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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655436 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #625 on: January 14, 2015, 02:36:01 PM »

2 Hamburg polls today (I'll just average them):

42.5 SPD
22.5 CDU
14.0 Greens
  7.5 Left
  5.5 AfD
  4.0 FDP
  4.0 Others

The FDP is somehow making a comeback ? Does anyone know why ?
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #626 on: January 15, 2015, 01:16:42 AM »

Probably the media attention in the last week (traditional "Dreikönigstreffen" FDP party meeting at the 6th January and the "ARD is filming Katja Suding's (the Hamburg FDP top candidate) legs).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #627 on: January 15, 2015, 12:38:12 PM »

Probably the media attention in the last week (traditional "Dreikönigstreffen" FDP party meeting at the 6th January and the "ARD is filming Katja Suding's (the Hamburg FDP top candidate) legs).

The ARD people have a feet-fetish ?

LOL.
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Beezer
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« Reply #628 on: January 16, 2015, 12:25:48 PM »

2 Hamburg polls today (I'll just average them):

42.5 SPD
22.5 CDU
14.0 Greens
  7.5 Left
  5.5 AfD
  4.0 FDP
  4.0 Others

The FDP is somehow making a comeback ? Does anyone know why ?

All down to the new logo. The Freie Demokraten are also at 4% in the latest Infratest dimap poll for the first time in half a year.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #629 on: January 18, 2015, 04:42:16 AM »

2 Hamburg polls today (I'll just average them):

42.5 SPD
22.5 CDU
14.0 Greens
  7.5 Left
  5.5 AfD
  4.0 FDP
  4.0 Others

The FDP is somehow making a comeback ? Does anyone know why ?

All down to the new logo. The Freie Demokraten are also at 4% in the latest Infratest dimap poll for the first time in half a year.

They have a new one ? OK, just checked and indeed:



Also, new federal Emnid poll today (also showing a FDP comeback):

42% CDU/CSU
24% SPD
  9% Greens
  9% Left
  7% AfD
  4% FDP
  5% Others
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #630 on: January 22, 2015, 06:14:28 AM »

It seems, that the "Pegida" movement ("Patriotic Europeans against the isliamisation of the occident" - yes, this is not made up by the Titanic or Postillon satire outfits), that has been dominating (poisoning) the news and political discourse in Germany for the last weeks is about to lose steam.

Since December several thousand people have been marching each Monday in Dresden under this banner, driven by fears of "islamisation", "foreign criminals",asylum seekers, "those damn politicians don't listen to us" etc. We all know the racist and antidemocratic standard phrases and the claim to represent the huge majority that is constituent of European right wing populism. Parts of CDU/CSU have been actually courting them ("One has to take the Ängste of the people serious"). They even have been given a forum in the rooms of the "state central for political education".
Civic society and engagement is weak in Eastern Saxony where the CDU (which is the most right wing of whole Germany) is dominating all branches of government and society, so protests against Pegida only attracted a few thousand people.

The export of the movement has not been very successful, where they mostly comprised of well known organized Nazis and Hooligans, while the Dresden head figures had been unknown to the public, before the movement started. Of course this also influenced their resprective agenda. While in Dresden the official statements have been more diffuse, demonstrations like Kögida (Colognians against...) or Legida "Leipzigers against..." have been much more vocal about their righteous Nazi agenda. And the protests against the Pegida offspring outnumbered them by far.
On the other hand the Dresden organizers try to distance from them to some extent and their also seem to be some pending lawsuits between Dresden and some other gidas.
So their seems to be a real East Saxonian moment in this protests, that underlines the often made points that the lack of a plural and vibrant civic society is fostering right wing populism.

This week now has seen several new developments - that also once more show the pure competence of the Dresden police department. One asylum seeker from Eritrea has been killed last Monday under obscure circumstances - and the first statement the police gave was, that they could absolutely rule out unlawful killing. After 30 hours they suddenly discovered knife stiches all over his body (that had been found bleeding before) and only after that the securing of traces began.

Also on monday they banned ALL demonstrations in Dresden, because of obscure alleged islamist terror threats against the Pegida Führer ... ähm... organisator Lutz Bachmann, as if there wasn't a civil right to demonstrate (or measures of personal security). This pumped up yesterday's Legida demonstration in Leipzig as a substitution for the hard core, that attracted around 6.000-8.000 (which is a tenth of what the organisers had claimed before), but also drew a vital and heavy anti-protest. (Leipzig obviously isn't Dresden, in many respects).
While Pegida leader Bachmann had been trying to distance himself from the more right-wing and violent Leipzig movement he had been supporting them now. And then the pictures and facebook comments went in that see him who claims not to be very right wing posing as the real Führer (with moustache and all) and calling refugees vermin and other very nice things, so he had to resign yesterday (but there others from the organisation circle, that have also come more to the public so Bachmann will probably not be missed (although his persona as an ex-criminal unemployed webdesigner that once fled to South Africa to evade prison has always been very funny concerning his stance against "mooching foreign criminals"). The other funny thing is, that the AfD announced Bachmann's resignation two hours before himself, which on the one hand highlights the connections between both and on the other hand don't know how to gostwrite a PM with the right letterhead is probably  the competence moment of the day.

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swl
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« Reply #631 on: January 22, 2015, 07:24:25 AM »

The good thing for Merkel and others is that if AfD anti-euro message is eventually blurred by the anti-Islam borderline-racist message, it will be easy for everyone else to just dismiss them even if they reach 15%.
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SNJ1985
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« Reply #632 on: January 23, 2015, 09:35:37 PM »

One asylum seeker from Eritrea has been killed last Monday under obscure circumstances - and the first statement the police gave was, that they could absolutely rule out unlawful killing. After 30 hours they suddenly discovered knife stiches all over his body (that had been found bleeding before) and only after that the securing of traces began.

As it turns out, he was killed by a fellow Eritrean over a financial dispute. The killing had nothing to do with PEGIDA.

http://www.dw.de/arrest-made-over-the-death-of-dresden-asylum-seeker/a-18209972
http://eastafro.com/Post/2015/01/22/26-year-old-eritrean-arrested-over-khaled-idris-bahrays-germany-killing/

Leftists wrongly assumed that it somehow must have been PEGIDA's fault, and then tried to use it against them.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #633 on: January 24, 2015, 07:25:49 AM »

One asylum seeker from Eritrea has been killed last Monday under obscure circumstances - and the first statement the police gave was, that they could absolutely rule out unlawful killing. After 30 hours they suddenly discovered knife stiches all over his body (that had been found bleeding before) and only after that the securing of traces began.

As it turns out, he was killed by a fellow Eritrean over a financial dispute. The killing had nothing to do with PEGIDA.

http://www.dw.de/arrest-made-over-the-death-of-dresden-asylum-seeker/a-18209972
http://eastafro.com/Post/2015/01/22/26-year-old-eritrean-arrested-over-khaled-idris-bahrays-germany-killing/

Leftists wrongly assumed that it somehow must have been PEGIDA's fault, and then tried to use it against them.

While Eastern Germany historically had a problem with Neo-Nazis killing asylum seekers, asylum seekers are in fact most likely to be killed by other asylum seekers and not Far-Right wingers.

At least here, there have been numerous cases in which some Afghan asylum seeker killed some Iraqi, Chechens killing each other off because the one fu**ed his sister and is therefore going nuts because of "family honour", etc. etc.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #634 on: January 29, 2015, 01:17:47 PM »

New Hamburg poll (Infratest dimap for NDR):

44% SPD
20% CDU
13% Greens
  9% Left
  6% AfD
  5% FDP
  3% Others

SPD loses absolute majority. AfD in, FDP back in too (after polling on a low level before).

http://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/hamburg/Zweiter-HamburgTREND-im-Januar-2015,hhwahlumfrage104.html
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Beezer
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« Reply #635 on: January 30, 2015, 01:20:11 PM »

Interesting poll on where Germans place the parties on an ideological line. It illustrates the leftward move of the CDU/CSU which has exposed the party's right flank and has in turn offered a vast tract for the AfD to harvest:



Detailed picture from the most recent poll:



Lower line indicates where "AfD-supports see themselves" / "their party" and where the general public places the AfD on the left to right continuum:

If you speak Deutsch check out:

http://www.infratest-dimap.de/uploads/media/LinksRechts2014_AfD.pdf
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Nortexius
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« Reply #636 on: January 30, 2015, 01:42:39 PM »

New Hamburg poll (Infratest dimap for NDR):

44% SPD
20% CDU
13% Greens
  9% Left
  6% AfD
 5% FDP
  3% Others

SPD loses absolute majority. AfD in, FDP back in too (after polling on a low level before).


Is there any indications that the AFD is underpolling in german polls? I checked the polls before the state elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg and they all seemed to underpoll the AFD compared to the final results. It's not unheard of that parties that are critical of immigration, EU and political correctness tend to be underestimated in polls. I know in Sweden the Sweden Democrats were vastly underpolled compared to the final result in the elections last September.
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swl
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« Reply #637 on: January 30, 2015, 02:58:09 PM »

Nice. My own (from content analysis of manifestos):

There is not much difference between positions based on the content of manifestos and the perception by the general public, except the gap between left-wing and right-wing parties that seems to be larger.
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SNJ1985
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« Reply #638 on: January 30, 2015, 08:52:52 PM »

New Hamburg poll (Infratest dimap for NDR):

44% SPD
20% CDU
13% Greens
  9% Left
  6% AfD
 5% FDP
  3% Others

SPD loses absolute majority. AfD in, FDP back in too (after polling on a low level before).


Is there any indications that the AFD is underpolling in german polls?

It's possible. They outperformed all of their poll results in the 2013 federal election; or at least all of the ones shown here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_German_federal_election,_2013#Party_polling
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #639 on: February 01, 2015, 04:22:33 AM »

My results from the Hamburg "Wahl-o-mat":

78.6% New Liberals
75.5% Party for Retired People
74.5% ÖDP
66.3% Pirates
66.3% Left
64.3% Greens
63.3% HHBL
62.2% SPD
62.2% The Party
56.1% CDU
52.0% FDP
49.0% AfD
35.7% NPD

https://www.wahl-o-mat.de/hamburg2015
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windjammer
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« Reply #640 on: February 01, 2015, 08:17:26 AM »

Nice. My own (from content analysis of manifestos):

There is not much difference between positions based on the content of manifestos and the perception by the general public, except the gap between left-wing and right-wing parties that seems to be larger.

Where would be the NPD? Extremely to the right socially but economically? I read their platform once on internet and that was "protecting the german poors blabla".
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #641 on: February 04, 2015, 07:40:14 AM »

Where would be the NPD? Extremely to the right socially but economically? I read their platform once on internet and that was "protecting the german poors blabla".

Their stance of not giving any welfare, healthcare etc. to immigrants is pretty right-wing again though. So just like with the original Nazis, the NPD's "left-wingness" depends on whether you can prove yourself a true and proper Aryan.
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sirius3100
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« Reply #642 on: February 04, 2015, 11:20:35 AM »

My Wahl-O-Mat Hamburg results:

76.0%  SPD
72.9%  Piraten
72.9%  Rentner
71.9%  Liberale
70.8%  Die Linke
69.8%  ÖDP
66.7%  Grüne
66.7%  FDP
65.6%  Die Partei
61.5%  CDU
57.3%  HHBL
47.9%  AfD
33.3%  NPD
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SNJ1985
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« Reply #643 on: February 04, 2015, 10:40:21 PM »

My results from the Hamburg "Wahl-o-mat":

78.6% New Liberals
75.5% Party for Retired People
74.5% ÖDP
66.3% Pirates
66.3% Left
64.3% Greens
63.3% HHBL
62.2% SPD
62.2% The Party
56.1% CDU
52.0% FDP
49.0% AfD
35.7% NPD

https://www.wahl-o-mat.de/hamburg2015

My results:

AfD: 67,1%
CDU: 65,8%
NPD: 65,8%
FDP: 63,2%
HHBL: 60,5%
SPD: 47,4%
GRÜNE: 42,1%
DIE LINKE: 26,3%

I did answer with ''Neutral'' to a fair number of the questions.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #644 on: February 05, 2015, 04:20:00 AM »

piraten77,8 %
die linke76,7 %
die partei75,6 %
die grünen67,8 %
spd66,7 %
rentner64,4 %
neue liberale63,3 %
ödp63,3 %
cdu61,1 %
hhbl54,4 %
fdp52,2 %
afd33,3 %
npd31,1 %
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #645 on: February 07, 2015, 12:50:59 PM »

The SPD is reportedly trying to hire Obama's former campaign manager and Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina as an advisor for the 2017 election in Germany.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/spd-will-chef-wahlkaempfer-von-barack-obama-holen-a-1017178.html
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change08
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« Reply #646 on: February 07, 2015, 01:50:27 PM »

The SPD is reportedly trying to hire Obama's former campaign manager and Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina as an advisor for the 2017 election in Germany.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/spd-will-chef-wahlkaempfer-von-barack-obama-holen-a-1017178.html

He gets about doesn't he. Works for the Tories as well.
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windjammer
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« Reply #647 on: February 08, 2015, 03:06:53 PM »

The SPD is reportedly trying to hire Obama's former campaign manager and Deputy Chief of Staff Jim Messina as an advisor for the 2017 election in Germany.

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/spd-will-chef-wahlkaempfer-von-barack-obama-holen-a-1017178.html
Well, the biggest problem for them is that Merkel is literally a political killer.
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SNJ1985
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« Reply #648 on: February 08, 2015, 03:07:27 PM »

Another Hamburg poll.

http://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/hamburg/wahl/Umfrage-SPD-baut-Vorsprung-weiter-aus,umfrage720.html

SPD: 46%
CDU: 18%
Die Grünen: 11%
Die Linke: 9%
AfD: 5,5%
FDP: 5,5%
Others: 5%
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CrabCake
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« Reply #649 on: February 08, 2015, 03:22:56 PM »

So have the FDP in Hamburg found a four leaved clover or something?
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