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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  2012 Results By Official Regions
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Author Topic: 2012 Results By Official Regions  (Read 2716 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: September 07, 2013, 09:11:04 pm »
« edited: September 07, 2013, 09:54:58 pm by Waukesha County »

Intro: I'm going to categorize the 2012 presidential results by regions and mini regions. These are official regions defined by the US census that you can see here in this link (Census Regions and Divisions).

For Reference:

The Midwest: IL, IN, IA, KS, MI, MN, MO, NE, ND, OH, SD, WI.
East North Central: IL, IN, MI, OH, WI.
West North Central: IA, KS, MN, MO, NE, ND, SD.

The Northeast: CT, ME, MA, NH, NJ, NY, PA, RI, VT.
New England: CT, ME, MA, NH, RI, VT.
Middle Atlantic: NJ, NY, PA.

The South: AL, AR, DE, DC, FL, GA, KY, LA, MD, MS, NC, OK, SC, TN, TX, VA, WV.
South Atlantic: DE, DC, FL, GA, MD, NC, SC, VA, WV.  
East South Central: AL, KY, MS, TN.
West South Central: AR, LA, OK, TX.

The West: AK, AZ, CA, CO, HI, ID, MT, NV, NM, OR, UT, WA, WY.
Mountain: AZ, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, UT, WY.
Pacific: AK, CA, HI, OR, WA.

Model:

Region: % Obama (EV) (Votes), % Romney (EV) (Votes) Rating: R/D Bellwether: State
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: September 07, 2013, 09:19:21 pm »
« Edited: September 07, 2013, 09:53:15 pm by Waukesha County »

The Midwest:



Total Electoral Votes: 118

East North Central: Red (75)
West North Central: Blue (43)

The Midwest: 50.7% Obama (80) (15,790,893), 47.6% Romney (38) (14,843,298) Rating: Toss-Up Bellwether: Ohio

East North Central: 52.6% Obama (64) (11,185,547), 45.9% Romney (11) (9,743,388) Rating: Lean D Bellwether: Wisconsin

West North Central: 51.4% Romney (27) (5,099,910), 46.4% Obama (16) (4,605,319) Rating: Lean R Bellwether: Missouri
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: September 07, 2013, 09:27:49 pm »
« Edited: September 07, 2013, 09:57:59 pm by Waukesha County »

The Northeast:



Total Electoral Votes: 96

New England: Red
(33)
Middle Atlantic: Blue (63)

The Northeast: 58.5% Obama (96) (13,661,087), 40.0% Romney (0) (9,339,256) Rating: Likely D Bellwether: Connecticut

New England: 59.1% Obama (33) (4,076,156), 39.1% Romney (0) (2,695,302) Rating: Likely D Bellwether: Connecticut

Middle Atlantic: 58.3% Obama (63) (9,584,931), 40.4% Romney (0) (6,643,954) Rating: Likely D Bellwether: New Jersey
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2013, 09:39:54 pm »
« Edited: September 07, 2013, 10:06:14 pm by Waukesha County »

The South:



Total Electoral Votes: 196

South Atlantic: Red (103)
East South Central: Blue (34)
West South Central: Green (59)

The South: 52.9% Romney (24,760,451), 45.8% Obama (21,407,447) Rating: Likely R Bellwether: Georgia

South Atlantic: 50.2% Obama (58) (13,453,502), 48.5% Romney (45) (12,983,086) Rating: Toss-Up Bellwether: Virginia

East South Central: 59.3% Romney (34) (4,516,191), 39.4% Obama (0) (2,998,724) Rating: Safe R Bellwether: Tennessee

West South Central: 58.6% Romney (59) (7,261,174), 40.0% Obama (0) (4,955,221) Rating: Safe R Bellwether: Louisiana
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ElectionsGuy
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E: 3.23, S: -7.48

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« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2013, 09:47:19 pm »
« Edited: September 07, 2013, 10:42:28 pm by Waukesha County »

The West:



Total Electoral Votes: 128

Mountain: Blue (47)
Pacific: Red (81)

The West: 54.2% Obama (98) (15,040,233), 43.2% Romney (30) (11,989,147) Rating: Lean D Bellwether: Oregon

Mountain: 53.1% Romney (27) (4,818,653), 44.4% Obama (20) (4,030,766) Rating: Likely R Bellwether: Arizona

Pacific: 58.9% Obama (78) (11,009,467), 38.4% Romney (3) (7,170,494) Rating: Likely D Bellwether: California
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ElectionsGuy
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Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48

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« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2013, 10:23:02 pm »

Actual Results by region:

The Northeast:



The Midwest:



The South



The West



Obama Regions Won: 3/4: The Midwest, The Northeast, and The West
Romney Regions Won: 1/4: The South


Obama Mini-Regions Won: 5/9: East North Central, New England, Middle Atlantic, South Atlantic, Pacific.
Romney Mini-Regions Won: 4/9: West North Central, East South Central, West South Central, Mountain.
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« Reply #6 on: September 08, 2013, 03:20:45 am »

Change on 2008 by regions would be interesting, I think.
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PolitiJunkie
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« Reply #7 on: September 08, 2013, 02:47:30 pm »

This is AWESOME, thanks for this Waukesha! My only question is how you determined Lean/Likely/Safe. Pacific was 58.9% Obama while West South Central was 58.6% Romney, yet the former was Likely D and the latter was Safe R despite the former being more heavily D than the latter was R. Similarly, West was 54.2% Obama while Mountain was 53.1% Romney, yet the former was Lean D and the latter was Likely R despite the former being more heavily D than the latter was R. What's the methodology there?
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ElectionsGuy
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E: 3.23, S: -7.48

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« Reply #8 on: September 08, 2013, 04:00:03 pm »

This is AWESOME, thanks for this Waukesha! My only question is how you determined Lean/Likely/Safe. Pacific was 58.9% Obama while West South Central was 58.6% Romney, yet the former was Likely D and the latter was Safe R despite the former being more heavily D than the latter was R. Similarly, West was 54.2% Obama while Mountain was 53.1% Romney, yet the former was Lean D and the latter was Likely R despite the former being more heavily D than the latter was R. What's the methodology there?

Again, its because Obama won by 3.9 points, so I add 3.9 points  to republican margins and subtract 3.9 to democrat margins that way its balanced for a tied election.

The rating system goes like this:

D/R+0-10% = Lean
D/R+10-20% = Likely
D/R+20% or more = Safe

The margin of victory of Texas in 2012 was R+15.8%, but since it was a republican state, I add 3.9% and I get R+19.7% which is at the edge of likely.

The margin of victory of California in 2012 was D+23.1%, but since it was a democratic state, I subtract 3.9% and I get D+19.2% which is also at the edge of likely.

California may appear much more liberal than Texas is conservative (in 2012), but in a tied election California is just as liberal as Texas is conservative. That's what I'm getting at here.
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ElectionsGuy
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Posts: 18,530
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Political Matrix
E: 3.23, S: -7.48

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« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2013, 05:02:24 pm »

Change on 2008 by regions would be interesting, I think.

It would, If you want I can do 2008 in 2008 results and then asses the changes here.
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