WV-PPP: Clinton trails everyone

[PolitiJunkie]

Why is this a story? This is fcuking West Virginia! This is the state that was the most recent Democratic presidential candidate's fifth worst state, and the state in which the most recent Democratic President has his second lowest approval rating. The only real story is that Cruz ONLY leads Clinton, one of the highest ranking officials in Barack FCUKING OBAMA'S ADMINISTRATION by 3...other than his last name and skin color, there is no better fcuking fit for this joke of a state than Ted fcuking Cruz! If Cruz is only leading in WEST VIRGINIA by 3, heck if Christie is only leading by NINE in West FCUKING Virginia, I just got a hell of a lot more optimistic about the Democrats' chances in 2016 (not that I wasn't obviously very optimistic already, and for good reason). What are you gonna tell me next? That Patrick FCUKING LEAHY is a lock for reelection?

[PolitiJunkie]

Why is this a story? This is fcuking West Virginia! This is the state that was the most recent Democratic presidential candidate's fifth worst state, and the state in which the most recent Democratic President has his second lowest approval rating. The only real story is that Cruz ONLY leads Clinton, one of the highest ranking officials in Barack FCUKING OBAMA'S ADMINISTRATION by 3...other than his last name and skin color, there is no better fcuking fit for this joke of a state than Ted fcuking Cruz! If Cruz is only leading in WEST VIRGINIA by 3, heck if Christie is only leading by NINE in West FCUKING Virginia, I just got a hell of a lot more optimistic about the Democrats' chances in 2016 (not that I wasn't obviously very optimistic already, and for good reason). What are you gonna tell me next? That Patrick FCUKING LEAHY is a lock for reelection?

Why are you so angry? It's just a poll dude, calm yourself.

I'm not "angry," I'm just fired up by the fact that Republicans want to make a story out of the fact that a liberal Democrat tied closely to Barack Obama would be trailing in WEST VIRGINIA, of all places. Also guys, I don't know if you heard, but Andrew Cuomo is a strong favorite to win reelection if he runs.

[PolitiJunkie]

West Virginia is as gone for the Democrats as Vermont is for Republicans.

When's the last time Vermont elected a Republican senator with 61% of the vote?

2000, and with 65% of the vote. A Jeffords type could probably win there today just as a Manchin type could win massively in WV.  Not to mention that Shumlin's predecessor served for four terms as a Republican from 2003 to 2011, just as Tomblin is a Democratic governor of WV. Not to mention that Douglas held on by 15% and 32% margins respectively in 2006 and 2008, not exactly Republican waves. Tomblin's largest margin of victory as of yet is 5%.

I'm not saying that someone like Christie could make it close in Vermont, but chances are Hillary has just about as much of a chance winning in WV as Christie does in VT.

Fully agree

[PolitiJunkie]

West Virginia is as gone for the Democrats as Vermont is for Republicans.

When's the last time Vermont elected a Republican senator with 61% of the vote?

2000, and with 65% of the vote.

So 13 years ago, compared to 1 year ago for Manchin, which proves my point. If Manchin loses in 2018, then I'll be willing to say WV is permanently gone for the Democrats.

Governors are an entirely different beast. Even Wyoming elected a Democratic governor, as Vermont did a Republican one.

But we all know that a West Virginia Democrat means something very different than a national Democrat, as does a Vermont Republican than a national Republican. So perhaps this aspect isn't even relevant; regardless of parties, a liberal won't win WV and a conservative won't win VT. That's what matters.

[PolitiJunkie]

Boat has sailed.

Irrelevant anyway as the Dems don't need it to get to 270.

Thank you. The Dems need it to get to 518. That is all.

[PolitiJunkie]

West Virginia is as gone for the Democrats as Vermont is for Republicans.

When's the last time Vermont elected a Republican senator with 61% of the vote?

2000, and with 65% of the vote.

So 13 years ago, compared to 1 year ago for Manchin, which proves my point. If Manchin loses in 2018, then I'll be willing to say WV is permanently gone for the Democrats.

Governors are an entirely different beast. Even Wyoming elected a Democratic governor, as Vermont did a Republican one.

Manchin is not Hillary, and as PolitiJunkie said, a liberal will not win WV. Period.

One could argue that Maine is not a Democratic state because it has no Democratic statewide officials. Yet at the same time it has gone Democratic every cycle since 1992.

Statewide and national elections are two different things entirely. The NJ gubernatorial race is not Safe R. It is Safe Christie, just as the 2012 WV senate race was Safe Manchin, not Safe D. Often the statewide races are a great indicator of a state's national lean. But as in the case of WV, it is not.

So no, WV is not gone for all Democrats, but almost no states are gone for all Democrats or all Republicans. WV is gone for all D presidential nominees, because the only type of Democrat that can be nominated is a Democrat far too liberal for West Virginia.

Thank you; this is perfect.

I can see why some people might have thought that Hillary had a fighting chance in WV because Bill Clinton was so popular there and the southern Democrat brand works well there, and honestly, Hillary probably would have won the state had she been the nominee in 2008 (assuming that in this alternate reality, the GOP nominee wasn't Huckabee, and ESPECIALLY if the nominee WAS Romney or Giuliani), but any chances of her winning the state went out the window when she became a member and huge supporter of the Obama administration (and frankly, her southern Democrat brand has been dead since she became a Senator for New York).