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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Babette d'Interlaken, Apocrypha)
  HHH/RFK in 68
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Author Topic: HHH/RFK in 68  (Read 5238 times)
quentincollin
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« on: September 02, 2013, 06:32:29 pm »

Kennedy lives, but Humphrey gets the nom.  He chooses Bobby as his running mate.

Electoral outcome?   Go!!
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2013, 06:57:13 pm »

They win calif and win election.
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quentincollin
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« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2013, 07:17:56 pm »

The trouble is Humphrey needed more than just California to win.  He needed at least two other medium to large states to get to 269.  Winning just CA would have put him at 231 still 38 points short.
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barfbag
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« Reply #3 on: September 02, 2013, 09:31:32 pm »

I think they'd only pick up IL and possibly NJ.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #4 on: September 02, 2013, 09:43:11 pm »

Leaving aside that being as likely as a Christie/Paul ticket in 2016... I don't think that works out well for HHH. He does get access to RFK's formidable fundraising network and that's about it. HHH bleeds Southern Wallace votes, which could flip TX to Nixon. HHH loses Northern suburban ground to Nixon because of RFK's toxicity there.
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barfbag
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« Reply #5 on: September 03, 2013, 03:13:21 pm »

From what I've gathered, they didn't get along well.
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bballrox4717
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« Reply #6 on: September 03, 2013, 04:00:21 pm »

From what I've gathered, they didn't get along well.

I could see them working together though for the good of the party. Both RFK and HHH were massive heroes when it came to civil rights.
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barfbag
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« Reply #7 on: September 03, 2013, 05:02:03 pm »

From what I've gathered, they didn't get along well.

I could see them working together though for the good of the party. Both RFK and HHH were massive heroes when it came to civil rights.

They could but it's hard to say. Normally a running mate is someone the candidate enjoys seeing everyday. Humphrey and John F. Kennedy would've been a good pair.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #8 on: September 05, 2013, 05:14:53 am »

Is George Wallace still running under this scenario?
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quentincollin
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« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2013, 05:14:41 pm »

Yes. But HHH and RFK are such a dynamic combination than Nixon loses votes and is in danger of being in 3rd Place.
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badgate
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« Reply #10 on: September 13, 2013, 12:01:11 am »

They wouldn't have to deal with seeing each other every day until after the election, both would be forces on the stump
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PolitiJunkie
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« Reply #11 on: September 13, 2013, 01:18:57 am »

Assuming JFK is pretty popular at this point, I think HHH/RFK would win decisively in this scenario.
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Cath
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« Reply #12 on: September 13, 2013, 01:55:08 am »

Yes. But HHH and RFK are such a dynamic combination than Nixon loses votes and is in danger of being in 3rd Place.

Lol.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #13 on: September 13, 2013, 02:53:18 am »

Nixon still wins in a close margin
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #14 on: September 14, 2013, 04:03:31 pm »



HHH/RF 272 WVa, CA, WA, ME
Nixon/Agnew 266 OH, OR, WI
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barfbag
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« Reply #15 on: September 14, 2013, 08:14:32 pm »

I actually did this map without reading the part where Kennedy lives.
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PolitiJunkie
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« Reply #16 on: September 15, 2013, 02:42:06 am »

I actually did this map without reading the part where Kennedy lives.

Meaning JFK dies, LBJ becomes President, and does a way worse job than JFK, thus advantage Republicans. Since your map didn't consider JFK living and thus subscribed to the scenario I laid out, your map leans way more Republican than the thread demands due to what you missed and is thus totally irrelevant. Right?
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barfbag
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« Reply #17 on: September 15, 2013, 06:52:33 pm »

I actually did this map without reading the part where Kennedy lives.

Meaning JFK dies, LBJ becomes President, and does a way worse job than JFK, thus advantage Republicans. Since your map didn't consider JFK living and thus subscribed to the scenario I laid out, your map leans way more Republican than the thread demands due to what you missed and is thus totally irrelevant. Right?

Geez why don't you like me?
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PolitiJunkie
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« Reply #18 on: September 15, 2013, 08:12:33 pm »

I actually did this map without reading the part where Kennedy lives.

Meaning JFK dies, LBJ becomes President, and does a way worse job than JFK, thus advantage Republicans. Since your map didn't consider JFK living and thus subscribed to the scenario I laid out, your map leans way more Republican than the thread demands due to what you missed and is thus totally irrelevant. Right?

Geez why don't you like me?

Many reasons, but that has nothing to do with this post. All I meant was that HHH/RFK would have been a way less popular ticket in 68 with JFK dead and LBJ President than if JFK was a popular outgoing President. So if you missed the part that JFK is alive, your map is probably not what it would be had you read that JFK is alive, right?
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barfbag
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« Reply #19 on: September 15, 2013, 08:35:39 pm »

I actually did this map without reading the part where Kennedy lives.

Meaning JFK dies, LBJ becomes President, and does a way worse job than JFK, thus advantage Republicans. Since your map didn't consider JFK living and thus subscribed to the scenario I laid out, your map leans way more Republican than the thread demands due to what you missed and is thus totally irrelevant. Right?

Geez why don't you like me?

Many reasons, but that has nothing to do with this post. All I meant was that HHH/RFK would have been a way less popular ticket in 68 with JFK dead and LBJ President than if JFK was a popular outgoing President. So if you missed the part that JFK is alive, your map is probably not what it would be had you read that JFK is alive, right?



Wallace is still in the race?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #20 on: September 16, 2013, 02:59:13 am »

With Wallace in race, it goes this way:



Vice President Hubert Humphrey/Senator Robert F. Kennedy: 312 EV.; 46.1%
Former Vice President Richard Nixon/Governor Spiro Agnew: 181 EV.; 42.4%
Governor George Wallace/General Curtis LeMay 45 EV.; 10.9%
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johnpressman
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« Reply #21 on: September 17, 2013, 01:36:08 am »

An HHH/RFK ticket in 1968 presents a fundamental problem. You have Hubert Humphrey supporting the Vietnam War policies of LBJ, his boss, and Robert Kennedy, who is bitterly opposed to the war.  Which one is going to change their position?

With Humphrey being the one more likely to switch positions, you would have the Democratic Presidential Candidate opposing the sitting Democratic President's foreign policy.  This would almost force Humphrey to resign the Vice Presidency.  How could the sitting Vice President break with and defy the President, the man who chose him and then handed him the nomination?  This, along with LBJ's intense personal dislike for Robert Kennedy, would have him opposing HHH, his former running mate, and  either urging the Democratic Party organization to sit on its hands, or worse, work against HHH/RFK.

Nixon still wins, and carries Texas.  By the way, just because Kennedy won the California Democratic Primary in 1968, in which Humphrey did not run, doesn't mean he will carry the state in November.  Nixon was from California and Ronald  Reagan was a very popular governor at the time.  California was a much more conservative state in the 1968.  Watch "Dragnet" for example.
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barfbag
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« Reply #22 on: September 17, 2013, 10:42:16 am »

An HHH/RFK ticket in 1968 presents a fundamental problem. You have Hubert Humphrey supporting the Vietnam War policies of LBJ, his boss, and Robert Kennedy, who is bitterly opposed to the war.  Which one is going to change their position?

With Humphrey being the one more likely to switch positions, you would have the Democratic Presidential Candidate opposing the sitting Democratic President's foreign policy.  This would almost force Humphrey to resign the Vice Presidency.  How could the sitting Vice President break with and defy the President, the man who chose him and then handed him the nomination?  This, along with LBJ's intense personal dislike for Robert Kennedy, would have him opposing HHH, his former running mate, and  either urging the Democratic Party organization to sit on its hands, or worse, work against HHH/RFK.

Nixon still wins, and carries Texas.  By the way, just because Kennedy won the California Democratic Primary in 1968, in which Humphrey did not run, doesn't mean he will carry the state in November.  Nixon was from California and Ronald  Reagan was a very popular governor at the time.  California was a much more conservative state in the 1968.  Watch "Dragnet" for example.

With Kennedy living we may not have had the escalation of Vietnam to the point we did with Johnson.
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johnpressman
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« Reply #23 on: September 18, 2013, 11:21:26 am »

No, the Vietnam war escalation began in 1965.  By the time of the Tet offensive in early 1968, LBJ was already looking for a way out of the war.  His decision not to seek reelection may have had something to do with not wanting to preside over the loss of the war he had escalated.

Nixon's "Vietnamization" plan was designed to turn the war over to the South Vietnamese in stages.  The first U.S. troops came home in 1969 and continued to leave until the last combat troops left in 1973.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #24 on: September 19, 2013, 02:03:33 am »

JFK had escalted Vietnam as LBJ did, as JFK was the one who actually begun on the American involvement.

However, a HHH/RFK ticket would have been possible. HHH wanted the end the war in 1968, we might have been out there sooner with him. And in domestic terms, both were liberals and would continue and expand the Great Society programs.
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