2013: Gains for the SPD, losses for the Greens


It's also true for all but one European Parliament election:

1984: Losses for the SPD, gains for the Greens
1989: Losses for the SPD, gains for the Greens
1994: Losses for the SPD, gains for the Greens

1999: Losses for both SPD and Greens (German participation in the Kosovo War)
2004: Losses for the SPD, gains for the Greens
2009: Losses for the SPD, gains for the Greens
2014: Gains for the SPD, losses for the Greens



CDU/CSU and FDP have of course developed a similar symbiosis.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1887 on: February 13, 2017, 04:21:04 AM »
« Edited: February 13, 2017, 04:31:57 AM by 0% Approval Rating »

The federal executive committee of the AfD has voted in favour of starting procedures to expel their Thuringian state chairman Björn Höcke from the party.

Federal co-chairwoman Frauke Petry had filed this motion. Despite having won the required majority to start expulsion procedures, the "nay" votes on the executive committee were:

Petry's co-chairman Jörg Meuthen, deputy chairman Alexander Gauland, Saxon-Anhaltian state chairman André Poggenburg, and Lower Saxonian state chairman Armin-Paul Hampel.

This means the ongoing power struggle between Petry and Meuthen/Gauland enters the next phase, I guess.

The case lies now with the party's state board of arbitration in Thuringia, who will be the first to decide on the motion.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1888 on: February 13, 2017, 08:25:02 AM »

The federal executive committee of the AfD has voted in favour of starting procedures to expel their Thuringian state chairman Björn Höcke from the party.
Excellent news.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1889 on: February 13, 2017, 08:28:25 AM »

In a first reaction, the Thuringian state executive committee has denounced the decision. I suppose the AfD could lose their entire state party in Thuringia over this.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1890 on: February 13, 2017, 08:29:53 AM »

In a first reaction, the Thuringian state executive committee has denounced the decision. I suppose the AfD could lose their entire state party in Thuringia over this.
I'm sure the NPD will gladly take them.
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windjammer
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« Reply #1891 on: February 13, 2017, 08:41:10 AM »

The federal executive committee of the AfD has voted in favour of starting procedures to expel their Thuringian state chairman Björn Höcke from the party.

Federal co-chairwoman Frauke Petry had filed this motion. Despite having won the required majority to start expulsion procedures, the "nay" votes on the executive committee were:

Petry's co-chairman Jörg Meuthen, deputy chairman Alexander Gauland, Saxon-Anhaltian state chairman André Poggenburg, and Lower Saxonian state chairman Armin-Paul Hampel.

This means the ongoing power struggle between Petry and Meuthen/Gauland enters the next phase, I guess.

The case lies now with the party's state board of arbitration in Thuringia, who will be the first to decide on the motion.
So maybe Red-red-green could have a chance to survive next election?
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palandio
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« Reply #1892 on: February 13, 2017, 01:15:23 PM »

Old Europe is right that this should be regarded as part of an internal power struggle more than everything else.

Both the Petry wing and the Meuthen/Gauland wing have an entirely tactical approach regarding perceived extremism. See the case of the AfD Landtag member Wolfgang Gedeon from Baden-Württemberg, who is a Holocaust denying conspiracy theorist. In his case Meuthen wanted to kick him out (after some initial hesistance) and the Petry wing defended him. Now it's the other way round because Höcke is on Meuthen's and Gauland's side.

It's quite likely that in the end noone can kick out noone from the AfD because of the continued stalemate between the Meuthen/Gauland wing and the Petry wing.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1893 on: February 13, 2017, 01:41:55 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2017, 01:48:51 PM by 0% Approval Rating »

If Höcke loses and is expelled, he'll probably take his state party with him and form a new political party. I suspect that Poggenburg's Saxon-Anhaltian state party could try to follow him, since he's ideologically very close to Höcke. It then will be the question whether the bleeding stops there.

If Höcke wins and is not expelled - which could still happen - Frauke Petry's position will be severely damaged. And the political opponents of the AfD (so, about everybody) will attack them for accepting revisionsts, Hitler trivializers, and NPD sympathizers in their midst.

I for one will get the popcorn and watch this clusterf**k unfold.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1894 on: February 13, 2017, 02:18:41 PM »

How much could a Nazi breakaway party hurt the AfD electorally? Is there even much electoral space between the AfD and the NPD?
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windjammer
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« Reply #1895 on: February 13, 2017, 04:44:29 PM »

How much could a Nazi breakaway party hurt the AfD electorally? Is there even much electoral space between the AfD and the NPD?
There was something similar that happened in France in the 1990's and the beginning of the 2000's: a split happened inside the National Front (FN): many "cadres" of the party split and created the "Mouvement National Républicain".  Some other splits happened as well inside the National Front with Jacques Bompard. All these splits had in common:
- a strong regional base but not a national base: these newly created parties could do big scores in some part of the country (like MNR in Marseille), but they never were able to become something bigger than a regionalist party.
-Ideologically, they are less anti-system if it makes sense: they are more willing to try to create alliances with "mainstream" rightwing parties while the original far right party remains more reluctant to try to unite the right.
-These parties never last and lose progressively momentum.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1896 on: February 14, 2017, 01:35:07 AM »

Red-Red-Green with a small majority of 1 point in the new INSA poll:

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Beezer
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« Reply #1897 on: February 14, 2017, 05:09:15 AM »

Just another daily reminder that the Schulz train has no brakes.  
  
New poll from yesterday by "Trend Research Hamburg":  
  
SPD 30%  
CDU 30%  
AfD 13%  
Linke 9%  
Grüne 7%  
FDP 6%  
  
Today a new Emnid poll should come out later so we have a clearer view if Schulz and the SPD are still climbing or not. By the way in the last two weeks the SPD got around 5.000 new members, ten times as much as normal.

At this pace the next Chancellor will be Schulz, unless something highly unexpected occurs. The question then becomes: who will be the SPD's coalition partner(s)?

Highly unexpected like the rise of the SPD out of nowhere? This most certainly reminds me of the Green rise after Fukushima. And it of course also slowly but surely dissipated over time.

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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1898 on: February 14, 2017, 05:49:49 AM »

Red-Red-Green with a small majority of 1 point in the new INSA poll:



Pretty static INSA poll... FDP lost 1% compared to last week, otherwise no change.
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Bumaye
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« Reply #1899 on: February 14, 2017, 11:27:32 AM »

If Höcke loses and is expelled, he'll probably take his state party with him and form a new political party. I suspect that Poggenburg's Saxon-Anhaltian state party could try to follow him, since he's ideologically very close to Höcke. It then will be the question whether the bleeding stops there.

 
 
With Gauland (Brandenburg), Meuthen (Baden-Würtemberg) and Hampel (Lower Saxony) three other state leaders supported Höcke. While the sh**tstorm inside the AfD would be really fun to watch I hope they stay together. People like Gauland and Höcke are the guys who are to extreme for the average voter, it's much easier to prove how far right the AfD is with people like them.
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