Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[Tender Branson]

Oh my god, no.
I'm now seriously considering leaving Austria after the next elections, and never come back again -.-

No wonder FPÖ and NEOS do well now, considering the HYPO fallout in recent days/weeks ...

[Cranberry]

Yes, but 5% better than the SPÖ?
And that even though the FPÖ is the main reason for the whole HYPO thing?
I think too much Austrians are really too dumb to vote.

[Tender Branson]

To show what's going on with the HYPO in recent days, here a short summary:

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[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for the "Standard":

27% FPÖ (+6.5)
22% SPÖ (-5.0)
19% ÖVP (-5.0)
13% NEOS (+8.0)
13% Greens (+0.5)
  2% TS (-4.0)
  1% BZÖ (-3.0)
  3% Others

http://derstandard.at/1392687897289/Neos-sind-gleichauf-mit-den-Gruenen

From the same poll: In the hypothetical direct vote for Chancellor, NEOS-leader Matthias Strolz has now overtaken both Strache (FPÖ) and Spindelegger (ÖVP) and is now only a few points behind Chancellor Faymann (SPÖ):

[Cranberry]

This must be embarrassing for Spindi, as well as the ÖVP as a whole.
Just shows again that the ÖVP is a dying party, outside of the local level.

[Hifly]

Yes, but 5% better than the SPÖ?
And that even though the FPÖ is the main reason for the whole HYPO thing?
I think too much Austrians are really too dumb to vote.

How is calling Austrian voters "dumb" going to help you win them back to your side?

[FredLindq]

However, all five paryleaders between 12% and 17% is not that bad for ÖVP. However around 20% in the polls is.

[Tender Branson]

ATV Austria Trend (sample = 1000):

27% FPÖ (+6.5)
24% SPÖ (-3.0)
20% ÖVP (-4.0)
13% NEOS (+8.0)
12% Greens (-0.5)
  1% TS (-5.0)
  3% Others

http://atv.at/binaries/asset/download_assets/4418155/file

[Tender Branson]

The Raiffeisen bank and the BAWAG bank have announced that they will pay back 1.75 Bio. € & 0.35 Bio. € in state aid this year (which they got from the government after the 2008 financial crisis).

Setting up the HYPO bad bank this year will drive up the budget deficit this year by about 3-4 Bio. €, according to Austrian Central Bank chair Nowotny.

Which means it is unlikely that Austria will have a budget deficit of more than 3% this year, despite finally setting up the bad bank for the HYPO to wind it down:

The planned budget deficit is 1.5% of GDP, setting up the HYPO bad-bank would increase that to 2.7% of GDP, but the pay-back in state-aid is worth 0.7% of GDP. That means a projected deficit of 2% for 2014.

But, the bad thing is that the HYPO will drive up the state debt from 74% to 80% ...

http://derstandard.at/1392688094018/Bawag-zahlt-am-Freitag-Staatskapital-zurueck

Well, let's hope SPÖVP handles at least the bad bank in a competent way, so that they don't fall to 15% support in the polls ...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sort of thing that can happen if there's a big scandal of this sort. Only start to worry if the numbers last.

[Tender Branson]

Finance Minister Michael Spindelegger (ÖVP) has decided today that the "insolvency option" for the HYPO is not an option anymore and that the government will definitely go for the Bad Bank.

Spindelegger also wants to force the state of Carinthia to transfer the money from their "Future Fund" to the central government to help pay for the costs of the Carinthian fail-bank.

The Carinthian "Future Fund" was set up by Jörg Haider once and was filled with payments that the state got when it sold the HYPO to the Bavarians about 6-7 years ago.

Jörg Haider (far-right-winger) once said: "This deal will make Carinthia rich !"

Now Spindelegger wants to force them to pay the money back, if necessary with an extra law in parliament. Carinthia is totally opposed to this idea.

http://diepresse.com/home/wirtschaft/economist/1574929/Hypo_Entscheidung-fur-Anstaltslosung-gefallen

[Tender Branson]

That pretty much sums it up:



Inventions from Austria.

Today: "Logic"

1: FPÖ causes HYPO bank scandal !
2: Austrian taxpayer has to pay for it.
3: What now ?
4: Austrian taxpayer votes FPÖ.

[Cranberry]

Yes, but 5% better than the SPÖ?
And that even though the FPÖ is the main reason for the whole HYPO thing?
I think too much Austrians are really too dumb to vote.

How is calling Austrian voters "dumb" going to help you win them back to your side?

It won't, I've given up on that front. You would have too, if you were an Austrian.

Hahaha ^^ You're so right, Tender.

[Tender Branson]

For the German-speakers, an article worth reading from the "Kurier":



Hypo: Das Puzzle eines blauen Exzesses ("Hypo: The puzzle of a blue excess")

...

("blue" in the sense of FPÖ-blue)

[Tender Branson]

New IMAS poll confirms the FPÖ-lead that other pollsters have found recently:



http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/Hypo-Irrsinn_macht_FPOe_zur_klaren_Nummer_eins-Laut_IMAS-Umfrage-Story-397100

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup poll for Ö24:



Crosstabs of the federal poll (take it with a ton of salt though, because the sample is only 400):



men
women

Unter 30 = below 30 year olds
30-50 year olds
50+ year olds

self-employed
civil servants/white-collar employed
clue collar workers
students/university students
housewifes
pensioners

income up to 1800€ a month
income up to 2500€ a month
income up to 3300€ a month
income more than 3300€ a month

...

The 2 charts below the crosstabs are the EU voting intentions. The first chart shows voting intentions among all people surveyed. The 2nd chart is only "likely voters", those who say they are either "certain" or "likely" to vote in the EU elections.

Link

[Tender Branson]

Austria names German banker as Hypo Alpe Adria chairman

(Reuters) - Austria named veteran German banker and restructuring expert Herbert Walter as chairman of bailed-out state bank Hypo Alpe Adria HAABI.UL.

Walter, a former head of Dresdner Bank, replaces Klaus Liebscher, who resigned last month after disagreements with the government over how to deal with Hypo.



Austria nationalized the bank in 2009 when it was on the verge of collapse after a decade of breakneck expansion at home and in the Balkans, fuelled by debt guarantees from its home province of Carinthia.

Hypo asked the government on Friday for another 1.43 billion euros ($2 billion) in emergency funds to cover its capital needs through September. Earlier this month, it had signaled the need for an unspecified amount to cope with writedowns until it transfers billions of euros worth of assets to a "bad bank" later this year. Hypo has already received 4.8 billion euros ($6.62 billion) in state aid since 2008.

Austria put an end to uncertainty over Hypo's future earlier this month when it ruled out the possibility of letting it go bust. Instead, the government will wind down the bank via a bad bank that will take on 18 billion euros of Hypo assets, but it will take months until the wind-down facility is set up.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/23/us-hypoalpeadria-chairman-idUSBREA2M0E020140323

...

Finance Minister Spindelegger has also announced the creation of an "investigation committee" for the HYPO-failings over the past decade or so, headed by former Austrian Supreme Court President Irmgard Griss:



Of course the opposition is fuming: They want a parliamentary investigation committee and not a SPÖVP-proposed "investigation committee" with no parliamentary oversight.

[Tender Branson]

New poll by Meinungsraum for NEWS magazine (sample = 800):

27% FPÖ
24% SPÖ
18% ÖVP
14% NEOS
12% Greens
  1% TS
  1% BZÖ
  3% Others

Worst ÖVP-percentage I've ever seen in a national poll ...

Remember that the ÖVP got 42% in the 2002 election. What a collapse.

[Cranberry]

NEOS stronger than the Grüne, and FPÖ even stronger then in the last polls?
I think it would be better for my mood not to look at polls anymore -.-

[Tender Branson]

Some good news from the banking sector, after all the bad HYPO news recently:

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...

So, what does it mean ?

Austria's budget deficit will rise to about 2-3% this year, up from 1.5% in 2013. Mostly because setting up the HYPO bad bank will cost an additional 3-4 Bio. €, while the state additionally needs to inject a further 1.5 Bio. € into the bank in the next months so that they can meet their capital needs for the first 3 quarters (the bad bank will be up and running in Q3 or Q4).

The additional spending (ca. 5 Bio. €) is co-financed by a payback in state aid from the RZB and BAWAG banks, which will pay back about 1.75 Bio. € in the next months. The BAWAG has already paid back 0.35 Bio. € a few weeks ago. Also, Carinthia will have to pay 0.5 Bio. € from their future fund to wind down the HYPO.

Which means the government will spend 5 Bio. € on the HYPO this year, but will get at least 2.6 Bio. € back.

The state debt will increase by about 6% this year, from 74% to 80% - because 18 Bio. € of toxic assets from the HYPO will be transferred into the bad bank.

These assets will be sold over time, so that in about 10 years the debt ratio will go back by about 6% again.

[Tender Branson]

Here are the historical Austrian Maastricht-related budget deficits and debts (in % of the GDP):

[Tender Branson]

New OGM poll for the "Kurier" has the FPÖ down in 2nd place for the first time in a few months (until now, the FPÖ has always been leading or tied with the SPÖ in national polls):



http://kurier.at/politik/inland/kurier-ogm-umfrage-neos-ueberholen-gruene-fpoe-haengt-die-oevp-ab/59.329.249

[Tender Branson]

A roundtable meeting between 3 federal ÖVP ministers (Family & Youth, Interior, Justice) and LGBT groups today brought some interesting developments:

The ÖVP agreed to streamline some civil union formalities further with those of traditional marriage.

* The civil union law will be amended in a way that those who want to register a civil union can now do so at every town hall in all 2400 Austrian cities, and not just at the district administrations. This will then be the same procedure as for heteros who want to marry.

* Common family names will be allowed now as well, not just a "double-name".

http://derstandard.at/1395364608580/Verpartnerung-am-Standesamt-zeichnet-sich-ab

Last year, Austria already legalized adoption by gay/lesbian couples (but by court order, not because the ÖVP moved).

[Tender Branson]

One day after announcing that they won't run in the EP election, the Team Stronach today also announced that they won't run in the Vorarlberg state election in September:

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/1588593/Vorarlberg_Team-Stronach-laesst-Landtagswahl-aus

[Tender Branson]

Elections for the Arbeiterkammer/AK (=Workers´Chambers) took place (with AK-LowerAustria coming in May) and saw an increased dominance of FSG(=SPÖ), losses for FCG-ÖAAB(=ÖVP) and moderate gains for FA(=FPÖ) and AUGE(=Greens). FCG held their 2 Länder (Tyrol & Vorarlberg), the FSG the other 6.
The SPÖ gained ~2% in Salzburg&Burgenland&Vienna, performed strongly in Carinthia (+10)and UpperA. (+6), but lost 8% in Styria, where the FPÖ added 7% (loosing 6% in Carinthia and 3,3% in Vienna).
The ÖVP-list gained 1% in their traditional stronghold Tyrol (64%) and lost everywhere else: -1 in Carinthia&Vorarlberg, -3 in Styria, -4 in Vienna, -5 in Salzburg&Burgenland, -8,3 in UpperA.

Just to add an important thing that our English-speaking/etc. posters might not understand:

The AK-vote (Worker's Chamber) is the big Union vote that takes place every 5 years.

About 1/3 Austrian employees and workers are unionized.

The FSG (Fraction of Socialist Unionists) did rather well, especially in Carinthia it seems.

The FCG (Fraction of Christian Unionists) held their 2 Western states.

The FA (Freedomite Workers Union) performed rather poorly, except in Styria - which might see a sharp turn towards the FPÖ in next years state election there.