German Elections & Politics

[Franknburger]

Had to take a break from the Forum, for a number of reasons. I will probably in future not contribute as extensively as in 2013/ early 2014, but for a Hamburg election, I of course need to be here..

I'm guessing right-wing parties didn't win a single precinct this time? That would make up for the fact that both AfD and FDP got in.

Not quite right. I checked some of the usual suspects:

Precinct 21906 (Othmarschen) - a very posh part of the Elbchausse, the area just east of the Jenischpark, up to the Großflottbek golf course. As expenisve as Hamburg can get:
FDP      33.6 (+ 6.9)
SPD      30.0 (+3.7)
CDU     22.4 (-14.6)
Grüne    6.7 (- 0.5)
AFD       5.8
Linke     0.8 (-0.4)

Neighnouring precinct 21905 to the east, also covering the poshest part of the Elbchausse, but a bit closer to green-alternative Ottensen, was narrowly taken by the FDP (29.5%), with SPD at 28.5, CDU at 21.4 (-13.8 ), Grüne at 10.1, Linke at 4.3 and AFD at  2,8.
However, precinct 22202, just west of the Jenischpark, also very upscale, and including an upcale private home for elderly, went 39% SPD (FDP 23, CDU 20, Grüne 8, AFD 6, Linke 1.5). in 2011, the CDU still won the precinct with 38%, in the 2013 federal election they carried it with 55%. Candidates matter, and seniors appear to have flocked back to a Helmut Schmidt-type, gaffe-free, prgamatist and centrist social democrate, who doesn't talk about increasing taxes.
There are nevertheless a handful of other precincts further down the Elbe that the SPD only took very narrowly, e.g. 22308 (Blankenese - Falkensteiner Ufer), with SPD at 29.0 vs. FDP at 28.7 (CDU 17.8, Grüne 12.5, AFD 6.4).

Over to the Alster:

Precinct 41306 (Winterhude) - the norhtern end of the Alster lake, also extremely posh. A bit more inland, there is nice late 19th-century appartment housing, so voting is a bit more inner-city-ish than on the Elbchaussee:
CDU    30.2 (-5.0)
SPD     27.9 (-3.9)
FDP     26.2 (+2.1)
Grüne   5.5 (+1.6)
Linke    4.8 (+2.3)
AFD      3.1
In the federal election 2013, it was 55% CDU, 13% FDP, and - interestingly - 7% AFD. In Hamburg, foregners are not a threat, but the source of wealth (and the main mosque, established in the 1950s by Iranian carpet traders, is just a bit further down the east bank of the Alster).

Precinct 31202 (Rotherbaum) -  the southwestern end of the Alster lake, close to the University, and also to downtown. More penthouse style, few villas. Traditionally home to the Jewish community, which traditionally votes FDP. While the SPD was the strongest party, FDP & CDU together almost reached 50%.
SPD      32.7 (-4.4)
FDP      25.3 (+8.6)
CDU     23.7 (-7.8 )
Grüne    7.8 (+0.5)
AFD       5.4
Linke     3.3 (-0.4)

Precinct 31404 (Harvestehude) - a bit further north along the western bank of the Alster lake:
CDU     31.4 (-1.3)
FDP      27.1 (+6.0)
SPD      25.9 (-8.5)
Grüne     5.8 (-1.9)
AFD        4.3
Linke      3.9 (+2.1)

Precinct 31308 (Harvestehude) - adjacent to the north, also along the western bank of the Alster lake:
CDU     33.7 (+1.7)
FDP      26.4 (+4.9)
SPD      24.1 (-8.6)
AFD        7.0
Grüne     4.6 (-3.2)
Linke      2.8 (+0.1)

Don't know why in the last  two precincts the CDU held so well, and the SPD lost so heavily. Probably a local issue (bus fast-tracking obsessing car owners?).
  
But that, indeed, seems to be it. Even the posher part of the HafenCity (10301) voted 43.3% SPD (FDP 21.2, Grüne 12.8, CDU 12.7, Linke 5.1, AFD 3.6). And the SPD swept the marsh villages, traditional CDU strongholds (not htat there are may voters, but anyway..)

[Middle-aged Europe]

A lot of speculation in the media whether Olaf Scholz could become the SPD's next Chancellor-candidate. Of course, I remember the same debate happening exactly four years ago. And at the same time, there are also editotirals discussing how someone as bland as Olaf Scholz can achieve such overwhelming election victories.

Well, it's Hamburg, stupid. And at least Scholz isn't known to be completely incompetent.

But to speculate whether he could become Chancellor-candidate is almost like discussing whether the Bavarian minister-president is a shoe-in as CDU/CSU Chancellor-candidate, only because he happens to win by such huge margins in his state.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Scholz would just happen to be Steinbrück reloaded in so many ways.

On the other hand, there seems to be some discussion, weither Scholz is "SPD's Merkel" or at least is "acting like Merkel" in a political sense, which seems to be very far fetched for me.

[windjammer]

How did the CDU manage to basically lose 30 points?

[Tender Branson]

How did the CDU manage to basically lose 30 points?

A) Mayor Scholz (SPD) is massively popular (83% approval rating among all voters)

B) The CDU-candidate (whatshisname ?) is basically unknown to voters

C) The FDP had a solid and media-savvy frontrunner and the party cut into the CDU-vote

D) The AfD cut into the CDU vote

E) There was no desire for change, because the Hamburg economy does well and voters thought the SPD was doing a good job not only on this issue but also with all other important issues

[Tender Branson]

Final Hamburg results:

45.7% SPD (-2.7%)
15.9% CDU (-6.0%)
12.3% Greens (+1.1%)
  8.5% Left (+2.1%)
  7.4% FDP (+0.7%)
  6.1% AfD (+6.1%)
  1.6% Pirates (-0.5%)
  0.9% The Party (+0.2%)
  0.5% New Liberals (+0.5%)
  0.4% ÖDP (+0.1%)
  0.3% NPD (-0.6%)
  0.3% Retirees (-0.2%)
  0.2% HHBL (+0.2%)
  0.0% Others (-1.0%)

Turnout: 56.9% (-0.4%)

[solarstorm]

How did the CDU manage to basically lose 30 points?

A) Mayor Scholz (SPD) is massively popular (83% approval rating among all voters)

B) The CDU-candidate (whatshisname ?) is basically unknown to voters

C) The FDP had a solid and media-savvy frontrunner and the party cut into the CDU-vote

D) The AfD cut into the CDU vote

E) There was no desire for change, because the Hamburg economy does well and voters thought the SPD was doing a good job not only on this issue but also with all other important issues

F) People currently don't know what the CDU stands for.



G) The SPD outperforms the CDU in all their core competencies: economy and fight against crime

[Yeahsayyeah]

On the other hand, noone knows what Angela Merkel's CDU stands for and they are very successful at the federal level. ;-)

[Middle-aged Europe]

On the other hand, noone knows what Angela Merkel's CDU stands for and they are very successful at the federal level. ;-)

In a way, Angela Merkel's administration is the quintessential "conservative" government. They stand for stability, safety, and reliability. Nothing fancy, nothing radical, no risks. They're the Volkswagen among governments. The downside of course is that it is also horribly stagnant and uninspired.

[Tender Branson]

Cool interactive Hamburg results map by district:

http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_2015_hh_bue/index.html

Click left where it says "Wahlbeteiligung" (turnout) and choose a party.

[Hifly]

Cool interactive Hamburg results map by district:

http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_2015_hh_bue/index.html

Click left where it says "Wahlbeteiligung" (turnout) and choose a party.

Do you know how to find the precinct results?

[Tender Branson]

Cool interactive Hamburg results map by district:

http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_2015_hh_bue/index.html

Click left where it says "Wahlbeteiligung" (turnout) and choose a party.

Do you know how to find the precinct results?

They are not on the map, only in tabular form:

http://www.wahlen-hamburg.de/wahlen.php?site=left/gebiete&wahltyp=3

Go to "Auszählungsstand" and click on "Stimmbezirke".

Choose either "Wahlkreisliste" or "Landesliste".

[Tender Branson]

You can also click on the (+) signs on the left side of the main page and the precincts will open.

[Franknburger]

How did the CDU manage to basically lose 30 points?

A) Mayor Scholz (SPD) is massively popular (83% approval rating among all voters)

B) The CDU-candidate (whatshisname ?) is basically unknown to voters

C) The FDP had a solid and media-savvy frontrunner and the party cut into the CDU-vote

D) The AfD cut into the CDU vote

E) There was no desire for change, because the Hamburg economy does well and voters thought the SPD was doing a good job not only on this issue but also with all other important issues

F) People currently don't know what the CDU stands for.

G) The SPD outperforms the CDU in all their core competencies: economy and fight against crime

H) Allowing 16 and 17-years old to vote damaged the CDU, and to a lesser extent also the SPD, which both are strongest among seniors. It especially benefitted the Greens (18% among 16-17 years old) but also the FDP (8%), Pirates (4%), probably also Die PARTEI.


I) Lower turnout compared to the 2013 Federal election appears to have mostly hit the CDU. In spite of allowing 16/17 years old to vote, there were some 180.000 voters less than in the 2013 Federal election. The CDU lost more than 170.000 voters. Up to half of them may have switched sides, but a good part of the 2013 CDU electorate, a quarter of which was older than 70, appears to have abstained (to the extent they did not die in the meantime). In contrast, the SPD gained some 36.000 votes, and AFD 6.000 votes. The NPD lost almost 3.300 votes, I have a guess where many of them went this time.

K) While first analyses indicates that only a minority of voters, and especially younger voters, did split their votes on several parties, vote-splitting should have damaged the larger parties, and could have especially weakened the CDU in favour of FDP and AFD.

L) Add to this tactical voting during the 2013 federal election, where voters on one hand wanted to penalise the federal FDP, and on the other hand wanted to strengthen Merkel in an anticipated Grand coalition. The 2013 Federal election had the FDP underperforming in Hamburg by some 4 percent compared to their long-term federal and local results, and the CDU overperforming correspondingly. Many traditional FDP voters have come back, and the AFD is gradually eroding the CDU from the right (though that should only make up for a bit more than 1%).


All in all a perfect storm against the CDU - a strong opponent and a weak own candidate, competition from other centre-right parties including a resurging FDP, an election system in favour of smaller parties, and the party's traditional weakness with younger voters becoming exaggerated by lowering the voting age to 16 years.

The Hamburg statistical office has election maps by city district up:
http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_2015_hh_bue/index.html
No major surprises here. Best districts by party:

SPD: Waltershof-Finkenwerder 58% (south of the Elbe, location of the Airbus plant)
CDU: Reitbrook 31% (marsh village in the east)
Grüne: Sternschanze 27% (surprise, surprise..)
Linke: Kleiner Grasbrook/ Steinwerder 32% (port area, see my post above)
FDP: Nienstedten 23% (posh district on the Lower Elbe, see above)
AFD: Billbrook 13.3% (sh**tty industrial area, see above)

AFD ist strongest in the blue-collarish east (Billbrook/ Billstedt/ Moorfleet) and the eastern part of Harburg borough south of the Elbe. The latter may relate to the fact that AFD chairman Lucke comes from Winsen/Luhe, which is just 25 km southeast of Harburg.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting also that the Left did best in the districts just south of the city-center with the highest migration background (which are also the poorest), and not the Greens or the SPD.

Go to "Themen" and select "Sozialstruktur":

https://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_HH_2015_WK_Struktur/atlas.html

[Franknburger]

Interesting also that the Left did best in the districts just south of the city-center with the highest migration background (which are also the poorest), and not the Greens or the SPD.

Go to "Themen" and select "Sozialstruktur":

https://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/maps/election_HH_2015_WK_Struktur/atlas.html

Issues here are a bit different:
Moorburg/Altenwerder: Both used to be apple farming villages. In the 1970s, the area was designated by SPD/ FDP governments for port extension, which became a major issue for the emerging green-alternative protest movement in the 1980s. Altenwerder got completely cleared of inhabitants (including my in-laws and my wife) and has been turned into an industrial area, but Moorburg was preserved. Nevertheless, it attracted the kind of people who didn't mind they might be resettled over the next 10 years, as long as they could for the moment live cheaply in an area with countryside feel yet not too far from the city.

It was a green stronghold until the late 1990s. Then, the Green party, against there election promise, accepted a new coal-fired power plant there as price for entering the coalition with the CDU. Apparently, many locals haven't forgiven the Greens yet that breach of their promise.

That black-green coalition is still damaging the Greens in their traditional inner-city strongholds (St. Pauli, Sternschanze, Altona, Ottensen) though it helped them to gain ground in more up-scale suburbs along the Elbe and in the north-east.

Veddel: The high migration background isn't so decisive, as many don't have voting rights or abstain. It is first of all a symptom of demographic change. Most of Veddel contains late 1920s/ early 1930 housing blocks, where since construction inhabitants turned over twice. In 1987, more than 15% of inhabitants were over 65, by 2004 it was down to less than 7% (currently its 7.5%). The old inhabitants dying away facilitated both entrance of immigrants, and of young Germans. The place is quite central (two stops from the central railway station), the 1930s blocks have some flair, but with the railway to the east and the motorway to the west, it is polluted and noisy. Moreover, being an island within the port area, you hardly have nature or parks within walking distance. Hence, rents are rather cheap. Essentially, we are talking younger inner-city voters, just like in Sternschanze/ St. Pauli, in a place a bit more distant from the University and thus with a slightly lower share of students.


Kleiner Grasbrook:  Technically an extension to Veddel, but a bit more extreme. All shopping and social infrastructure is on the Veddel, howeever, you are a bit more distant from the motorway noise (though not the train noise)). Even more population tournover over the last decade -lowest share of seniors (4.7%), but also children (7%) in all of Hamburg, and voting accordingly. The same, by the way, also applies to the Reiherstieg area, the adjacent NE part of   
Wilhemsburg, which is just getting "hip", also due to the annual Dockville festival.


Here, there are three local issues:
1.) Ole van Beust's "Jump across the Elbe" strategy included upgrading of especially Wilhelmsburg, but also the Veddel, to link the HafenCity and its smaller (though more spectacular) pendant in the Harburg port area. The 2013 International Construction Exhibition in Wilhelmsburg, and relocation of the Hamburg Office for Urban Development to Wilhelmsburg (photo below) were key element of that strategy. The Greens, in charge of Urban Development during the black-green coalition, supported this. However, their intended "breakthrough for environmental housing concepts" turned out to be "appartment housing as usual" - quite a disappointment.
The "Jump across the Elbe" strategy has increased fear for, and resistance against gentrification of Wilhelmsburg and Veddel, while the Greens have lost much credibility in this respect. [For the strong exposition to traffic noise and industrial emissions, I personally think that the Veddel, to a lesser extent also many parts of Wilhelmsburg, will not suffer as much from gentrification as e.g. Sternschanze, but the concern is nevertheless present with many inhabitants.]


2.) The SPD's concept for the 2024 Olympic Games bid foresees building the Olympic Stadium on the Kleine Grasbrook, on an area that currently (until 2019) is still under Czech administration (Treaty of Versailles). It isn't difficult to imagine what that would mean traffic-wise to the adjacent areas. Not really helping the SPD here.
 
3.) The city-owned Hamburg Port Authority intends to turn the Dockville festival grounds into an warehousing area. Both Greens and Linke oppose this plan, and it seems to be under re-consideration now.
http://www.spiegel.de/kultur/musik/hamburger-musikfestival-dockville-vom-ende-bedroht-a-846563.html

A number of other "development plans" by the Hamburg Port Authority, e.g. turning down a 1930s warehouse on the Veddel, listed as architectural monument, could also be stopped at the last moment due to local public protest. Nevertheless, the HPA is doing their best to revive old feelings of the city government not giving a damn about people living in/ near the port zone. The SPD is anyway tainted in this respect since the Moorburg/ Altenwerder development, the CDU as well, and the FDP is traditionally more concerned with port noise from the south bank reaching
the posh north bank... Well, and the Greens still have to re-establish credibility after sacrificing their resistance in order to enter the coalition with the CDU a decade ago. That leaves many voters only with Linke, Pirates or DIE PARTEI.
-----

If you are looking for socio-economic details, these sources are better than the map in your link, as they go down to city district level:
Online mapping:http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/download/Stadtteil_Profile_2014/atlas.html
Database with time series:http://www.statistik-nord.de/fileadmin/regional/regional.php

[solarstorm]

SPD



red1: 53.4%
red2: >50%
red3: >45.7%
red4: <45.7%
red5: 37.2%

[solarstorm]

CDU



gray1: 22.5%
gray2: >15.9%
gray3: <15.9%
gray4: 8.6%

[solarstorm]

Greens



green1: 21.9%
green2: >12.3%
green3: <12.3%
green4: 6.9%

[solarstorm]

Left



violet1: 17.7%
violet2: >8.51%
violet3: >8.51%
violet4: 4.2%

[solarstorm]

FDP



yellow1: 12,5%
yellow2: >7.4%
yellow3: <7.4%
yellow4: 4.2%

[solarstorm]

AfD



blue1: 8.742%
blue2: >6.1%
blue3: <6.1%
blue4: 3.0%

[solarstorm]

Pirates



orange1: 2.7%
orange2: >1.6%
orange3: <1.6%
orange4: 0.7%

[solarstorm]

NPD



brown1: 0.60%
brown2: >0.32%
brown3: <0.32%
brown4: 0.04%

[Franknburger]

In addition to my previous post, here the results from some precincts in the Reiherstieg area of Wilhelmsburg - the Dockville festival area, west (not east, as I wrote in my previous post) of Kleiner Grasbrook:

13704:
Linke     35.7 (+16) (this is probably their by far best precinct)
SPD       24.1 (- 7.7)
Grüne    20.4 (+1.8 )
Piraten    5.1 (- 7.2)
PARTEI    5.1 (- 1.1)
CDU        3.9 (- 4.1)
AFD        1.8
FDP        1.6 (+0.1)


13706:
Linke    29.1 (+ 7.0)
SPD      28.6 (- 7.0)
Grüne   19.4 (+ 6.2)
CDU       5.3 (- 4.5)
PARTEI   5.0 (-0.1)
Piraten   5.0  (-5.4)
AFD       3.8
FDP       2.5  (+1.0)

Not the nicest of all areas, but still affordable, urban, with your friendly Turkish grocery and Portuguese restaurant around the corner, and a developing club scene. Some 5km by bike to St. Pauli, through the port area and the old Elbe tunnel (pedestrians & bikes only). During the day, a port ferry takes you across the Elbe to St. Pauli in 15 minutes, if you want to visit the University in Hamburg-specific style. [When the Greens are clever, they will arrange for some night ferries on weekends in the up-coming coalition talks with the SPD].