Hessen State Election, Sept. 22, 2013

[minionofmidas]

CDU holds Waldeck, 44.0 (+0.4) to 38.4 (+8.3) in the direct vote.

[jaichind]

It seems it will be CDU/SPD grand coalition.  This means that Saxony will be the only German Lander other than Bavaria that SPD is not a part of the ruling coalition.  If somehow SPD does not end up in the government at the federal level today then next election in Saxony will see SPD being in the government one way or another.

[minionofmidas]

Volker Bouffier reelected in Gießen rural.

[Zanas]

Will the coalition making in Hesse be somewhat connected to the federal one ? I mean, from what you've told me, schwarz-rot seems less likely in Hesse than at the federal level, but if it happens at the federal level, will it be likelier in Hesse, or even forced upon the locals by the federal authorities of both parties ?

[minionofmidas]

They can't force us.

[minionofmidas]

Actually, the CDU is probably going to hold onto all six Frankfurt direct seats. It's super close in Frankfurt II but their candidate has the edge.

[minionofmidas]

Nothing is impossible. As the results are coming in, the Left has crept down, the FDP has crept up, until by now they're predicted at 5.1 and 4.9 respectively. If the FDP manages just over and the Left just under 5 then black-yellow gets back in. If they're both out, red-green. If they're both in, nothing changes compared to what we've been assuming all along, really.

[Zanas]

Is there some place we can see the results come in in real time for Hessen ? Their Wahlleiter site doesn't seem to do this, or I haven't found it.

[minionofmidas]

Is there some place we can see the results come in in real time for Hessen ? Their Wahlleiter site doesn't seem to do this, or I haven't found it.

No.

I remember five years ago, I did it by hand at one point.

[minionofmidas]

Comparison of Frankfurt city results, state vs federal.

CDU 32.9 vs 33.7
SPD 27.8 vs 26.5
Greens 16.7 vs 14.5
Left 7.7 vs 8.5
FDP 6.3 vs 7.0
AfD 3.3 vs 5.1

[minionofmidas]

It looks like they're both in. 5.0087% FDP outside the two precincts in Gießen and Idstein that still haven't reported, is what I hear.

[minionofmidas]

The sum of the 53 constituencies wholly in is 4.97%.

[minionofmidas]

SPD wins just 14 direct seats (counting Gießen I); enough to prevent overhang but still a surprisingly bad showing. Largely due to very high Green direct vote tallies.

[minionofmidas]

Eppur si muove? The Gießen result just came in.

[minionofmidas]

Still not official but it looks like
CDU 38.3 47
SPD 30.7 37
Greens 11.1 14
Left 5.2 6
FDP 5.01 6

[Beezer]

Doing just enough to get in. Good job, FDP.

[minionofmidas]

Doing just enough to get in. Good job, FDP.

Somewhere around 2am, a journalist found one of the suddenly reelected MdLs and told him the news that he was not jobless after all. He, quote, almost fell of his chair.

[Tender Branson]

My Hessen state election prediction:

39% CDU [+2]
32% SPD [+8]
10% Greens [-4]
  6% FDP [-10]
  4% Left [-1]
  4% AfD [+4]
  2% Pirates [+1]
  1% FW (-1)
  2% Others

Turnout: 74% (+13%), for obvious reasons ...

Let's see:

38% CDU
31% SPD
11.1% Greens
  5% FDP
  5.2% Left
  4% AfD
  2% Pirates
  1% FW
  2% Others

Within 1% of the Green-coloured parties, slightly above 1% in the red ones.

[RodPresident]

Which alternative is most likely: Red-Red-Green coalition or Traffic Light coalition?
Outside of the parliament, it would be a good way that FDP can work with SPD and Greens, like an opportunity of getting some position to help party after leaving Bundestag.

[minionofmidas]

Grand Coalition
Red-Red-Green
New Elections
Black-Green
Traffic Light

,with the first two almost tied and the third not improbable, sounds like the right order of things. Also, don't expect quick government formation. Not only does Hessian law know no deadline - theoretically, the old government can remain in place until a new one is formed, whenever that will be - the new Landtag won't actually convene for four months. They moved the elections forward to hold them on the same date as the Federal election.

[Famous Mortimer]

Joining a traffic light coalition would not help the FDP. They're seen as having little reason to exist, abandoning all ideology isn't going to help their case.

[Yeahsayyeah]

If they could recreate their image of the 70s as party of economic reason and civil liberties in such a constellation, it could possibly help, but I don't think the Hessen FDP has the people who could do this, of all FDP state parties in the West.

[Franknburger]

Rumour is that the federal CDU is pressing the Hessen CDU to try out black-green, as a test case for the federal level (2017). Black-green coalitions exist on city level, most notably in Frankfurt (Jamaica from 2006 to 2011, black-green since 2011) and Darmstadt (Green-black, i.e. Green mayor, since 2011). Gießen (currently red-green) had a Jamaica coalition from 2006-2011, the directly-elected green mayor of Bad Homburg probably needs to find some kind of arrangement with the CDU, which is the strongest faction in the city council.

Midas, what is your take on it? I guess the Greens would not want to enter such a coalition under Bouffier (the guy is terrible, I can't imagine the chemistry in a Bouffier-led black-green coalition to work), but if the Hessen-CDU put up  a different candidate? Lucia Puttrich? Eva Kühne-Hamann? 

[minionofmidas]

It'd need to be someone outside the Koch-Bouffier clique. Jürgen Banzer?

Given how close SPD and Greens are at the state level, they'll be coordinating any parallel talks with the CDU anyways. Honestly, the best solution might actually be a supergrand CDU-SPD-Green coalition.

[minionofmidas]

Actually the final FDP result was 5.03%, 920 votes more than they needed.