German Elections & Politics

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

If Wagenknecht were to leave would she try and start her own party?

Frauke Petry founded her own party: Die Blauen, which might enter the Saxon parliament next fall.
I suggest if Wagenknecht creates a new one, too, she call it "Die Roten" - and she would be likely to to fill a niche in the market; we don't have a Democratic party that is both socialist and pro-German.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

If Wagenknecht were to leave would she try and start her own party?

Frauke Petry founded her own party: Die Blauen, which might enter the Saxon parliament next fall.
I suggest if Wagenknecht creates a new one, too, she call it "Die Roten" - and she would be likely to to fill a niche in the market; we don't have a Democratic party that is both socialist and pro-German.

Ignoring its subsequent collapse, the success of Pilz List suggests that there is a market for such a party.

[parochial boy]

If Wagenknecht were to leave would she try and start her own party?

Frauke Petry founded her own party: Die Blauen, which might enter the Saxon parliament next fall.
I suggest if Wagenknecht creates a new one, too, she call it "Die Roten" - and she would be likely to to fill a niche in the market; we don't have a Democratic party that is both socialist and pro-German.

Ignoring its subsequent collapse, the success of Pilz List suggests that there is a market for such a party.

But that was partly helped by the self-immolation of the Greens, which is not really where the Left are at the moment. Tbh, they seem to be blowing a pretty good opportunity to take advantage of the current climate. Which isn't exactly surprising, I guess.

[palandio]

The Left is not immolating itself, but it has made clear on which side it wants to gain and on which side it is ready to lose. It's a logical decision, too, because you cannot go against the majority of your own party functionaries. But it leaves a void in the political landscape.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Meanwhile, the AfD is about to draw level with the former big-tent party sPD:

[Beezer]

Battle of the wills between Merkel and Seehofer. Who will blink first?

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[Arkansas Yankee]

I would love to see Merkel disappear from the scene. 

[TheSaint250]

First poll in awhile that has CDU/CSU under 30%:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1008742013938921472

It seems the SPD is benefitting from this chaos.

[TheSaint250]

So will AfD ever nominate/get through a Vice President in the Bundestag?

[TheSaint250]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1009061305318297600

This certainly shows how there is a significant portion of the voting population (~7%) voting for other parties (in this case, AfD and FDP) in protest of Merkel but could rally around a more conservative option, whether it is a separate CSU or the Union being led by a different leader.

[rob in cal]

  That INSA poll is really interesting. It seems to show that many CDU, and FDP voters and some SPD voters (or are they just voting more to the left in this scenario?) would switch, but not many AFD voters. I would have thought that big chunks of the non-Bavarian AFD voters would be attracted to a national CSU.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

That INSA poll is really interesting. It seems to show that many CDU, and FDP voters and some SPD voters (or are they just voting more to the left in this scenario?) would switch, but not many AFD voters. I would have thought that big chunks of the non-Bavarian AFD voters would be attracted to a national CSU.

Well, that would be 5% shift, which is impressive.

Some time ago there was a poll about if the voters would approve of a nationwide CSU. All AfD voters favored that idea, but most of them would still not vote for the CSU, since a vote for that party would still be a vote for the CDU.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I take my hat off to INSA: they've outdone themselves this time. Bravo.

[parochial boy]

Yeah, I mean, polling "what if" questions generally has close to zero resemblance to what would actually happen in the event of...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

This is what happens when atlas nerds get too much power.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is what happens when atlas nerds get too much power.

[rob in cal]

  I love what if political polls.  I remember Survey USA still released the partially completed poll they were working on in 2008 of the upcoming Virginia GOP primary which looked like a showdown between Mccain and Romney, which they stopped once Romney withdrew. They had Mccain with a modest lead IIRC.

[Former President tack50]

Also, apparently independence is polling at 32% in Bavaria. If that is actually even remotely true, Seehofer and Markus Söder should start pushing for independence, or at the very least Bavarian nationalism.

Seriously, for reference Basque secessionism regularly polls around 30% and even Catalan secessionists aren't much higher at 45-50%.

And yet the Bavarian secessionists poll at 2%! How is that possible?

Then again I guess what if polls are not even remotely accurate, as many German states seem to be at 15-20% for independence.

If that were true, Germany would be a failed state, a larger version of Belgium or at the very least should have like 3-4 nationalist parties represented.

https://www.thelocal.de/20170717/one-in-three-bavarians-want-independence-from-germany-poll-shows-bavaria

[rob in cal]

  In the confused aftermath of WW1, in addition to Rhineland secessionists backed by France weren't there also Bavarian secessionists who wanted a Wittelsbach dynasty restoration?  A certain Munich based rabble rouser, one Adolf Hitler, was vehemently against all such German secessionists.

[Famous Mortimer]

  That INSA poll is really interesting. It seems to show that many CDU, and FDP voters and some SPD voters (or are they just voting more to the left in this scenario?) would switch, but not many AFD voters. I would have thought that big chunks of the non-Bavarian AFD voters would be attracted to a national CSU.

Makes sense. Nation-wide CSU voters are people who don't like immigration but were too afraid to vote for the "Nazi" AfD. The CSU just has to worry about the media labeling them Nazis.

[Tender Branson]

A new Infratest dimap poll out of Hessen, which will have a state election in October:

31% CDU (-7)
22% SPD (-9)
15% AfD (+11)
14% Greens (+3)
  7% FDP (+2)
  7% Left (+2)
  4% Others (-2)

[TheSaint250]

I don't believe this was mentioned, but a poll for Saxony's election next year was released over a week ago.

These were the numbers (compared to 2014):

CDU: 32% (-7)
AfD: 24% (+14)
SPD: 9% (-3)
Linke: 19% (±0)
FDP: 6% (+2)
Grüne: 6% (±0)

Frauke Petry's The Blue Party was not polled.

[rob in cal]

  That Saxony poll gets my fantasy of the SPD failing to clear the threshold up and running.

[Former President tack50]

I don't believe this was mentioned, but a poll for Saxony's election next year was released over a week ago.

These were the numbers (compared to 2014):

CDU: 32% (-7)
AfD: 24% (+14)
SPD: 9% (-3)
Linke: 19% (±0)
FDP: 6% (+2)
Grüne: 6% (±0)
G
Frauke Petry's The Blue Party was not polled.

NazBol coalition, here we come!

You may laugh, but the end of the Weimar Republic came when there was a "negative majority" (ie commies+Hitler had a majority so no one could form a government without either of them).

If AfD+Linke gets a majority and a left wing SPD+Linke+Greens deal is also impossible (as seems likely) then government formation will be a sh**tshow at best and at worst won't happen and there will be a caretaker government forever.

Either that or CDU finally bites the bullet and does a deal with AfD. And honestly they should to that sooner rather than later, otherwise the chancellor (or regional president) might be from AfD instead of CDU.

[TheSaint250]

I don't believe this was mentioned, but a poll for Saxony's election next year was released over a week ago.

These were the numbers (compared to 2014):

CDU: 32% (-7)
AfD: 24% (+14)
SPD: 9% (-3)
Linke: 19% (±0)
FDP: 6% (+2)
Grüne: 6% (±0)
G
Frauke Petry's The Blue Party was not polled.

NazBol coalition, here we come!

You may laugh, but the end of the Weimar Republic came when there was a "negative majority" (ie commies+Hitler had a majority so no one could form a government without either of them).

If AfD+Linke gets a majority and a left wing SPD+Linke+Greens deal is also impossible (as seems likely) then government formation will be a sh**tshow at best and at worst won't happen and there will be a caretaker government forever.

Either that or CDU finally bites the bullet and does a deal with AfD. And honestly they should to that sooner rather than later, otherwise the chancellor (or regional president) might be from AfD instead of CDU.

Funny enough, if that INSA poll is to be believed, a CDU/CSU split might be the only way to prevent this