So, we got an average of about McAuliffe +6? I think on election day, it will come down to something like this:
50% McAuliffe
44% Cuccinelli
6% Sarvis
I'm not so sure, my friend. 3rd party candidates inevitably dive bomb in polling numbers as the election nears, and usually fall even short of those numbers on Election Day itself. Simply put, many voters are willing to support a third party to register dissatisfaction of the major party candidates in an opinion poll, but relatively few are actually willing to actually throw their ballots away in a futile protest once they're in the voting booth.
I guess it's reasonably possible Sarvis could still reach around 5% of the vote due to the extraordinarily lackluster alternatives, but I'd doubt it. Particularly as the race is still likely to be at least close-ish come November (this being VA and all), so fewer voters may be willing to risk whoever they consider the greater of two evils winning because the Libertarian protest vote swung the election.
A lot of things could still affect this race, but one question I have is how the current Sarvis voters are likely to fall when his numbers surely fall (probably to low single digits). Probably way too tough to accurately tell from such a small sub-sample (without bothering to look, were voters even asked their likelihood of changing minds by Election Day and/or their second choice candidate?). I'm also not sure the typical "will Libertarian voters prefere economically conservative Republicans or socially liberal Democrats" debate is applicable here as the vast majority of Sarvis's current support is clearly protest/dislike of the major candidates rather than actual Libertarian voters. My wild uneducated guess is many such protest voters polled tend to be younger, which would
possibly benefit McAuliffe more than Cuccinelli.
Then again, maybe the major "choice" among current Sarvis supporters will be not to vote at all? Any thoughts or observations here?
