German Elections & Politics

[SNJ1985]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/10/europe-migrants-germany-poll-idUSL5N11G47R20150910

In a recent poll, 36% of Germans say the government isn't doing enough to help refugees, while 27% say it is doing too much.

[politicus]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/10/europe-migrants-germany-poll-idUSL5N11G47R20150910

In a recent poll, 36% of Germans say the government isn't doing enough to help refugees, while 27% say it is doing too much.

The most interesting about those numbers are the the remaining 37%.  

[SNJ1985]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/09/10/europe-migrants-germany-poll-idUSL5N11G47R20150910

In a recent poll, 36% of Germans say the government isn't doing enough to help refugees, while 27% say it is doing too much.

The most interesting about those numbers are the the remaining 37%. 

Through google.de, I found another article which states that the poll actually says 36% think the government is doing just the right amount, 34% don't think it is doing enough, and 27% think it is doing too much...that still leaves 3 percent. Maybe they were undecided.

http://www.n24.de/n24/d/7280314/haelfte-der-deutschen-will-mehr-grenzkontrollen.html

(It's in German, obviously)

[Middle-aged Europe]

     If there was still a CDU/FDP government, would its stance toward the refugee/migrant crisis be any different than what we are seeing?

Probably not.

[Beezer]

CDU/CSU hurt by migration crisis as voters on their part migrate to the AfD?


http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

[SNJ1985]

CDU/CSU hurt by migration crisis as voters on their part migrate to the AfD?


http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

The AfD does indeed appear to be taking support from the CDU and CSU:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/09/15/uk-europe-migrants-germany-poll-idUKKCN0RF0T920150915

[politicus]

CDU/CSU hurt by migration crisis as voters on their part migrate to the AfD?


http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

The AfD does indeed appear to be taking support from the CDU and CSU:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/09/15/uk-europe-migrants-germany-poll-idUKKCN0RF0T920150915

Yeah, but even if AfD is useless, the German polls are still remarkably unaffected by this. In most other countries we would see huge swings to the anti-immigration right with an inflow this big.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, but even if AfD is useless, the German polls are still remarkably unaffected by this. In most other countries we would see huge swings to the anti-immigration right with an inflow this big.

Yes, neighboring Austria is a clear example for that.

[Beezer]

I think if the AfD was a party not dissimilar to the FPÖ (ie having been in the political business for decades) we'd see a somewhat similar swing as well. But of course the AfD has to contend with the problems any right-wing party faces in Germany. They're lucky to even be invited to the dozens of talk shows that have dealt with the migration crisis on German tv in recent weeks.

[Beezer]

AfD - unsurprisingly - rising as of late:


http://pollytix.de/wahltrend

[Beezer]

Headlne # today: AfD would get 9% in Bavaria in federal election:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/laender.htm#by

[rob in cal]

   Also, the Others category is up to 9%.  Wonder who predominates in that group.

[palandio]

Others were at 9.1% in Bavaria in the 2013 federal election, so that numbers hasn't changed at all. The "other" parties were:

2.7% Free Voters (municipalism, rural interests, "not a party", soft euro-scepticism)
1.9% Pirate Party
1.0% Ecological Democratic Party (conservative environmentalists)
0.9% Bavaria Party (separatists, imho quite right-leaning)
0.9% NPD (nazis)
0.7% Animal Welfare Party
0.4% Republicans (a far-right party that was successful about 20-30 years ago and has been steadily declining since then)
0.2% Women
0.1% The Violets ("For spiritual politics")
0.1% Party of Reason (Right-wing libertarians)
0.1% Pro Germany (far-right, mainly based in North Rhine Westphalia)
0.0% Alliance 21/ Pensioneers' Party
0.0% Marxist-Leninist Party of Germany
0.0% Citizens' Rights Movement Solidarity (LaRouche followers)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What about the split from AfD?

[Beezer]

Alfa? I don't think anyone is really paying attention to them anymore. Lucke chose the worst possible time to start a new anti-€ party - at the moment when the eurozone crisis subsided (once again) only to be completely supplanted by the migrant crisis.

[Beezer]

A third of Germans think Merkel should step down over her handling of the migrant crisis, according to an INSA/Focus poll.

http://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/drastische-forderung-wegen-fluechtlingspolitik-jeder-dritte-deutsche-will-merkels-ruecktritt_id_5008727.html

INSA also has the CDU/CSU at a 16 month low in their election poll:

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm

[Tender Branson]

I wonder if the migrant crisis will also lead to higher turnout in German state elections in March 2016 (BW, RP and SA) - like it did in Upper Austria and Vienna.

[Beezer]

Latest Emnid poll has CDU/CSU at 37%, worst result since Mai of 2013 and 6 points below where they were 2 months ago.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/emnid.htm

[politicus]

Knife stabbed Henriette Reker elected Lord Mayor of Cologne, while still in artificial coma after the assault.

She got 52.7 and her closest competitor Jochen Ott from SPD got 32. So a clear victory in the first round.

Congrats.

[ag]

The people of Cologne have given a clear answer about their wishes. The German constitutional system gave them ample opportunity to do so.

[ag]

Full results,

Reker (Ind) 52.66%
Ott (SPD) 32.02%
Benecke (Die PARTEI) 7.22%
Rottmann (AfD) 4.01%
Hovelmann (Ind) 2.82%
Neumeyer (Ind) 0.78%
Krieger (REP) 0.49%

Invalid votes: 0.97%

 

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Lol at DIE PARTIE

[ag]

Lol at DIE PARTIE

At least in Cologne, die PARTEI is less of a joke than AfD, it seems

[Beezer]

Infratest dimap poll, party preferences divided into west and east.

West/East
CDU 39/34
SPD 25/19
Greens 13/5
Left 6/20
FDP 6/3
AfD 7/11

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap/ost.htm

[Tender Branson]

CDU/CSU reach their lowest level in more than 3 years:

EMNID

36% CDU/CSU (-7% compared with 2 months ago)
26% SPD (+2)
10% Greens (nc)
10% Left (nc)
  7% AfD (+4)
  5% FDP (+1)
  6% Others (nc)