German Elections & Politics

[Tender Branson]

Not that I doubt the results, but n=17 for the NPD (or other small parties) is frankly a joke.

If they wanted to do a legitimate survey, they should have used an oversample for small parties (for example n=500 for all parties).

[Tender Branson]

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/index.htm

Currently, the FDP averages about 3% in the federal polls.

The funny thing:

1 major pollster (ZDF's Forschungsgruppe Wahlen) is putting the FDP into the "other" category, unlike other pollsters who still publish separate FDP numbers.

IIRC, the FDP has even sued ZDF/FGW because of this.

[Tender Branson]

Only 45.

Ramelow fails to win in first round.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting new poll out of Germany by one of the main pollsters:

What do you think ? Should Germany accept the Krim-Anschluss (annexation) to Russia as a fact and also legally accept it ?



By party:



Do you see Putin's current foreign policy as a threat to Germany or not ?



By party:

[Tender Branson]

Hamburg will vote in about 2 months and there is a new major poll out by Infratest dimap:



The SPD remains dominant, but loses the absolute majority. The Left is pretty strong there for a West-German state. AfD is currently not in (5% threshold), but tends to underpoll. FDP is out.

Voters prefer a SPD-Green coalition, if the SPD indeed ends up losing it:



In the direct vote for Mayor, Scholz (SPD) easily beats the CDU guy:



Scholz also has the best job approval ratings:

[Tender Branson]

Hamburg will have a state election in 5 weeks.

13 parties are running:

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Green = already in the state parliament

[Tender Branson]

2 Hamburg polls today (I'll just average them):

42.5 SPD
22.5 CDU
14.0 Greens
  7.5 Left
  5.5 AfD
  4.0 FDP
  4.0 Others

The FDP is somehow making a comeback ? Does anyone know why ?

[Tender Branson]

Probably the media attention in the last week (traditional "Dreikönigstreffen" FDP party meeting at the 6th January and the "ARD is filming Katja Suding's (the Hamburg FDP top candidate) legs).

The ARD people have a feet-fetish ?

LOL.

[Tender Branson]

2 Hamburg polls today (I'll just average them):

42.5 SPD
22.5 CDU
14.0 Greens
  7.5 Left
  5.5 AfD
  4.0 FDP
  4.0 Others

The FDP is somehow making a comeback ? Does anyone know why ?

All down to the new logo. The Freie Demokraten are also at 4% in the latest Infratest dimap poll for the first time in half a year.

They have a new one ? OK, just checked and indeed:



Also, new federal Emnid poll today (also showing a FDP comeback):

42% CDU/CSU
24% SPD
  9% Greens
  9% Left
  7% AfD
  4% FDP
  5% Others

[Tender Branson]

One asylum seeker from Eritrea has been killed last Monday under obscure circumstances - and the first statement the police gave was, that they could absolutely rule out unlawful killing. After 30 hours they suddenly discovered knife stiches all over his body (that had been found bleeding before) and only after that the securing of traces began.

As it turns out, he was killed by a fellow Eritrean over a financial dispute. The killing had nothing to do with PEGIDA.

http://www.dw.de/arrest-made-over-the-death-of-dresden-asylum-seeker/a-18209972
http://eastafro.com/Post/2015/01/22/26-year-old-eritrean-arrested-over-khaled-idris-bahrays-germany-killing/

Leftists wrongly assumed that it somehow must have been PEGIDA's fault, and then tried to use it against them.

While Eastern Germany historically had a problem with Neo-Nazis killing asylum seekers, asylum seekers are in fact most likely to be killed by other asylum seekers and not Far-Right wingers.

At least here, there have been numerous cases in which some Afghan asylum seeker killed some Iraqi, Chechens killing each other off because the one fu**ed his sister and is therefore going nuts because of "family honour", etc. etc.

[Tender Branson]

New Hamburg poll (Infratest dimap for NDR):

44% SPD
20% CDU
13% Greens
  9% Left
  6% AfD
  5% FDP
  3% Others

SPD loses absolute majority. AfD in, FDP back in too (after polling on a low level before).

http://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/hamburg/Zweiter-HamburgTREND-im-Januar-2015,hhwahlumfrage104.html

[Tender Branson]

My results from the Hamburg "Wahl-o-mat":

78.6% New Liberals
75.5% Party for Retired People
74.5% ÖDP
66.3% Pirates
66.3% Left
64.3% Greens
63.3% HHBL
62.2% SPD
62.2% The Party
56.1% CDU
52.0% FDP
49.0% AfD
35.7% NPD

https://www.wahl-o-mat.de/hamburg2015

[Tender Branson]

A final FGW/ZDF poll was released for Hamburg, so I need to update my prediction:

46.0% SPD (-2.5%)
18.0% CDU (-4.0%)
12.0% Greens (+1.0%)
  8.5% Left (+2.0%)
  5.5% FDP (-1.0%)
  5.5% AfD (+5.5%)
  4.5% Others

Turnout: 55% (-2%)

[Tender Branson]

State election in Hamburg today.

For the first time ever, 16 and 17-year olds will be allowed to vote as well.

Polls close @ 6pm local time.

[Tender Branson]

If there's a last minute "Copenhagen-effect", it probably helps CDU and AfD the most.

But since the CDU polled only 17-19% anymore, an "effect" would probably mean 20%+ or even 21% to be measurable, and ca. 6% for the AfD.

[Tender Branson]

Hamburg - 11am turnout:

2015: 24.2%
2011: 25.7%

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

SPD: 45%
CDU: 18%
AfD: 10% 😭
Greens: 10%
Left: 8%
FDP: > 5% 😭 😭 😭

Nope.

Hamburg ≠ East Germany

[Tender Branson]

This is the birthplace of the Schill-Party though... (not that I think the AfD will come anywhere close to 10%).

That's correct, but I don't see the AfD repeating the Schill result there right after the 9/11 attacks.

The Schill Party got 19% just 2 weeks after the 9/11 attacks and underpolled by 5%.

The AfD polls only 4-6% right now and if we assume a similar %-wise underpolling relative to their actual polling, they will not get more than 7-8% today, even when factoring in the Copenhagen terror attacks.

[Tender Branson]

So have the FDP in Hamburg found a four leaved clover or something?

Nope, just a woman with some decent legs.

Here is, btw, the "delicate" video Beezer was adverting to ...

I'm tempted to do a "hot or not, or just hot enough for the FDP to get 5%+" poll on those legs.

[Tender Branson]

FDP-Legslide !

[Tender Branson]

It should be noted that Hamburg elections are special:

Every voter has 10 votes.

* 5 votes for the state list
* 5 votes for the district candidates

Either you can allocate all 5 votes on each ballot paper to the same party/candidate, or you can distribute your votes to different parties. For example, you can allocate 3 votes to the SPD, 1 vote for Left and 1 for Greens. Or 2 votes CDU, 2 votes SPD, 1 vote AfD - and so on ...

The same for the district ballot paper.

...

This election system is the reason why first predictions by ARD and ZDF should be taken with a grain of salt.

Vote counting will take until midnight (for the fast-track system that will show the seat distribution).

The actual votes will only be counted tomorrow and the final result will be out tomorrow evening !

[Tender Branson]

Mayor Scholz (SPD) gets a 83% (!!!) approval rating.

He gets at least 70% approval from the voters of all parties (and 98% approval from SPD-voters).

[Tender Branson]

885 of 1.780 precincts counted (or 316.960 valid ballots, out of 1.299.411 eligible):

47.0% SPD
16.1% CDU
10.9% Greens
  8.3% Left
  7.0% FDP
  6.6% AfD
  1.5% Pirates
  0.8% The Party
  0.5% New Liberals
  0.4% NPD
  0.4% ÖDP
  0.3% Retirees
  0.2% HHBL

http://www.wahlen-hamburg.de/wahlen.php?site=left/gebiete&wahl=963

[Tender Branson]

AfD does a little better than what the exit-polls show:

Currently 6.6% and they will probably end up between 6 and 6.5% in the end.

[Tender Branson]

Roughly 62% of the expected vote has now been counted.