A winning Scenario for Wendy Davis-TX Governor's Race

[Fuzzy Bear]

I can't see Wendy Davis winning.  She's a real lightweight, in truth, who had one moment in the sun, but she does not come off as a chief executive, much less a chief executive of a state as large as Texas. 

You don't have to be a "me-too" Democrat to win in today's Texas, but you do have to appear to be up to the job.  Wendy Davis does not come off as a Governor.  I could see her pulling off winning a Congressional seat, but not a Governor's race.

Could she win the urban counties?  Probably.  Would she sweep South Texas?  Yes.  But I believe that Davis would LOSE ground in the rest of Texas.  She's put herself out there on a hot-button social issue in Texas where there are still some moderate Democrats who will not vote for someone who wages a pro-abortion filibuster. 

[DS0816]

I can't see Wendy Davis winning.  She's a real lightweight, in truth, who had one moment in the sun, but she does not come off as a chief executive, much less a chief executive of a state as large as Texas. 

You don't have to be a "me-too" Democrat to win in today's Texas, but you do have to appear to be up to the job.  Wendy Davis does not come off as a Governor.  I could see her pulling off winning a Congressional seat, but not a Governor's race.

Could she win the urban counties?  Probably.  Would she sweep South Texas?  Yes.  But I believe that Davis would LOSE ground in the rest of Texas.  She's put herself out there on a hot-button social issue in Texas where there are still some moderate Democrats who will not vote for someone who wages a pro-abortion filibuster. 

^ Pointless.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Don't forget all of the hype surrounding former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) back in 2010: folks got too cute with the outlier polls, showing a close race...until Perry kicked White's ass by a landslide margin.

[IceSpear]

Don't forget all of the hype surrounding former Houston Mayor Bill White (D) back in 2010: folks got too cute with the outlier polls, showing a close race...until Perry kicked White's ass by a landslide margin.

Not quite the same thing. Perry very well could've lost (or at least had a close race) if not for the 2010 GOP wave pulling him over the finish line. Wendy Davis probably would lose against Abbott even in a Dem wave year.

[Badger]

I can't see Wendy Davis winning.  She's a real lightweight, in truth, who had one moment in the sun, but she does not come off as a chief executive, much less a chief executive of a state as large as Texas. 

You don't have to be a "me-too" Democrat to win in today's Texas, but you do have to appear to be up to the job.  Wendy Davis does not come off as a Governor.  I could see her pulling off winning a Congressional seat, but not a Governor's race.

Could she win the urban counties?  Probably.  Would she sweep South Texas?  Yes.  But I believe that Davis would LOSE ground in the rest of Texas.  She's put herself out there on a hot-button social issue in Texas where there are still some moderate Democrats who will not vote for someone who wages a pro-abortion filibuster. 

^ Pointless.

Actually, a pretty good analysis.

[Liberalrocks]

A Texas Tribune poll has Davis down by around 6 points depending on how well the Libertarian candidate is polling. 6 points is not a bad place to be a year out, of course I have my doubts that she will win, but I believe she will lose with the closest margin since 1994. I believe this will turn into a tighter race then Texas is use to seeing.

[Indy Texas]

Part of the problem is that the Democrats literally have nothing but Wendy. There is no "Dream Team" like 2002.

The LiteGuv candidate is Maria Alvarado, who ran in '06 and has never held any elected office.

For AgComm, they have Kinky Friedman. Rural voters might actually be offended that the Democrats have such a flippant nominee.

The closest thing to an actual candidate is the outgoing mayor of El Paso running for land commish.

[badgate]

A Texas Tribune poll has Davis down by around 6 points depending on how well the Libertarian candidate is polling. 6 points is not a bad place to be a year out, of course I have my doubts that she will win, but I believe she will lose with the closest margin since 1994. I believe this will turn into a tighter race then Texas is use to seeing.

I agree, and I think the retirement of Gov. Perry is ultimately the cause. So many of the poll results that were surprising me pointed to the land rush for every state-wide office in the state (on the GOP side). At the Governor's level, of course, this is the first open election since 1990.

[Badger]

A Texas Tribune poll has Davis down by around 6 points depending on how well the Libertarian candidate is polling. 6 points is not a bad place to be a year out, of course I have my doubts that she will win, but I believe she will lose with the closest margin since 1994. I believe this will turn into a tighter race then Texas is use to seeing.

And how well do 3rd party candidates usually do on election day compared to their poll numbers?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

A Texas Tribune poll has Davis down by around 6 points depending on how well the Libertarian candidate is polling. 6 points is not a bad place to be a year out, of course I have my doubts that she will win, but I believe she will lose with the closest margin since 1994. I believe this will turn into a tighter race then Texas is use to seeing.

And how well do 3rd party candidates usually do on election day compared to their poll numbers?

Generally not as well, altho Sardis' numbers in Virgina held up better than I expected, but that's because there were a lot of people unhappy with either major candidate, including most who ended up voting for the lesser of two weevils.

[Miles]

Well, looks like there's no longer the off chance that Medina runs; she's filing for comptroller instead.

[Badger]

A Texas Tribune poll has Davis down by around 6 points depending on how well the Libertarian candidate is polling. 6 points is not a bad place to be a year out, of course I have my doubts that she will win, but I believe she will lose with the closest margin since 1994. I believe this will turn into a tighter race then Texas is use to seeing.

And how well do 3rd party candidates usually do on election day compared to their poll numbers?

Generally not as well, altho Sardis' numbers in Virgina held up better than I expected, but that's because there were a lot of people unhappy with either major candidate, including most who ended up voting for the lesser of two weevils.

Sarvis was an extraordinary case that isn't likely to reproduce in TX next year, and even he wound up finishing at about half what he was polling a few weeks earlier.

Sice there was no link to the poll, how well did the Libertarian have to do in order for Davis to get within 6 points?

[ElectionsGuy]

A Texas Tribune poll has Davis down by around 6 points depending on how well the Libertarian candidate is polling. 6 points is not a bad place to be a year out, of course I have my doubts that she will win, but I believe she will lose with the closest margin since 1994. I believe this will turn into a tighter race then Texas is use to seeing.

6 points is actually the best poll for Davis I've seen so far. PPP has her down 15 against Abbott. So I'm very skeptical of this 'close race' stuff.

[Indy Texas]

These are the figures for the Libertarians in previous races:
2010: 2.19%
2006: 0.60%
2002: 1.46%
1998: 0.55%
1994: 0.64%
1990: 3.32%

In 1990, you could argue that the Libertarian was a spoiler, given the vote total exceeded the margin between Richards and Williams. That race was an early predecessor to races like Missouri and Indiana in 2012 and Virginia in 2013, where a Republican with repulsive social issues views incited many people to vote for the Libertarian. I'm not sure what to attribute the relatively strong 2010 performance to.

It's also worth pointing out that the Texas Libertarian Party relatively moderate compared to some other state parties. It draws a lot of its votes from Travis County and their 2006 candidate for US Senate actually supported an ACA-style insurance mandate, which already puts them to the left of the state Republican Party.

[pbrower2a]

wedndy davis has about as much of a chance as winnig this as the dems do of holding senates in michigan and iwoa, nonexistent, fools gold for governors dems should focus on holding assachusetts and minesota, i think ct hi ri and il are gone at this point

Fools' gold is expecting political wisdom from people who really don't know anything. Iowa and Michigan at the least have difficult seats for Republicans to pick up. Everything must go right for Republicans to pick up the open seats.

I notice your 'spelling' of 'Massachusetts'. Freudian slip there? I've been in Massachusetts, and I am impressed. It isn't Oklahoma, a state that looks beaten and woebegone, decrepit before its time.

Do yourself a favor -- either pay more attention to your high-school homework or (if you have dropped out) go back for your GED.

[publicunofficial]

wedndy davis has about as much of a chance as winnig this as the dems do of holding senates in michigan and iwoa, nonexistent, fools gold for governors dems should focus on holding assachusetts and minesota, i think ct hi ri and il are gone at this point

Fools' gold is expecting political wisdom from people who really don't know anything. Iowa and Michigan at the least have difficult seats for Republicans to pick up. Everything must go right for Republicans to pick up the open seats.

I notice your 'spelling' of 'Massachusetts'. Freudian slip there? I've been in Massachusetts, and I am impressed. It isn't Oklahoma, a state that looks beaten and woebegone, decrepit before its time.

Do yourself a favor -- either pay more attention to your high-school homework or (if you have dropped out) go back for your GED.

Psst...You're a little late to the party.