German Elections & Politics
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 04:29:52 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  German Elections & Politics
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 176
Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655264 times)
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: October 15, 2013, 02:49:09 PM »

In Frankfurt there has been in the past a general tendency for the Greens to underperform in postal votes in strong Green years, especially if they weren't strong SPD years as well, and to overperform in weak Green years that has nothing (or at least little) to do with late swings and everything to do with core Green voters being a somewhat postal-voting-affine group and more 'red-green' voters being more like 'pure' SPD voters in that respect (but more like core Green voters in many others, notably policies supported.) It's all about class, of course. Isn't everything? Smiley
Logged
palandio
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,025


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: October 15, 2013, 03:32:03 PM »
« Edited: October 15, 2013, 03:37:43 PM by palandio »

@ Minion of Midas: Probably there are similar patterns in Munich. And yes, much is about class.
I'm posting now a map of turnout in Munich precincts. The precinct map is based on a 2009 map from Munich's statistical office. The coloring is my own. I hope I don't violate any copyright?


I would like to do either an SPD+Greens+Linke+MLPD map or an CSU+FDP map of Munich. Any preferences?
Logged
RogueBeaver
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,058
Canada
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: October 15, 2013, 04:44:40 PM »

Greens withdrawing from CDU coalition talks.
Logged
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,822
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: October 17, 2013, 01:58:32 AM »

http://bundeswolfpack.tumblr.com/

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: October 18, 2013, 04:59:46 AM »

2014 elections in Germany:

* EU Parliament (May)
* Brandenburg state election (summer/fall) - strong CDU gains likely
* Sachsen state election (summer/fall) - good chance of a CDU absolute majority
* Thüringen state election (summer/fall) - outside chance of a CDU absolute majority
Logged
ERvND
Rookie
**
Posts: 143
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: October 18, 2013, 03:17:36 PM »

Also:

Local elections in Bavaria (March), Baden-Württemberg, Brandenburg, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia (May)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: October 19, 2013, 07:06:41 AM »

Also:

Local elections in Bavaria (March), Baden-Württemberg, Brandenburg, Hamburg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Rhineland-Palatinate, Saarland, Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia (May)

Meh ... nobody really cares about those ... Wink
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: October 19, 2013, 07:30:23 AM »

What's a local election in Hamburg? Have they decoupled city and borough elections or what? (checks) Seems to be the case.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,959
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: October 19, 2013, 08:10:02 AM »

As you may imagine, I followed these elections with great interest. Smiley So glad to see the FDP gone. Cheesy And hopefully now that Merkel's future is assured for the next 4 years, hopefully she will be a bit more pragmatic in her approach to the EU.

So where are coalition talks going at this point? Are minimum wage and gay marriage all but assured at this point?
Logged
Hifly
hifly15
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,937


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: October 19, 2013, 08:24:14 AM »

I'm thrilled at the prospect that a Grand Coalition will be so damaging to the SPD that it will, yet again, be in an unrecoverable state by the next election.
Logged
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,254
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: October 19, 2013, 09:02:28 AM »

As you may imagine, I followed these elections with great interest. Smiley So glad to see the FDP gone. Cheesy And hopefully now that Merkel's future is assured for the next 4 years, hopefully she will be a bit more pragmatic in her approach to the EU.

So where are coalition talks going at this point? Are minimum wage and gay marriage all but assured at this point?

Black-green is done with unless the talks for a grand coalition fail. A minimum wage does seem like a done deal and the model most seem to talk about would include a non-political commission that would periodically increase the rate to keep up with cost of living.

I've not heard anyone seriously discuss gay marriage yet.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: October 19, 2013, 09:07:34 AM »

Full equality of gay civil unions with marriage is going to be achieved by the end of this parliament, no matter what government we get or even if black-yellow had been reelected. We're pretty far already.

Gay marriage is a nonstarter thanks to the way things have happened the way they have.
Logged
Hifly
hifly15
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,937


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: October 19, 2013, 09:39:43 AM »

I hope Merkel stands firm against Gay Marriage. However, it can certainly pass the new parliament. I don't think there are socially conservative lefties in the Bundestag and many CDU representatives support it.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: October 19, 2013, 09:51:02 AM »

German lawmaking doesn't work that way (except rarely, on occasion).
Logged
Hifly
hifly15
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,937


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: October 19, 2013, 10:02:58 AM »

Well, it can.
Logged
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,254
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: October 19, 2013, 10:30:43 AM »

I hope Merkel stands firm against Gay Marriage. However, it can certainly pass the new parliament. I don't think there are socially conservative lefties in the Bundestag and many CDU representatives support it.

I seriously doubt Merkel cares about gay marriage either way.

German lawmaking doesn't work that way (except rarely, on occasion).

Yes, like the abolition of tuition fees in Hessen. (Although I guess there wasn't technically a new government in place.)
Logged
DL
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,405
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: October 19, 2013, 04:11:32 PM »

I'm thrilled at the prospect that a Grand Coalition will be so damaging to the SPD that it will, yet again, be in an unrecoverable state by the next election.

It doesn't always work that...the SPD was junior partner in a grand coalition with the CDU 1966-69 and then took the chancellorship from 1969 to 1983!
Logged
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,254
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: October 22, 2013, 07:26:46 AM »

INSA poll from yesterday:

CDU/CSU: 43%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 10%
Linke: 8.5%

AfD: 4%
FDP: 3.5%
Logged
FredLindq
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 447
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: October 22, 2013, 04:15:46 PM »

Since there is a 3 % hurdle in the EP election both FDP and AFD Will have seats there. Amy news which group AFD Will join? ECR or EFD?!
Logged
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,254
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: October 24, 2013, 06:01:15 AM »

The NSA scandal has struck again.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-24651975

Disgusting, but unsurprising.
Logged
Franzl
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,254
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: October 24, 2013, 06:02:30 AM »

New federal Allensbach poll:

CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 25%
Grüne: 9%
Linke: 9%
AfD: 5.5%
FDP: 5%
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: October 24, 2013, 06:06:55 AM »

FDP at five? Srsly?
Logged
Middle-aged Europe
Old Europe
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,178
Ukraine


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: October 24, 2013, 06:11:26 AM »

Two days before the election, Allensbach had the FDP at 5.5%.

In fact, the last time they had the FDP below 5% was last December.

They're apparently very persistent in ignoring reality.
Logged
sirius3100
Rookie
**
Posts: 37
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -4.71, S: -4.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: October 24, 2013, 09:13:35 AM »

Since there is a 3 % hurdle in the EP election both FDP and AFD Will have seats there. Amy news which group AFD Will join? ECR or EFD?!
1. I expect the AFD to do way better at the EU election next year with them being one of the few options eurosceptic voters have. It wouldn't surprise me if they get a result in the double digits.
2. It isn't clear if there really will be a 3% treshold. In my opinion it is likely that the constitutional court will rule against that treshold.

I haven't read any news regarding your real question.
Logged
minionofmidas
Lewis Trondheim
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,207
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: October 24, 2013, 09:27:51 AM »

Since there is a 3 % hurdle in the EP election both FDP and AFD Will have seats there. Amy news which group AFD Will join? ECR or EFD?!
1. I expect the AFD to do way better at the EU election next year with them being one of the few options eurosceptic voters have. It wouldn't surprise me if they get a result in the double digits.
While it's impossible to predict and your outcome is well within the result of possibility... in Germany, unlike some other countries, the Euro electorate has always tended to be more 'pro-European' than the population at large, not less.
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
This is both correct. (I actually searched for clues on the latter question, but I don't really expect any kind of answers until just before the election, possibly even not until right after. I doubt it's high on the party leadership's to-do list right now.)
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 176  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.042 seconds with 11 queries.