WV-PPP: Clinton trails everyone (user search)
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Author Topic: WV-PPP: Clinton trails everyone  (Read 5905 times)
Pessimistic Antineutrino
Pessimistic Antineutrino
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Posts: 1,896
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« on: September 25, 2013, 07:40:38 PM »

West Virginia is as gone for the Democrats as Vermont is for Republicans.

When's the last time Vermont elected a Republican senator with 61% of the vote?

2000, and with 65% of the vote. A Jeffords type could probably win there today just as a Manchin type could win massively in WV.  Not to mention that Shumlin's predecessor served for four terms as a Republican from 2003 to 2011, just as Tomblin is a Democratic governor of WV. Not to mention that Douglas held on by 15% and 32% margins respectively in 2006 and 2008, not exactly Republican waves. Tomblin's largest margin of victory as of yet is 5%.

I'm not saying that someone like Christie could make it close in Vermont, but chances are Hillary has just about as much of a chance winning in WV as Christie does in VT.
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
Pessimistic Antineutrino
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,896
United States


« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2013, 06:39:26 PM »

West Virginia is as gone for the Democrats as Vermont is for Republicans.

When's the last time Vermont elected a Republican senator with 61% of the vote?

2000, and with 65% of the vote.

So 13 years ago, compared to 1 year ago for Manchin, which proves my point. If Manchin loses in 2018, then I'll be willing to say WV is permanently gone for the Democrats.

Governors are an entirely different beast. Even Wyoming elected a Democratic governor, as Vermont did a Republican one.

Manchin is not Hillary, and as PolitiJunkie said, a liberal will not win WV. Period.

One could argue that Maine is not a Democratic state because it has no Democratic statewide officials. Yet at the same time it has gone Democratic every cycle since 1992.

Statewide and national elections are two different things entirely. The NJ gubernatorial race is not Safe R. It is Safe Christie, just as the 2012 WV senate race was Safe Manchin, not Safe D. Often the statewide races are a great indicator of a state's national lean. But as in the case of WV, it is not.

So no, WV is not gone for all Democrats, but almost no states are gone for all Democrats or all Republicans. WV is gone for all D presidential nominees, because the only type of Democrat that can be nominated is a Democrat far too liberal for West Virginia.
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