German Elections & Politics

[palandio]

There seems to have occurred a movement from the SPD to the Greens and a demobilization of conservative voters.

In Bavaria before the recent election red-red-green was in the 32.5-35% range, only to end up at 30.4%. The reason probably was a last-minute mobilization in favor of CSU and FW. In the rest of Germany there is no CSU and no relevant FW, but I could still immagine a similar effect.

[palandio]

[...]
The Valley of the Clueless is well known, but apparently a thing of the past. Now spot the Hamburg, Frankfurt, Wolfsburg and West Berlin commuter belts.

There still is a strong correspondence between the "Valley of the Clueless" and the safe and likely AfD constituencies.

And I know where Hamburg, Frankfurt, Wolfsburg and West Berlin are, but I cannot see what makes their commuter belts special. Please explain.

[palandio]

[...]
The Valley of the Clueless is well known, but apparently a thing of the past. Now spot the Hamburg, Frankfurt, Wolfsburg and West Berlin commuter belts.

There still is a strong correspondence between the "Valley of the Clueless" and the safe and likely AfD constituencies.

And I know where Hamburg, Frankfurt, Wolfsburg and West Berlin are, but I cannot see what makes their commuter belts special. Please explain.

Sorry, I was a bit unclear. The parts of the East where daily commutes to the West are possible and worth the effort. The AfD heartland is what it is, but the pattern of expansion into Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt and Thuringia tell another (if related) story.

Thank you, that makes sense. I would add that the "Valley of the Clueless" was caused mostly by geographic distance from the West (plus some minor topographical obstacles) and therefore cannot be that easily distinguished from the area where a daily commute to the West doesn't make sense. The overlap is very high.

By the way the Eastern German counties with the lowest unemployment are Sonneberg and Hildburghausen in the Coburg commuter belt.

Regarding the "Valley of the Clueless" it has turned out that the Stasi (Eastern German internal secret service) did studies on the effect of the reception of Western television in the 80s. And one of the results was that Western information and entertainment made people happier, more content, more trustful and more ready to tolerate the regime.

[palandio]

My bold prediction: RRG/GRR will not have a majority. I'm not exactly sure about who out of CDU, FDP and AfD will overperform, if I had to guess I would say FDP.

[palandio]

My prediction for Hesse:

CDU: 27.2%
SPD: 20.0%
Greens: 19.3%
AfD: 12.3%
FDP: 9.2%
Left: 7.5%
FW: 2.5%
Others: 2.0%

[palandio]

Spahn is not very popular, that's right.

But Merz hasn't been tested for the last 10-15 years. He gets the conservative base excited exactly because of his absence. I don't believe that he is the charismatic vote-getter until proven otherwise.

[palandio]

[...]
Good job!
Herdegen (also 61) is a professor of international law from Bonn. However, he doesn't seem to have a specific agenda whatsoever.
[...]

Regarding the UN compact on migration Herdegen is rather critical.
https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article183078096/UN-Migrationspakt-Unterzeichnerstaaten-schaffen-damit-Erwartungen-bei-Migrationswilligen.html

'The Bonn-based international law professor Matthias Herdegen warns against the associated "gray area of ​​legal non-commitment, that still gives the impression of liability." Signatory states "thus create expectations among those willing to migrate" without, however, building on "reliable structures", according to the scientist who recently announced his candidacy for the CDU chairmanship in an interview with WELT.'

Herdegen is rather conservative, he is for control and restriction of immigration, for lower taxes, against quantitative easing in the Eurozone, for an active role of Germany in the NATO and for a CDU/CSU minority government.
https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschland/kandidat-fuer-cdu-vorsitz-ein-professor-will-es-wagen-merkel-herausforderer-matthias-herdegen_id_9798483.html