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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655321 times)
tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« Reply #1000 on: February 03, 2016, 07:17:43 PM »

[...] Plus a very large percentage of the SPD vote is now coming from immigrants, [...]
I don't agree. At most 10% of people that are allowed to vote in German elections have a "migrational background" which includes having one foreign-born parent and the like. This also includes over 5 million ethnic German Spätaussiedler from the ex-USSR, Poland and Romania (ok, subtract the children), who certainly are not more pro-refugee than non-immigrants.
I would estimate that non-Spätaussiedler voters with "migrational background" make up about 4% of all German voters. About half of them might vote SPD, maybe less. So at most 10% (probably less) of current SPD voters are immigrants and their descendants. If that is a high percentage for you, then so be it.

The estimates I've seen are that 60-70% of German Muslims vote SPD, with the rest mostly going for the left as well. But 10% of a party's support is quite a lot; the Democrats or Republicans losing 10% of their support is the difference between a nailbiter like 2000 and a landslide like 1980 or 1996.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1001 on: February 03, 2016, 07:43:46 PM »

But 10% of a party's support is quite a lot; the Democrats or Republicans losing 10% of their support is the difference between a nailbiter like 2000 and a landslide like 1980 or 1996.
This is obviously different in a multi-party system. While I agree that losing 10% of a party's support matters (but 10% is a rather high estimation, given the fact that turnout among Muslims is likely lower than among non-Muslims), this is a bad example.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #1002 on: February 03, 2016, 08:33:09 PM »

Well, assuming the migrant crisis doesn't stay in the news till 2017 (although it could, I guess), thing can snap to a "status quo" very easily. German voters did that last time, irt the brief Greenmania and the Pirates. Only time will tell if the AfD can pull off a lasting colonisation of the right space of German politics against the colossus of the CDU party machine.



What's the FDP's reaction to the crisis btw? I notice they've dipped up in the polls.
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palandio
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« Reply #1003 on: February 04, 2016, 08:52:30 AM »

[...] Plus a very large percentage of the SPD vote is now coming from immigrants, [...]
I don't agree. At most 10% of people that are allowed to vote in German elections have a "migrational background" which includes having one foreign-born parent and the like. This also includes over 5 million ethnic German Spätaussiedler from the ex-USSR, Poland and Romania (ok, subtract the children), who certainly are not more pro-refugee than non-immigrants.
I would estimate that non-Spätaussiedler voters with "migrational background" make up about 4% of all German voters. About half of them might vote SPD, maybe less. So at most 10% (probably less) of current SPD voters are immigrants and their descendants. If that is a high percentage for you, then so be it.

The estimates I've seen are that 60-70% of German Muslims vote SPD, with the rest mostly going for the left as well. But 10% of a party's support is quite a lot; the Democrats or Republicans losing 10% of their support is the difference between a nailbiter like 2000 and a landslide like 1980 or 1996.
So now it's only Muslims we're talking about, not immigrants in general? Muslim German citizens make up at most 3% of German citizens (depends on who you count as a Muslim). Keeping in mind the reform of citizenship laws under Red-Green, a very large chunk of them is probably under 18, while the older generations (35+) have to a large degree not requested German citizenship.
But 10% of a party's support is quite a lot; the Democrats or Republicans losing 10% of their support is the difference between a nailbiter like 2000 and a landslide like 1980 or 1996.
This is obviously different in a multi-party system. While I agree that losing 10% of a party's support matters (but 10% is a rather high estimation, given the fact that turnout among Muslims is likely lower than among non-Muslims), this is a bad example.
Exactly, even among those German Muslims that are allowed to vote, turnout is clearly below average. Altogether German Muslims are not (yet) a relevant voting bloc like e.g. Maghrebis in France or Pakistanis/Bengalis in the UK. They are also quite diverse. The relatively largest group probably has a Sunni Turkish "guest worker" rural Anatolian background. But what about the Alevis, the Bosniaks, the Kurds, the Lebanese, the ex-stateless Palestinians and the nominally Muslim hard-left Turkish and Iranian 80s political emigrants? Do they all vote for the SPD, the Greens and the Left for the same reasons?
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« Reply #1004 on: February 04, 2016, 08:57:27 AM »

What's the FDP's reaction to the crisis btw? I notice they've dipped up in the polls.

More or less in line with Merkel, I think.

FDP federal chairman Christian Lindner gave a speech in the Northrhine-Westphalian state parliament a few days ago in which he stopped short of calling the AfD Nazis.

http://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/inland/umgang-mit-der-afd-sie-verharmlosen-die-wahren-feinde-unserer-gesellschaft-14048089.html
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1005 on: February 04, 2016, 11:38:46 AM »

...or Pakistanis/Bengalis in the UK.

Who don't actually form a single voting bloc either (and there are also Gujarati Muslims, and if we're talking of London then the Turkish Cypriots, the Turks, the Kurds...) even if sometimes there is related electoral movement.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1006 on: February 10, 2016, 04:48:55 PM »

   I'm wondering what type of election results in the upcoming Lander elections would lead to increasing calls for Merkel to go?  Isn't it likely that the CDU will actually take power in BW, whether in coalition or a minority government, so that fact alone might soften the blow for her?
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palandio
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« Reply #1007 on: February 10, 2016, 05:46:48 PM »

Yes, it is likely and yes, of course taking power in BW is much better for Merkel than staying in opposition in BW. But compared to repeating the 2011 desaster everything looks good. Not taking power in BW is unimmaginable for the CDU. Losing five percentage points compared to the desaster of 2011, but somehow taking power in a coalition with the SPD or the Greens, would be better, but still very bad.
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Beezer
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« Reply #1008 on: February 11, 2016, 02:32:35 PM »

Rhineland-Palatinate:

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« Reply #1009 on: February 16, 2016, 07:56:58 AM »

Wahl-o-mat for the Saxony-Anhalt state election is out:
http://wahlomat.spiegel.de/sa2016w/


My results were...

Greens 73.7%
Left 72.4%
Free Voters 63.2%
FDP 59.2%
SPD 56.6%
AfD 44.7%
NPD 38.2%
CDU 35.5%
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jaichind
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« Reply #1010 on: February 16, 2016, 08:02:47 AM »

Assuming that AfD does not collapse over the next couple of election cycles (like the Pirates did) and FDP gets across the 5% mark it seems that most reasonable future projections of election results over the next couple of elections will always end up with CDU/CSU-SPD grand alliance.  Only way out is for SDP-Green to accept Linke as an alliance partner, FDP agree to join SDP-Greens, or CDU/CSU-FDP accept AfD as an alliance partner.  I wonder which three is more likely to take place ?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1011 on: February 16, 2016, 08:14:17 AM »

My results:

71.0% Animal Protection Party
71.0% Animal Protection Alliance
71.0% Free Voters
68.5% Greens
66.1% Left
63.7% The Party
62.9% SPD
59.7% FBM
59.7% The Right
57.3% AfD
54.0% FDP
54.0% ALFA
50.0% NPD
37.9% CDU
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1012 on: February 16, 2016, 08:38:54 AM »

Only way out is for SDP-Green to accept Linke as an alliance partner, FDP agree to join SDP-Greens, or CDU/CSU-FDP accept AfD as an alliance partner.  I wonder which three is more likely to take place ?

You forgot a CDU/Green coalition which is actually more likely than any of those three IMO.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1013 on: February 16, 2016, 08:42:53 AM »

Only way out is for SDP-Green to accept Linke as an alliance partner, FDP agree to join SDP-Greens, or CDU/CSU-FDP accept AfD as an alliance partner.  I wonder which three is more likely to take place ?

You forgot a CDU/Green coalition which is actually more likely than any of those three IMO.

Not sure there are the numbers for that if both FDP and AfD goes over 5%.  Perhaps CDU/CSU-FDP-Green ?
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DL
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« Reply #1014 on: February 16, 2016, 10:01:52 AM »

Only way out is for SDP-Green to accept Linke as an alliance partner, FDP agree to join SDP-Greens, or CDU/CSU-FDP accept AfD as an alliance partner.  I wonder which three is more likely to take place ?

You forgot a CDU/Green coalition which is actually more likely than any of those three IMO.

Not sure there are the numbers for that if both FDP and AfD goes over 5%.  Perhaps CDU/CSU-FDP-Green ?

Isnt that what they call a "Jamaica coalition"??
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1015 on: February 16, 2016, 10:10:14 AM »

AfD 67,9%
FDP 64,1%
CDU 61,5%
Tierschutzpartei 61,5%
Freie Wähler 51,3%
NPD 51,3%
ALFA 48,7%
SPD 48,7%
Die Partei 35,9%
LINKE 28,2%
Grüne 25,6%

Would vote for AfD.
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Beezer
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« Reply #1016 on: February 17, 2016, 04:12:08 AM »

States where the AfD is polling above 10%

Saxony-Anhalt: 17%
Mecklenburg-West Pommerania: 16%
Thuringia: 13.5%
Saxony: 13%
Hamburg: 13%
Hessen: 12%
Brandenburg: 11%
Baden-Württemberg: 10.5%
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1017 on: February 17, 2016, 06:33:12 AM »

Wahl-o-mat for the Rhineland-Palatinate state election is out:
http://wahlomat.spiegel.de/rp2016w/

My results:
Pirate Party 72.4%
Left 71.1%
SPD 69.7%
Greens 65.8%
CDU 60.5%
Free Voters 59.2%
FDP 51.3%
AfD 40.8%
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1018 on: February 17, 2016, 06:42:10 AM »

ALFA 72,6%
AfD 67,9%
FDP 56%
SPD 50%
CDU 48,8%
Piraten 45,2%
Grüne 33,3%
Linke 33,3%
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jaichind
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« Reply #1019 on: February 17, 2016, 08:25:14 AM »

Latest Saxony-Anhalt poll by Infratest dimap

CDU   32
SPD   18
Linke  20
Green  5
FDP     4
AfD    17

What a surge by AfD.  I guess it took over the NPD vote and clawed support from across the board.
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palandio
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« Reply #1020 on: February 17, 2016, 08:57:03 AM »

Saxony-Anhalt has quite a big potential for a right-wing protest vote. In the 1998 regional elections the far-right DVU https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_People's_Union reached as much as 12.9%. This was quite a shock at that time. They had electoral spots like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gG8bZ_gWBbQ
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Beezer
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« Reply #1021 on: February 18, 2016, 12:37:04 PM »

CDU tanking in Baden-Württemberg (compared to January results from the same pollster):

CDU: 31 (-4)
Greens: 28 (0)
SPD: 14 (-1)
AfD: 12 (+2)
FDP: 8 (+2)
Left: 4 (+1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm
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DL
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« Reply #1022 on: February 18, 2016, 03:51:47 PM »

CDU tanking in Baden-Württemberg (compared to January results from the same pollster):

CDU: 31 (-4)
Greens: 28 (0)
SPD: 14 (-1)
AfD: 12 (+2)
FDP: 8 (+2)
Left: 4 (+1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm

Looks to me like the only possible government in that scenario would be a Green-led "traffic light coalition" with the SPD and FDP - right?
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tpfkaw
wormyguy
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« Reply #1023 on: February 18, 2016, 04:53:29 PM »

CDU tanking in Baden-Württemberg (compared to January results from the same pollster):

CDU: 31 (-4)
Greens: 28 (0)
SPD: 14 (-1)
AfD: 12 (+2)
FDP: 8 (+2)
Left: 4 (+1)

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/baden-wuerttemberg.htm

Looks to me like the only possible government in that scenario would be a Green-led "traffic light coalition" with the SPD and FDP - right?

That seems less plausible than CDU-Greens or CDU-SDP-FDP.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1024 on: February 19, 2016, 01:40:06 AM »

Can't wait for the German voters to show the middle-finger to Merkel.

It's time for her to press the "STOP"-button at her migrant vacuum cleaner and go from welcome policy to determent/deportation policy ...
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