German Elections & Politics

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though equally you need to be careful about reading too much into poll internals, particularly at a midpoint stage in a parliamentary term.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Bild headline: Will Merkel soon be forced out of office?



I'd say unthinkable headline a couple of weeks ago.

And according to Beatrix von Storch, Merkel is gonna be forced to flee into Chilean exile!

[palandio]

[...]
And according to Beatrix von Storch, Merkel is gonna be forced to flee into Chilean exile!

That's an allusion to Margot Honecker, former Eastern German Minister of Education and wife of Erich Honecker, the last leader of socialist Eastern Germany. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margot_Honecker
Von Storch is comparing Merkel, who has a DDR past, to Margot Honecker.

[President Johnson]

CDU/CSU ... worst result since 2013 and 6 points below where they were 2 months ago.

Rumours go, the CSU is considering to withdraw their ministers from the cabinet, says Germany's biggest tabloid.

Good.

Merkel and CDU/CSU deserve all their recent troubles and collapsing poll numbers.

After all, Merkel was elected by the German citizens/voters to serve their interests and not the interests of the millions of migrants, which Rabenmutti now suddenly wants to crowd into the country.

The problem with that is, that only populists are benefit from that. The least thing I want to have after 2017 (and in the states) is another grand coalition. That only weackens democracy. But the rise of right-wing populists make it impossible for other coalitions to emerge. Just look at Austria, they have a grand coalition all the time.

[Middle-aged Europe]

[...]
And according to Beatrix von Storch, Merkel is gonna be forced to flee into Chilean exile!

That's an allusion to Margot Honecker, former Eastern German Minister of Education and wife of Erich Honecker, the last leader of socialist Eastern Germany. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margot_Honecker
Von Storch is comparing Merkel, who has a DDR past, to Margot Honecker.

What's your point?

[DavidB.]

[...]
And according to Beatrix von Storch, Merkel is gonna be forced to flee into Chilean exile!

That's an allusion to Margot Honecker, former Eastern German Minister of Education and wife of Erich Honecker, the last leader of socialist Eastern Germany. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Margot_Honecker
Von Storch is comparing Merkel, who has a DDR past, to Margot Honecker.

What's your point?

Palandio is probably just explaining this to non-German posters who didn't get the reference.

[palandio]

Exactly. My thought was that most international readers might have wondered "Why Chile?".
(Of course Paul Schäfer was also in a certain sense a German exilee in Chile, but I don't think von Storch wanted to compare Merkel to a pedophile, fascist cult and concentration camp founder.)

[Beezer]

Allensbach poll (compared to Dec 16)

CDU 35 (-3)
SPD 25 (-1)
AfD 10 (+2)
Linke 9,5 (+1)
Grüne 9 (-0,5)
FDP 6,5 (+1,5)
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/allensbach.htm

[Tender Branson]

Isn't the AfD already at 13% in the YouGov poll ?

[Beezer]

Yeah. And this poll of poll indicates that the CDU is heading south across the board once again.


http://pollytix.de/wahltrend

[Beezer]

40 percent of Germans demand Merkel's resignation over refugee policy, poll says

While 39.9 percent of Germans surveyed by the pollster Insa for "Focus" magazine said Chancellor Angela Merkel's refugee policy is grounds for her to step down, 45.2 percent of the more than 2,000 people polled said they did not believe she should leave office. The remaining 15 percent did not state an opinion.

http://www.dw.com/en/40-percent-of-germans-demand-merkels-resignation-over-refugee-policy-poll-says/a-19011014

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to the latest ZDF Politbarometer, 83% of all Germans say that they experienced "only minor problems" or "no problems" with the refugees living in their area (or that no refugees live in their area at all).

70% say that they're not afraid to become a victim of a refugee-related crime.

66% expect an increase in the crime rate due to the refugees.

54% disapprove of Chancellor Merkel's refugee/immigration policies, 41% approve.

52% name either the CDU/CSU or the SPD as the party with the "greatest competence" with regards to refugee/immigration policies. 30% say either "no party" or "don't know". 12% say either Greens, Left Party, or FDP. 6% say AfD.

[Beezer]

CDU/CSU with their worst showing in an Emnid poll since the summer of 2012:

CDU/CSU 34 (-2)
SPD 24 (-1)
AfD 12 (+2)
Left 10 (+1)
Greens 9
FDP 5

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

[Tender Branson]

Looks like Germany is getting ready and learn how to "protest-vote" in the March state elections.

Merkel and Co. will see a huge middle-finger from the voters due to her reckless migrant policy ...

[jaichind]

Looks like Germany is getting ready and learn how to "protest-vote" in the March state elections.

Merkel and Co. will see a huge middle-finger from the voters due to her reckless migrant policy ...

Not sure if the net impact will be that large.  Yes AfD will go up a lot but the net impact will be more Grand Coalitions between CDU and SPD.  Also 2011 tend to be a fairly bad year for CDU so not clear they will not lose that much votes relative to 2011.  Most likley AfD will gain more from SPD Greens Linke and Pirates relative to 2011.

[Hnv1]

I cannot understand the SPD membership, why do they keep Gabriel in place? the party is clearly drifting into a junior coalition partner oblivion

[DavidB.]

I cannot understand the SPD membership, why do they keep Gabriel in place? the party is clearly drifting into a junior coalition partner oblivion

Why? The SPD is relatively stable in the polls. It's the CDU that is losing.

[aross]

I cannot understand the SPD membership, why do they keep Gabriel in place? the party is clearly drifting into a junior coalition partner oblivion

Internal democracy in the SPD has always been very weak (e.g. Helmut Schmidt, who managed to cling to office despite being basically the only the person in the party supporting his pro-cruise missile defence policy), and a membership increasingly consisting of pensioners hasn't helped.

[rob in cal]

   Doesn't it make sense that the SPD is holding its place in the polls.  I would think most of its electorate wouldn't be too opposed to Merkels migrant policy.  It would be the CDU electorate which I would think would be more opposed to it.

[DavidB.]

  Doesn't it make sense that the SPD is holding its place in the polls.  I would think most of its electorate wouldn't be too opposed to Merkels migrant policy.  It would be the CDU electorate which I would think would be more opposed to it.

Yes, and let's also not forget that some prominent SPD members have come out as critical of Merkel's policies. They are open about being to Merkel's "right" on this issue. Also, the SPD is already the most immigration-critical option on the German left (seeing as the Greens and Die Linke either support Merkel's policies or something even "leftier" than that). Immigration-critical left-wing Germans have nowhere else to go; they could theoretically vote AfD, of course, but this party will be too right-wing for many people, and also too "ostracized". It is simply too big of a step for many.

[Hnv1]

I cannot understand the SPD membership, why do they keep Gabriel in place? the party is clearly drifting into a junior coalition partner oblivion

Why? The SPD is relatively stable in the polls. It's the CDU that is losing.

I would think their ambition is to be in power not to be a stable runner up...

[DavidB.]

I cannot understand the SPD membership, why do they keep Gabriel in place? the party is clearly drifting into a junior coalition partner oblivion

Why? The SPD is relatively stable in the polls. It's the CDU that is losing.

I would think their ambition is to be in power not to be a stable runner up...

But would they be much more successful with a new leader? Given the current political climate and the developments in other European countries I highly doubt it. I could imagine the SPD becoming more popular if they take a clear stance to Merkel's right on immigration, but that's a risky thing to do in Germany.

In some sense, the political situation in Germany has become similar to that in Sweden. Neither the left (Rot-Rot-Grün; which, in Germany, would probably not be a viable option anyway, unlike an all-left-wing government in Sweden) nor the bourgeois right (Union + FDP; Alliance for Sweden) has a majority. There is a third political force (AfD; SD), which is ostracized, that prevents any majority government that does not depend on working across the aisle from being formed. Of course, working across the aisle in forming governments is easier in Germany than in Sweden, since the Germans have much less of a problem with grand coalitions. But it also means that there aren't exactly many alternatives to an Union+SPD grand coalition, even after the next election... if the election results will look anything like the current polls, that is.

[tpfkaw]

I could imagine the SPD becoming more popular if they take a clear stance to Merkel's right on immigration, but that's a risky thing to do in Germany.

The Danish Social Democrats have tried that, with mixed/unclear results. It really wouldn't be possible for the SPD to walk back their position that far given "refugees welcome" and how maximalist and strident the German left's rhetoric has been. They would infuriate too many of their core supporters; it would be like if Hillary started attacking Obamacare from the right. Plus a very large percentage of the SPD vote is now coming from immigrants, and they would likely decamp to the Greens, Linke or maybe even CDU.

If for some reason they did go in that direction, and it would be very risky, probably the best way to finesse it would be to 1. replace the leader, 2. endorse immigration controls as part of a repudiation of "neoliberal" policies in general, and 3. announce they will not agree to another grand coalition, nor will they continue to honor the cordon sanitaire against Linke. Basically, position themselves along the lines of Andy Burnham, polarize German politics into camps, and stem the losses to the Greens and CDU by poaching from Linke and AfD. But most likely it would backfire.

[palandio]

[...] Plus a very large percentage of the SPD vote is now coming from immigrants, [...]

I don't agree. At most 10% of people that are allowed to vote in German elections have a "migrational background" which includes having one foreign-born parent and the like. This also includes over 5 million ethnic German Spätaussiedler from the ex-USSR, Poland and Romania (ok, subtract the children), who certainly are not more pro-refugee than non-immigrants.
I would estimate that non-Spätaussiedler voters with "migrational background" make up about 4% of all German voters. About half of them might vote SPD, maybe less. So at most 10% (probably less) of current SPD voters are immigrants and their descendants. If that is a high percentage for you, then so be it.

[SNJ1985]

New INSA/YouGov poll

CDU/CSU: 33%
SPD: 23%
AfD: 12,5%
Grünen: 10%
Linke: 10%
FDP: 6%
Others: 5,5%