German Elections & Politics

[Middle-aged Europe]

[Middle-aged Europe]

The thing is... Sigmar Gabriel is probably as guilty as Friedrich that the info on the child porn investigation eventually reached Edathy. However, Sigmar Gabriel can't step down because such a step could threaten the stability of this government. Friedrich on the other hand is merely the minister of agriculture and merely from the CSU. Besides, he was regarded damaged goods anyway because of his moronic handling of the NSA affair last year. Unlike Gabriel, Friedrich was expendable.

This leaves a loose end though. Someone in the SPD informed Sebastian Edathy of the investigation against him. Ironically, it is Edathy himself who could identify this person. Which means that he possesses the ability to destroy another political career.

[Franknburger]

This leaves a loose end though. Someone in the SPD informed Sebastian Edathy of the investigation against him. Ironically, it is Edathy himself who could identify this person. Which means that he possesses the ability to destroy another political career.

First of all, Edathy definitely knew something would be coming up when removing his parliamentary immunity was requested. As such, the whole bickering of Hannover prosecutors lacks material substance - there never was the slightest chance for a surprise search.

Then, let's not forget that Edathy headed the NSU parliamentary investigation committee. There is hardly a better position to build up contacts towards all relevant law enforcement agencies. Edathy has obviously been a pain in the ass to some people, but there will be a number of others being grateful to his work, maybe even owing him a favour. I haven't counted how many heads have rolled due to the affair, but it should be quite a number...

Moreover, the heads of the Landeskriminalämter (state criminal offices) were also already in October informed about investigation on Edathy. This means that the Lower Saxony Minster of the Interior should as well have known.

So there are a number of ways how the info could have reached Edathy. Maybe even nobody had to tell him at all, he just needed to put 1 and 1 together. A Canada-based child porn ring that he frequented (for which reason ever) is uncovered, and he suddenly disappears from the list of potential office holders (probably first of all from the list of SPD members within the coalition negotiation work group on interior affairs). It's not too difficult to figure out what that could mean...

Friedrich on the other hand is merely the minister of agriculture and merely from the CSU. Besides, he was regarded damaged goods anyway because of his moronic handling of the NSA affair last year. Unlike Gabriel, Friedrich was expendable.

And, possibly, Merkel was just waiting for the opportunity to get rid of him. Ramsauer, who had f..ed up virtually everything a Minister of Transport can f..k up (Berlin-Brandenburg airport, Stuttgart 21, Fehmarnbelt-Tunnel, Kiel Canal closure..) was obviously first priority for disposal. Aigner, who wasn't brilliant either, decided to leave for herself. In that situation, additionally kicking out Friedrich could have risked even more conflict with Seehofer, So,  side-lining Friedrich from Interior to Agriculture might be the maximum she deemed achievable during the coalition talks. But when a golden opportunity arises, it shouldn't be left unused..

[Middle-aged Europe]

Sebastian Edathy is back and he gave SPIEGEL an interview. He denies having been tipped off by someone in the SPD, he denies having destroyed evidence after being tipped off, and he blasts the authorities for the way their investigation was conducted against him.

Despite being a possible pedophile, they'll probably never charge him with any crime. But it seems that he'll be busy giving interviews the coming weeks.

[Franzl]

I do hope for some more drama, though. Getting rid of Friedrich was nice.....now if we could talk about Gabriel next

[Middle-aged Europe]

Meanwhile, both CDU deputy chairman Armin Laschet and CSU Bundestag member Hans-Peter Uhl have demanded that the leaders of the SPD sign statements under oath that they didn't personally inform Edathy.

[Franknburger]

Meanwhile, both CDU deputy chairman Armin Laschet and CSU Bundestag member Hans-Peter Uhl have demanded that the leaders of the SPD sign statements under oath that they didn't personally inform Edathy.

Predictable, and fruitless. Of course SPD leaders informed Edathy that he won't play a role in coalition talks and afterwards. How they explained it to him - who knows? But that is a line of discussion that will quickly get nasty not only for the SPD leaders, but also for Merkel. She can't really say she didn't know about Friedrich doing background checks on senior SPD personnel, and should she concede to have been informed as well on Friedrich passing on such information, she is toast.

That, in turn, makes me wonder whom Laschel and Uhl are really targeting at, and how long Merkel (and Seeoofer) will allow such demands to continue.

[Famous Mortimer]

"His IP address has been recorded with a Canada-based child pornography ring. However - a politician with focus on crime prevention may also have professional reasons to check out such a site."

This is proof he is a pedo. You do not need to see pictures of little kids getting penetrated to know it's bad.

[Middle-aged Europe]

"His IP address has been recorded with a Canada-based child pornography ring. However - a politician with focus on crime prevention may also have professional reasons to check out such a site."

This is proof he is a pedo. You do not need to see pictures of little kids getting penetrated to know it's bad.

Well, policemen happen to look at child porn for the very same reason, so it wasn't that far-fetched an assumption.

However, the state of affairs seems to be that Edathy is in fact a pedophile, even though the authorities won't be able to prosecute him for anything.

[Franknburger]

According to the information retrieved by Canadian authorities during their investigation of the Canada-based ring, Edathy has between 2005 and 2010 received 31 photos. These photos display 7-13 years old naked boys, which are neither engaging in sexual activities nor are photographed  in any sexually explicit  manner. Such material is not illegal in Germany. From what I have read, the Canadian authorities have not been investigating the distribution of such photos, but of other, more explicit material that the ring started providing after 2010. The press here reports that Friedrich last October informed SPD leadership that Edathy was implied into the Canadian case, but that German authorities would not have any indication that he had actually done anything unlawful.

As such, there is no proof so far that Edathy has been committing any offence. Whether he has pedophile tendencies is up for speculation. There will probably be enough people in Germany supposing he has such tendencies to put his political career to an end.

[Beezer]

Wait a couple of years, then get elected to the EP. I'm sure Cohn-Bendit wouldn't mind having Edathy in his caucus.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Wait a couple of years, then get elected to the EP. I'm sure Cohn-Bendit wouldn't mind having Edathy in his caucus.

Cohn-Bendit is gonna retire after this May, duh.

I just read on stern.de that the SPD suspects Sebastian Edathy in Denmark, but they don't have any confirmation for this. Apparently, his interview with SPIEGEL was conducted via e-mail.

After Friedrich has stepped down the attention has now turned to SPD parliamentary group leader Thomas Oppermann who apparently would be "next in line" for a resignation in this affair.

And the authorities are considering to launch an investigation against unknown members of the Bundestag on the suspicion of obstruction of justice.

[Middle-aged Europe]

CSU general secretary Andreas Scheuer has demanded Thomas Oppermann's resignation. Oppermann was the one who had leaked Hans-Peter Friedrich's name to the press and now they want him gone.

If the CSU doesn't back off from that demand the SPD has two choices: Sacrificing Oppermann or risking early elections. The former might be considered the lesser evil, even though it would make look vice-chancellor Sigmar Gabriel weak. Yesterday or so, Gabriel had declared that nobody from the SPD will resign.

The alternative is that Merkel tries to talk the CSU out of it.

On Tuesday, there will be an meeting of the leaders of the governing parties and we'll know more after that, at the latest.

[Famous Mortimer]

Early national elections?

I think they may have overplayed their hand.

[Franknburger]

Actually, the SPD can just watch CSU politicians steaming and sit it out. Oppermann is their parliamentary whip - no government post, no CDU/CSU influence on that position. Asides, Oppermann claims that his press statement was pre-agreed with Friedrich, who received a draft of the statement one day before it was released.

Tuesday will become interesting, nevertheless. Afterwards we should have a clearer picture whether the SPD from the beginning intended to get rid of Friedrich, or Merkel used what she deemed to be a golden opportunity.

P.S: By my calculation, a CDU / SPD government without the CSU still would have a comfortable majority. Shouldn't take too long for the CSU to realise that fact. Oh, this is really fun!

[Middle-aged Europe]

Oppermann is their parliamentary whip - no government post, no CDU/CSU influence on that position.

If the CSU wants Oppermann gone and the alternative is risking an end to the coalition and the SPD doesn't want the coalition to end this effectively means that the CSU holds an influence over the position.

It's not a question of which position Oppermann currently holds, it's a question of who will blink first. If the CSU is just bluffing, everything's fine... if they're not then it's not.

And I don't think it's a realistic scenario that the CDU is wiling to end their historic union with the CSU over someone like Thomas Oppermann. The question is whether CSU and/or SPD are willing to end the coalition over someone like Oppermann.

That being said, I still think that either the CSU backing off or the SPD sacrificing Oppermann are far more likely than early elections.

[Franzl]

New elections would be fun, though

[palandio]

Merkel has declared her full confidence in Gabriel. Those who have been following German politics closely for the last few years probably know what the declaration of full confidence by Merkel means. :-p (Every minister with full confidence had to resign soon after.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, like the average football club owner.

[Tender Branson]

Last year it was the Greens, this year the SPD.

I think the SPD can bury their hopes of coming anywhere close to the CDU in the EP elections because of this.

Just look how the Green support collapsed after the allegations became known and then they only got 8.5% after polling 14-15%.

There are already signs that the SPD will take a hit in the polls too.

The good thing for them is that the elections are still a few months away.

[Franzl]

Just look how the Green support collapsed after the allegations became known and then they only got 8.5% after polling 14-15%.

To be fair, even disregarding that incident, the Greens ran an exceptionally poor campaign. I'm not sure they would have reached double digits anyway.

[Yeahsayyeah]

I don't think that a narrative à la "The SPD is a party full of pedophiles and supports child abuse" will come out of this, that was buzzing throughout the right wing parts of the internet throughout ten years and was then made public. As Jörg Tauss did not hurt them - and did not hurt the Pirates, Edathy should not hurt them, but I don't know how far this irrational pedoscare thing will reach, that has lost all senses of proportion.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I doubt that this is about pedophilia at the moment, although some politicians have of course demanded tougher laws against child porn as a result of the Edathy affair.

I think the main narrative at this point is that the Grand coalition has become dysfunctional. For the last couple of days, CDU/CSU and SPD mainly seemed busy with getting rid of office-holders from the opposite party.

That and the fact that various people in the government may have willingly or unwittingly helped Edathy escape the authorities and the ramifications from that.

So, the issues are a) cabinet crisis and b) obstruction of justice. Edathy himself only serves as a backdrop.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Thomas Oppermann says he can't go because he's an "anchor of stability" for this coalition.

My first thought :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37OWL7AzvHo

[Franknburger]

Update on recent developments:

- After tonight's "elephant round" (Merkel, Gabriel, Seehofer), participants declined to disclose any details. Merkel has confirmed that Friedrich's retreat was the right step, and announced that further details will be investigated. The grand coalition is not in question, Merkel has stated that cooperation will continue.

- Christian Schmidt (CSU), previously Secretary of State within the Ministries of Economic Co-operation (since late 2013) and Defense (2005-2013) will become new Minister of Agriculture. Friedrich has unanimously been elected CSU deputy parliamentary whip, replacing Thomas Silberborn, who takes up the post of Secretary of State within the Ministry of Economic Co-operation that has been vacated by Schmidt. CSU parliamentary whip Gerda Hasselfeld has stated that trust in the political partner (i.e. the SPD) might influence political decision making, e.g. related to energy policy (Gabriel's portfolio).

- SPD parliamentary whip Oppermann has stated the SPD would not "connect issues that are not related to each other". He himself would be "an anchor of stability" for the coalition. Within the SPD leadership, there has been an emotional debate whether Edathy should be expelled.  Gabriel pushes for such a move. Others say they are in sorrow about Edathy - he would require help, not more kicking when already down on the floor.

The affair itself is even getting more obscure:
- Former Lower Saxony Minister of Interior Heiner Bartling (SPD, in office 1998-2003) has reported about a telephone talk with Edathy last week, where Edathy indicated that he had been tipped-off by an informant from inside the prosecution apparatus ("Da läuft was gegen Dich" - "Something is going on against you", with "you" in the German familiar mode, corresponding to Early Modern English "thee").
- After Canadian authorities had held a press conference on the child porn ring on November 14, 2013, Edathy's lawyer on November 20 had requested a meeting with Hannover's state attorney.
-The official letter requesting removal of Edathy's parliamentary immunity is dated February 6 and was posted on February 7. It, however, only reached the Bundestag presidency on February 12, and has apparently been opened, resealed and handed to another deliverer in the meantime. Sebastian Edathy retreated as parliamentarian on the morning of February 7. Strange coincidence...
- The first press report on the case comes out on February 11 in a local newspaper in Edathy's constituency. It includes photographs from the police's first search of Edathy's premises on February 10. On February 12, a telefax dated February 10 is received by the police station responsible for the Bundestag in which Edathy makes report of his duty laptop (public property) having disappeared on a railway journey to Amsterdam. Other than requested by Hanoover prosecutors, Edathy's Bundestag office has not been officially sealed. However, Bundestag administration has taken all computers there into custody - permission to search them has been requested today.

Bottom line: While the CSU will continue being upset for some more time, it looks unlikely that anything can be stuck on Oppermann or other SPD leaders. Lower Saxony prosecution agencies, however, might get even more into crossfire. That might concern some state politicians as well, especially Minister of Interior Boris Pistorius (SPD). Not quite the game the CSU is out for, but beggars can't be choosers...