German Elections & Politics

[Bumaye]

The trend of rising turnouts in state elections doesn't seem to stop today.  
  
If the current coalition doesn't win which seems likely since CDU is on a high at the moment I'd prefer SPD/Green/FDP. I'm annoyed by Die Linke opposing the Fehmarn Belt link.

[PetrSokol]

Could you imegune CDU-FDP-SSW? It seems close to the majority. In the last poll 47 % vs. 47 % SPD-G-AfD....

[mgop]

Could you imegune CDU-FDP-SSW? It seems close to the majority. In the last poll 47 % vs. 47 % SPD-G-AfD....

but ssw is below threshold

[jaichind]

Could you imegune CDU-FDP-SSW? It seems close to the majority. In the last poll 47 % vs. 47 % SPD-G-AfD....

but ssw is below threshold

I think SSW is exempt from the threshold.

[mgop]

Could you imegune CDU-FDP-SSW? It seems close to the majority. In the last poll 47 % vs. 47 % SPD-G-AfD....

but ssw is below threshold

I think SSW is exempt from the threshold.

oh good for them, but still if polls are correct they will win just 2 seats

[ApatheticAustrian]

cdu and ssd don't like one another, the last cdu government tried to roll back the minority privileges.

big coalition is unlikely, traffic light or jamaica coalition, i guess.

[Mike88]

Civey poll. CDU/CSU 11% points ahead of SPD.

38% CDU/CSU
27% SPD
  9% LINKE
  9% AFD
  7% FDP
  6% GRUNE

[Bumaye]

The 2PM turnout for Schleswig-Holstein is still looking solid. I guess around 67-70% turnout in the end.  
  
  
  
As ApatheticAustrian said CDU and SSW don't go well with each other. The SSW is politically somewhere in between SPD and Greens. Pro asylum, pro same sex marriage, a scandinavian style school system, green energy, equal payment for men and women and obviously minority rights and more local self-governance.

[Sozialliberal]

Could you imegune CDU-FDP-SSW? It seems close to the majority. In the last poll 47 % vs. 47 % SPD-G-AfD....

but ssw is below threshold

I think SSW is exempt from the threshold.

The SSW is exempt from the threshold because it represents the Danish and the Frisian minority in Schleswig-Holstein. Note that the SSW had never been in government before 2012. It was disputed whether the SSW should make policy on issues that don't affect the Danish/Frisian minority in particular.

The SSW was not on good terms with CDU/FDP for some years. The black-yellow coalition, which governed from 2009 to 2012, cut funds for Danish schools in Schleswig-Holstein. The CDU sharply attacked the SSW before and after the 2012 state election. They even distributed leaflets in which they falsely claimed that the SSW demanded "pocket money for offenders on parole". The CDU later tried to reconcile with the SSW, but the SSW is still on friendlier terms with SPD/Greens.

[Middle-aged Europe]

The SSW is exempt from the threshold because it represents the Danish and the Frisian minority in Schleswig-Holstein. Note that the SSW had never been in government before 2012. It was disputed whether the SSW should make policy on issues that don't affect the Danish/Frisian minority in particular.

The SSW was not on good terms with CDU/FDP for some years. The black-yellow coalition, which governed from 2009 to 2012, cut funds for Danish schools in Schleswig-Holstein. The CDU sharply attacked the SSW before and after the 2012 state election. They even distributed leaflets in which they falsely claimed that the SSW demanded "pocket money for offenders on parole". The CDU later tried to reconcile with the SSW, but the SSW is still on friendlier terms with SPD/Greens.

Of course, there's no law forbidding the SSW to enter a governing coalition. It was just the CDU trying to tell the SSW what they're "supposed" to be allowed in a rather paternatlistic manner.

For many years it also has been commonplace that SPD and SSW cooperate in German presidential elections, a practice which preceded the current governing coalition. The SPD is usually piggybacking a SSW member into the Federal Assembly (= electoral college) as part of their Schleswig-Holsteinian delegation. And of course, the SSW usually endorses whoever the SPD presidential candidate is.

[Sozialliberal]

I'd also like to point out that the SSW receives donations from the Danish government. In 2013, the party received 458,000 euros worth of donations from the Danish government, which made up more than 70% of the party's total revenue. I think it's totally unacceptable that a party receives donations from a foreign government. I don't care if they are from the Danish government, the Turkish government or any other government in the world.

Source: http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/hohe-parteispenden-gaben-aus-kopenhagen-1.2427978

[ApatheticAustrian]

just want to add that this was the result of a treaty between germany and denmark and germany does the same with the german minority in denmark.

[Diouf]

The NDR host called it the "Küsten Koalition" (the Coastal Coalition, I presume). What does that exactly refer to? Is that just because Schleswig-Holstein has a lot of coast? Or does the parties in the government do better along the coast?

[Terry the Fat Shark]

link to results page for the state elections?

[palandio]

Wikipedia describes some kind of double unilateral declaration in 1955 by both the Danish and the German government to protect the German/Danish minority. I had thought that it is/was a treaty, too, but apparently it is not, at least technically.

The German party on the Danish side is active only in local politics because on a regional basis there wouldn't be enough voters to gain a seat.

It's true that the SSW is largely a Danish-funded outfit, but the main part of foreign (both Danish and German) funding seems to go to schools and cultural associations.

[palandio]

The NDR host called it the "Küsten Koalition" (the Coastal Coalition, I presume). What does that exactly refer to? Is that just because Schleswig-Holstein has a lot of coast? Or does the parties in the government do better along the coast?

The name I heard was "Küsten-Ampel" (i.e. coastal streetlights) which refers to the "Ampel" coalition (red SPD, yellow FDP, green Greens), but with the SSW instead of the FDP.
And yes, I think it is just because Schleswig-Holstein has a lot of coast.

[jaichind]

CDU 33%, SOCIAL DEMOCRATS 26% GREENS 13.5%, FDP 11.5%, LEFT 3.5%, AFD 5.5% SSW 3.5%

[Terry the Fat Shark]

CDU 33%, SOCIAL DEMOCRATS 26% GREENS 13.5%, FDP 11.5%, LEFT 3.5%, AFD 5.5%

prediction or actual results???

[Tender Branson]

ZDF:



CDU+7. Polls before the election said tie.

Almost like my prediction.

[Mike88]

Exit Poll (changes):

[jaichind]

CDU 33%, SOCIAL DEMOCRATS 26% GREENS 13.5%, FDP 11.5%, LEFT 3.5%, AFD 5.5%

prediction or actual results???

Exit poll

[Terry the Fat Shark]

link to results page for the state elections?

I found this:

https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article164333863/Alle-Ergebnisse-und-Grafiken-der-Landtagswahl-im-Ueberblick.html

Go to "Detail-Ergebnisse der Wahlkreise" and "Alle Wahlkreisgewinner".

Danke

[jaichind]

Is CDU-FDP-Green or SPD-FDP-Green at all possible?  If not then it is back to good old Grand Alliance.

[Sozialliberal]

Is CDU-FDP-Green or SPD-FDP-Green at all possible?  If not then it is back to good old Grand Alliance.

Both are possible. The FDP top candidate said that he would prefer a Jamaica coalition (CDU + Greens + FDP).

[Bumaye]

Is CDU-FDP-Green or SPD-FDP-Green at all possible?  If not then it is back to good old Grand Alliance.

 
  
Both absolutely possible and much more likely. FDP's Kubicki supports the Jamaica-Coalition (CDU/FDP/Green).  
  
Very good results for FDP and Greens. Their charismatic state leaders definitely helped them a lot. Quite horrible for the SPD. The Schulz honeymoon is definitely over. Unfortunately that the AfD most likely made it in but whatever, the Pirates have shown very well that things can change drastic for a protest party until the next election.