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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Babette d'Interlaken, Apocrypha)
  HHH/RFK in 68 (search mode)
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Author Topic: HHH/RFK in 68  (Read 5247 times)
A Brave Old Fuzzy Bear for a Brave New Atlas
Fuzzy Bear
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« on: October 04, 2013, 09:34:11 pm »

Those who have put up maps on here need to go back and think if they're looking at this down the end of a 21st Century telescope. For example why's Vermont Democratic? It had a 10% Nixon lead in 1968 IRL and was a GOP stronghold (except 1964). There were 17 other states with a smaller Nixon lead.

Very true.

If it was Humphrey/Kennedy vs. Nixon/Agnew with Wallace as a wild card, I believe the following shifts would have happened:

Arkansas from Wallace to Nixon  (Nixon gains 6)
Georgia from Wallace to Nixon (Nixon gains 12)
Illinois from Nixon to Humphrey (Humphrey gains 26/Nixon loses 26)
Wisconsin from Nixon to Humphrey (Humphrey gains 12/Nixon loses 12)
Texas from Humphrey to Nixon (Nixon gains 25/Humphrey loses 25)

It is hard for me to see many more changes.  A lot of people view the map as it is today, but in 1968, Delaware, Vermont, Oregon, and California were far more Republican in the Presidential race than they are today.  Indeed, Illinois and Wisconsin were more Republican then they are today at the Presidential level, so I'm not sure those switches would have happened.

In 1968, America was sick of the Vietnam War, divided on its resolution, apprehensive of the budding social upheavals and fearful of racial integration.  New Jersey, a primarily suburban state in 1968, swung heavily to Nixon.  RFK would not have made that much of a difference.  Humphrey was unpopular because LBJ was unpopular.

Now if RFK had lived and had been the candidate, that might have shaken things up.
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