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Author Topic: German Elections & Politics  (Read 655416 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #50 on: August 31, 2014, 06:38:58 AM »

12:00 turnout in Saxony still lagging behind 2009:

14.9% vs. 19.4% in 2009
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #51 on: August 31, 2014, 07:39:12 AM »

2pm turnout in Saxony:

2014: 23.1%
2009: 27.6%

Looks like ca. 45-48% in the end.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #52 on: August 31, 2014, 11:01:48 AM »

1st projection (ARD):

39.0% CDU
19.0% Left
12.5% SPD
10.0% AfD
  6.0% Greens
  5.0% NPD
  3.5% FDP
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #53 on: August 31, 2014, 11:03:58 AM »

1st ZDF projection:

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #54 on: August 31, 2014, 11:09:25 AM »

Looks like AfD, as expected, took some of the NPD vote.

Yeah, if the NPD ends up with 4.99% I wouldn't really mind the AfD in the state parliament.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #55 on: August 31, 2014, 11:13:49 AM »

I already thought that the AfD would outperform their pre-election polls, but 10% is certainly impressive (pre-election polls: 6-7%) and considering it's just the 1st projection there's still some room for 11% ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #56 on: August 31, 2014, 11:18:18 AM »

1st ARD-Hochrechnung:



AfD gained mostly former CDU, FDP, Left and NPD voters.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #57 on: August 31, 2014, 11:20:07 AM »

1st ZDF-Hochrechnung:

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #58 on: August 31, 2014, 11:28:21 AM »

Both ARD and ZDF project turnout at 48.5% (-4%).

It would be the worst turnout in the history of Saxony and the 2nd lowest in German state elections ever.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #59 on: August 31, 2014, 11:39:41 AM »

Actual results with clickable district maps:

http://www.mdr.de/sachsen/wahlen-politik/landtagswahl/wahldaten100.html

Click on "Wahlkreise" for district results.

"Erststimme" means FPTP-district vote.

"Zweitstimme" means PR/list vote.

Results should start to come in in the next hour, with a final result at ca. 11pm.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #60 on: August 31, 2014, 11:47:44 AM »

Men voted:



Women voted:



AfD by age:



NPD by age:

Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #61 on: August 31, 2014, 12:20:45 PM »

The latest ZDF-Hochrechnung has the NPD at 4.9%, which would mean they would be out of the parliament.

But the ARD-one still has them at 5.0%, so ... let's wait.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #62 on: August 31, 2014, 12:37:42 PM »

Saxony's Governor Tillich (CDU) is still not 100% ruling out a coalition with the AfD, despite Merkel basically "forbidding" it.

Maybe he just wants to get the biggest bang for the buck in the coalition talks: By not ruling out a AfD coalition, he could put increasing pressure on an already small SPD and put a strong conservative stamp on a Grand Coalition.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #63 on: August 31, 2014, 12:45:55 PM »

CDU nearing 40% in the latest ZDF-projection (39.9%), while the NPD is back up to 5.0% and the AfD at 10%.

SPD slips further back towards 12% (12.2)

Looks like the final results will show if the NPD is in or out.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #64 on: August 31, 2014, 12:55:52 PM »

The actual count can be viewed here:

http://www.statistik.sachsen.de/wpr_neu/pkg_s10_gew.prc_ueb_aw?p_bzid=LW14

More than half of all cities are now counted. No district fully in yet though.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #65 on: August 31, 2014, 01:04:49 PM »

Actual statewide count:

272/446 cities

10.6% AfD
  5.6% NPD

Of course, mostly rural areas are in so far.

NPD only gets 3% in Dresden and Leipzig, while the AfD only has 7-8% there.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #66 on: August 31, 2014, 01:12:33 PM »

I wonder where Lewis is right now ... Tongue

And Franzl ...

Too bad they are not here posting.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #67 on: August 31, 2014, 01:16:14 PM »

The first 2 districts are now fully counted.

Sächsische Schweiz-Osterzgebirge 3

11.0% AfD
  8.7% NPD

Erzgebirge 4

11.2% AfD
  5.8% NPD
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #68 on: August 31, 2014, 01:41:58 PM »

Does anyone know what's wrong with Bautzen 5 ?

15% AfD
11% NPD

100% counted.

That's up from 7% NPD and 0% AfD in 2009.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #69 on: August 31, 2014, 01:55:13 PM »

Does anyone know what's wrong with Bautzen 5 ?

15% AfD
11% NPD

100% counted.

That's up from 7% NPD and 0% AfD in 2009.

The rise of 700 votes in the city of Bautzen of about 38.000 inhabitants maybe comes from the mobilisation against an Asylbewerberheim there. That's the only local factor I could think of, because this is a result and difference towards 2009 without parallel. AfD is regularly stronger in East Saxony, because of the near border associated by it and maybe even the dumb people's fear of the wolf.

Ah yeah, thx.

Hate against asylum seekers is a well-known motivation for NPD/AfD-voters (more so for the NPD of course, but the AfD recently jumped on the anti-asylum train as well).

Previously, I only knew Bautzen because of the popular band Silbermond.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #70 on: August 31, 2014, 02:07:30 PM »

Bautzen actually is a beautiful town, so for me such results really come out of nothing. I was born there and lived there for the first five years of my life. So, such results really hurt.

I know, these results are a shame for this city:



But don't worry: Headlines like these ("Asylum seekers live in 4-star hotel") would probably yield a 40% FPÖ-result in an Austrian town, so you are "well-off" with the 26% for AfD/NPD in Bautzen ...

Wink

http://www.sz-online.de/sachsen/bautzen-bringt-asylbewerber-in-vier-sterne-hotel-unter-2848699.html
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #71 on: September 01, 2014, 01:10:46 AM »

Good to see that the Nazis are finally kicked out of the state parliament again (4.95%)

Smiley

Also: CDU wins all but 1 FPTP districts (only Leipzig-2 was won by the Left Party candidate) and all PR/list districts.

The "Spiegel" has a clickable map with party strength by district (2014/2009):

http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/landtagswahl-in-sachsen-alle-ergebnisse-a-986694.html#startTab=1

Erststimme = FPTP district winner
Zweitstimme = PR/list district winner
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #72 on: September 01, 2014, 02:01:16 AM »

The NPD might as well cry for a recount, but because a recount can only be requested in precincts with obvious counting errors and not statewide (nor because of a really close result), their request will go nowhere ...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #73 on: September 04, 2014, 05:34:05 AM »

Meanwhile we have 2 new polls for the Sept. 14 state elections:

Brandenburg (FGW for ZDF)

33% SPD (no change compared with 2009)
25% CDU (+5)
21% Left (-6)
  8% AfD (+8)
  6% Greens (no change)
  7% Others (incl. the FDP) (-7)

The FDP got 7.2% in 2009.

Thüringen (FGW for ZDF)

36% CDU (+5)
26% Left (-1)
16% SPD (-3)
  8% AfD (+8)
  6% Greens (no change)
  8% Others (incl. the FDP) (-9)

The FDP got 7.6% in 2009.

...

Compared with previous polls, the 8% for the AfD is up from 5-6% and the highest level yet.

Looks like they are getting ca. 10% as well in these elections.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #74 on: September 08, 2014, 07:18:47 AM »

Brandenburg (Infratest dimap for ARD)

31% SPD (-2 compared with 2009)
24% CDU (+4)
22% Left (-5)
  9% AfD (+9)
  6% Greens (nc)
  2% FDP (-5)
  6% Others (-1)

Thüringen (Infratest dimap for ARD)

34% CDU (+3)
28% Left (+1)
16% SPD (-3)
  7% AfD (+7)
  5% Greens (-1)
  4% NPD (nc)
  3% FDP (-5)
  3% Others (-2)
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