German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

CDU/CSU is opening 10- and 12-point leads for the September election, according to 2 new polls today (Infratest Dimap and YouGov).

The Schulz-train is fully derailing right now.

[President Johnson]

To be fair, the SPD/Greens governing record in NRW is not that great. I still hope for a SPD-FDP government.

[Tender Branson]

The important NRW state election (= 18 million people) is tomorrow.

Time for my prediction:

31.6% CDU (+5.3%)
29.6% SPD (-9.5%)
14.0% FDP (+5.4%)
  7.6% AfD (+7.6%)
  6.8% Greens (-4.5%)
  5.9% Left (+3.4%)
  1.5% Pirates (-6.3)
  3.0% Others (-1.4%)

Turnout: 64.1% (+4.5%)

MoE = +/- 1% for parties above 10%, +/- 0.5% for parties below 10%

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What's with the super high FDP vote?

[Hydera]

What's with the super high FDP vote?

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Schleswig-Holstein_2017#Ergebnisse

If we look at Schleswig-holstein's election.


Probably the right-leaning pirate party voters back in 2012 going from to FDP. (Meanwhile the left leaning ones seem to be turning to die linke)

[palandio]

33.3% SPD (-5.8%)
31.0% CDU (+4.7%)
13.1% FDP (+4.5%)
  7.8% AfD (+7.8%)
  6.2% Greens (-5.1%)
  4.7% Left (+2.2%)
  1.4% Pirates (-6.4)
  2.5% Others (-1.9%)

Turnout: 65.0% (+5.4%)

Regarding the super high FDP vote: Christian Lindner in NRW and Wolfgang Kubicki in Schleswig-Holstein are the two most popular FDP politicians. The FDP has always been and is becoming even more so a low-floor high-ceiling party that can attract a lot of disaffected loosely economically liberal voters when it fields the right candidates.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout seems to be up so far according to reports from Dortmund, Essen and elsewhere, but it was extremely low back in 2012.

65% seems likely for today.

[palandio]

Official turnout statistics for a sample of cities, 12:00 (grey background), for comparison numbers of 2012 elections, 2013 federal elections and 2014 local elections:

http://www.mik.nrw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Redakteure/Bilder/Themen_und_Aufgaben/Buergerbeteiligung/Wahlen/Landtagswahl_2017/15-170514-Wahlbeteiligung_mittags.pdf

[palandio]

Turnout at 16:00

http://www.mik.nrw.de/fileadmin/user_upload/Redakteure/Bilder/Themen_und_Aufgaben/Buergerbeteiligung/Wahlen/Landtagswahl_2017/16-170514-Wahlbeteiligung_nachmittags-final.pdf

Turnout increase in Essen and Cologne lagging behind. Not too good for the SPD.

[Tender Branson]

Polls close in 25 minutes.

[palandio]

Looks good for CDU and FDP. :-( 10 minutes to go.

[Tender Branson]

Looks good for CDU and FDP. :-( 10 minutes to go.

Yeah ... wouldn't surprise me if the Kraft/Schulz train heads off the cliff in 5 minutes.

NRW has been referred to as the Greece of Germany ...

[Mike88]

Looks good for CDU and FDP. :-( 10 minutes to go.

Yeah ... wouldn't surprise me if the Kraft/Schulz train heads off the cliff in 5 minutes.

NRW has been referred to as the Greece of Germany ...

Wky is NRW compared to Greece??

[palandio]

CDU 34%, maybe even CDU+FDP majority, depending on Linke <5% or >5%. Also Greens only barely over 5%.

[Bumaye]

SPD 30.5  
CDU 34.5  
Greens 6  
FDP 12  
AfD 7.5  
Linke 5  
  
CDU/FDP currently at 89 seats if Linke is in. 91 are needed for a majority.   
 
Turnout 65.5%

[jaichind]

Initial forecast: CDU 34.5%, SPD 30.5%, FDP 12%, Green 6%, AfD 7.5%, LEFT 5%

[palandio]

No difference between FGW and infratest, except for the totally irrelevant Pirates.

[jaichind]

If Linke falls below 5% a CDU-FDP majority might be viable

[Mike88]

Schulz and SPD right now:

[jaichind]

Looks good for CDU and FDP. :-( 10 minutes to go.

Yeah ... wouldn't surprise me if the Kraft/Schulz train heads off the cliff in 5 minutes.

NRW has been referred to as the Greece of Germany ...

Wky is NRW compared to Greece??

Yeah.  I thought NRW was fairly economically advanced, especially in the industrial sector.

[ApatheticAustrian]

nrw is a structural problematic federal state, coal country and hard to reform.

[Mike88]

Any link to follow the results?

[Tender Branson]

nrw is a structural problematic federal state, coal country and hard to reform.

Yepp, it also has a huge debt problem when we compare it with fiscally well-off and well-managed states such as BW or BY and massive school problems. It also has the highest child poverty rate of all states. Maybe the German posters know more.

[Tender Branson]

Schulz and SPD right now:

^^^

[jaichind]

This result would be quite impressive for CDU as my understanding is that Kraft is fairly popular.