German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

My results for BW:

78.9% ÖDP
78.9% The Party
75.0% Animal Protection Party
75.0% Animal Protection Alliance
73.4% Human World
72.7% DKP
72.7% SPD
72.7% Left
71.1% Greens
71.1% Pirates
59.4% The Right
57.8% Alliance C
56.3% Free Voters
53.9% NPD
47.7% AfD
43.8% ALFA
43.0% CDU
42.2% FDP
39.8% BüSo
39.1% REP

[Tender Branson]

Has anyone seen "likelihood to vote" questions in the recent polls ?

I guess turnout will be up significantly because of the migrant situation, much like in the recent Austrian state elections.

[Tender Branson]

According to new INSA polls for the 3 state elections next Sunday, the AfD now has a chance to overtake the Left in Saxony-Anhalt and become 2nd largest party there with ~20%.

In BW, the Greens expand their lead over the CDU to ~5%, while the AfD is marching towards 15%.

In RP, CDU and SPD are in a close fight for first with both having ~35%.

[Tender Branson]

My predictions for the Sunday state elections:

Baden-Württemberg:

30.4% Greens
29.0% CDU
15.1% AfD
12.3% SPD
  7.0% FDP
  2.9% Left
  3.3% Others

Rheinland-Pfalz:

32.6% CDU
32.0% SPD
14.5% AfD
  6.7% Greens
  6.3% FDP
  3.6% Left
  4.3% Others

Sachsen-Anhalt:

28.8% CDU
20.2% AfD
19.7% Left
14.9% SPD
  5.4% FDP
  5.3% Greens
  2.6% FW
  3.1% Others

[Tender Branson]

Absentee ballot requests are up across the board .. by as much as 45% in Rheinland-Pfalz, 20-30% in Baden-Württemberg (which already had much higher turnout in 2011 due to Fukushima and Stuttgart 21) and even in Sachsen-Anhalt.

It will be interesting to see if there's higher turnout tomorrow due to the migrant crisis. In the state elections in Austria last year, turnout increased by quite a bit.

[Tender Branson]

My turnout estimates:

BW: ~67% (+1)
RP: ~65% (+3)
SA: ~53% (+2)

[Tender Branson]

Polls in all 3 "Super Sunday" states are now open !

Polls close at 6pm, which is when we'll get first projections.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout up significantly so far (until 12:00) in both BW and SA.

[Tender Branson]

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Turnout in RP was 44% at 12:00 - up from 31% at the same time in 2011.

[Tender Branson]

When does polls close ?  I assume 5PM Berlin time ?

6pm.

[Tender Branson]

If the current trends hold, then my new updated turnout projections for today are:

75% Rheinland-Pfalz (+13%)
70% Baden-Württemberg (+4%)
56% Sachsen-Anhalt (+5%)

Damn ... Easterners, get your lazy asses up and go voting !

[Tender Branson]

If the current trends hold, then my new updated turnout projections for today are:

75% Rheinland-Pfalz (+13%)
70% Baden-Württemberg (+4%)
56% Sachsen-Anhalt (+5%)

Damn ... Easterners, get your lazy asses up and go voting !

Turnouts are always low in the east. One reason why right-wingers are so strong.

Yes, turnout is high in Baden Württemberg. Especially in larger cities. This is good news for the governing Green-Red-Coalition.

Could be.  But could it also not be urban AfD voters who were non-voters before coming out in large numbers?

Both of you are right: In the Upper Austria and Vienna state elections, the first elections in central Europe impacted by the migrant crisis, there was a big increase in turnout (like in Germany today).

On the one hand, the high turnout (82% in Upper Austria and 75% in Vienna) led to a slight underperforming of the FPÖ relative to polls. But they still managed to get 31% in both states.

Based on this, it's likely that the AfD does really well today - because many previous non-voters are voting. Of course this might also help the established parties to some extent and the AfD might for example not break 20% in SA, or 15% in BW and RP and remain slightly below ...

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in Sachsen-Anhalt has picked up even more ...

At 2pm, it was 35.4% (+7%).

Overall, it could hit close to 60% (+9%), if the trend continues.

[Tender Branson]

Any links to results?

RP: http://www.wahlen.rlp.de/ltw/wahlen/2016/index.html

SA: https://www.statistik.sachsen-anhalt.de/wahlen/lt16/index.html

The BW site has broken down ...

[Tender Branson]

16:00 turnout updates:

+13% Rheinland-Pfalz
  +7% Sachsen-Anhalt
  +5% Baden-Württemberg

New estimates: 75% RP, 71% BW, 58% SA

[Tender Branson]

Sachsen-Anhalt has Landescode ST for a reason...

I know, but I don't care (mostly because Americans would be confused) ...

[Tender Branson]

Hundreds of riot police are protecting the AfD headquarters in Stuttgart for their election (victory ?) party ...

[Tender Branson]

Live streams ...

ARD

ZDF

Polls close in 40 minutes.

[Tender Branson]

ARD-guy is presenting some of the exit poll data and the numbers suggest that the AfD might not do that well in the Western states, but could shock in Sachsen-Anhalt.

In the 2 Western states, ~60% are happy with the current conditions in the state.

In Sachsen-Anhalt, it's the exact opposite with over 60% saying the current conditions are troubling.

[Tender Branson]

"I approve of Merkel's refugee policy."

43% BW
43% RP
29% SA

[Tender Branson]

Exit polls in 2 minutes.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, AfD not as strong as expected in the West (11-13%), but at 23% in Sachsen-Anhalt.

Greens to win Baden-Württemberg.

SPD on track to win Rheinland-Pfalz.

[Tender Branson]

Note: These are just exit polls.

A first projection with already some counted precincts will be out in ca. 30 minutes.

[Tender Branson]

According to the MDR (which uses the ARD projections), it's ca. 22-23% AfD and 2-3% NPD in Sachsen-Anhalt.

[Tender Branson]

Results as they come in:

BW

http://www.statistik.baden-wuerttemberg.de/Landtagswahl

RP

http://www.wahlen.rlp.de/ltw/wahlen/2016/index.html

SA

https://www.statistik.sachsen-anhalt.de/wahlen/lt16/fms/fms21113.html