German Elections & Politics

[rob in cal]

   I think the Polish birth rate did start going up more toward the end of last year. The 500+ plan only came into effect last spring, I believe.  I thought it was interesting because of the juxtaposition of the law with the overall migrant issue, much of which was tied up with the argument that all these young dynamic vibrant immigrants would help reverse the demographic decline of Europe.

[rob in cal]

  Has there been any talk about a CDU/CSU FDP minority coalition government or is it the default expectation that any new government would have to have a Bundestag majority?

[rob in cal]

   Some fun with numbers.  Will smaller four parties equal CDU/CSU vote? I think yes.  Will FDP and AFD combined equal SPD. I think yes.  Will AFD equal 55% of SPD vote? How close will Green and Linke combined come to SPD vote? And will Red Red Green hit 40%?

[rob in cal]

  Are there elements in the CSU that would support a Bavaria level coalition between it and the AFD? Maybe especially if the OVP FPO coalition in Austria is working out ok without the sky falling?

[rob in cal]

  Wow, Saxony this year could really provide some historical results.  Would love to see one of the big two parties (or formerly big) miss the 5% threshold.

[rob in cal]

  That INSA poll is really interesting. It seems to show that many CDU, and FDP voters and some SPD voters (or are they just voting more to the left in this scenario?) would switch, but not many AFD voters. I would have thought that big chunks of the non-Bavarian AFD voters would be attracted to a national CSU.

[rob in cal]

  I love what if political polls.  I remember Survey USA still released the partially completed poll they were working on in 2008 of the upcoming Virginia GOP primary which looked like a showdown between Mccain and Romney, which they stopped once Romney withdrew. They had Mccain with a modest lead IIRC.

[rob in cal]

  In the confused aftermath of WW1, in addition to Rhineland secessionists backed by France weren't there also Bavarian secessionists who wanted a Wittelsbach dynasty restoration?  A certain Munich based rabble rouser, one Adolf Hitler, was vehemently against all such German secessionists.

[rob in cal]

  That Saxony poll gets my fantasy of the SPD failing to clear the threshold up and running.

[rob in cal]

  In the last years of Weimar, the NazBol negative majority started happening in Landtags as well, with the Prussian landtag elected in 1932 the classic example.  The SPD Minister President Otto Braun stayed on as caretaker after the elections, and the fact that it was a caretaker administration gave Chancellor Papen an excuse to oust that regime.

[rob in cal]

  Assuming the Freie Wahler vote hold up in Bavaria, what kind of coalition partner would they be for the CSU? 

[rob in cal]

 Also a CSU AFD majority is within striking distance, making a everybody but CSU AFD coalition that much tougher.

[rob in cal]

  Some fun stats to watch, 1) does FW do better than the SPD, and 2) does AFD beat the combinations of SPD and Linke and SPD and FDP. Also do Greens beat SPD, Linke and FDP combined.

[rob in cal]

  Also, will soft Linke voters gravitate toward the Greens or SPD out of fear of their party votes being wasted due to the 5% threshold?

[rob in cal]

  If the SPD does as badly as predicted, this could perhaps mean more declines in the future, as more and more left leaning voters go toward the Greens, especially if the migrant/national identity debates are big electoral issues. A sort of reverse bandwagon effect.

[rob in cal]

election.de suggests that AFD will have its best districts in Lower Bavaria, SPD strongest ones  in Upper Franconia. Any reason for this?

[rob in cal]

   The vote breakdown by blue collar status was fascinating, showing the ongoing demise of support for left wing parties by their former (way back in the 19th and 20th centuries) working class backers. Do we have a vote breakdown by just income for Bavaria?

[rob in cal]

Question for Hades, you mentioned some parts of German cities where due to Turk/Arab situation police don't have a presence, and school system is bad to be a non-Moslem.  What would be the prime example of such places?

[rob in cal]

   So how much would the quorum for initiatives be lowered to?

[rob in cal]

  So RRG is right on the edge for a landtag majority.

[rob in cal]

   If Spahn or Merz had been chancellor in 2015 would they have reacted differently to the migrant crisis than Merkel?