Would Bayh win Indiana

[PADem]

If Bayh ran, perhaps with Warner or Richardson as Veep nominee, would he win Indiana?

Now I know its solidly republican but he has won statewide elections relatively well and is popular there?

I know he could help in Ohio, and probably win that, and easily PA even if Santorum runs (yes Phil, even if Santorum runs), but how different is Indiana?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Someone should run a poll.

[PADem]

Done. And I vote Yes, Close.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Done. And I vote Yes, Close.

Oh, I meant a scientific opinion poll of people from Indiana.

[Defarge]

It would be close, Bayh would have to move leftwards during the primaries and would lose alot of support, but he would win.

[Democratic Hawk]

Yes, I think Bayh would win Indiana but it would be close. He'll get enough support from Democrats and Independents, liberals and moderates to see him cross the finish line; however, I doubt he'd get the support of 35% of her Republicans and 37% of her conservatives

Dave

[minionofmidas]

He could win it. He's probably the only Dem who could unless the Republicans nominate Alan Keyes and he comes out of the closet as a Gay man during the campaign, in which case Dennis Kucinich would carry Indiana.
But would he win it? In a nationally at least semi-close election? I voted "no, close". But I'm not sure. Depends who the Reps nominate, I'd figure.

[Moooooo]

1.) Depends on the Republican candidate.
2.) Depends on how far left he moves for the primary.
3.) Depends on how much money he and the DNC are willing to spend in Indiana.
4.) Depends on his running mate.
5.) Depends on alot.

[AuH2O]

Hard to say. But I voted "close, no." I'm not sure home-state advantage matters as much as it once did.

[Erc]

Well, if he does run, we'll have an interesting result very early on in the returns...

Although it does mean no Indianometer this time around...


I second AuH2O's thoughts.

[Democratic Hawk]

According to the CNN Indiana exit poll, Indiana comprises:

1. Party ID: 32% Democrat, 46% Republican and 22% Independent
2. Ideology: 14% Liberal, 43% Moderate and 42% Conservative

Bayh [Bush/Kerry in paranthesis] received the support of:

1) 92% [15% Bush/ 84% Kerry] of Democrats; 35% [95% Bush/5% Kerry] of Republicans; 73% [51% Bush/46% Kerry]] of Independents
2) 87% [21% Bush/79% Kerry] of Liberals; 77% [48% Bush/50% Kerry] of Moderates; 37% [85% Bush/14% Kerry] of Conservatives

Bayh’s base (c.62%) comprised as follows:

1) On a party ID level: Democrat 29.44 + Republican 16.1 + Independent 16.06 = 61.6%
2) On an ideological orientation level: Liberal 12.18 + Moderate 33.11 + Conservative 15.91 = 61.2%

I'm under no illusion that this would necessarily be repeated in a presidential race since his support may drop among Independents and moderates a little - and there's no way he'll secure 35% of the Republican and 37% of the conservative vote but he will poll better than Kerry among all these constituencies and I think he'll eek out a win in the region of 53:47

I doubt the vote against Condi Rice will harm him too much in Indiana, especially when he's stated that there was a better choice for Secretary of State: Indiana's own Richard Lugar

Dave

[ian]

I was wondering this myself, being that every map I ever see from you guys has Bayh winning Indiana.  I don't think he can win by a lot or even a little; I predict that if he runs, he will lose by a little bit.  Almost 60-40 in the last election is a quite a number to pull off for even Bayh in this election.

[Alcon]

I was wondering this myself, being that every map I ever see from you guys has Bayh winning Indiana.  I don't think he can win by a lot or even a little; I predict that if he runs, he will lose by a little bit.  Almost 60-40 in the last election is a quite a number to pull off for even Bayh in this election.

Bayh won 62-37. That's quite impressive.

I think the homestate advantage would, narrowly, give him it, something to the order of 53-46.

[Rob]

Bayh won 62-37. That's quite impressive.

I think the homestate advantage would, narrowly, give him it, something to the order of 53-46.

No way. Even if Bayh carries Indiana- a big if, since Indianans are extremely partisan- it would be something like 50-49. I voted "Yes, close".

[Notre Dame rules!]

Judging by the past, his chances don't look good.

Gore couln't carry TN even though Clinton carried it twice, and Gore had carried it twice as Senator.

Edwards was unable to help Kerry take North Carolina, even though the state re-elected its Dem Governor.

In Presidential races, Indiana is pretty safe for Republicans.

[Akno21]

Against Rudy, yes. Against Bill Frist, Santorum, Pawlenty, a mainstream conservative, no.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Well, it depends. I think 2008 will be a fairly decisive victory for one side or the other.

If Bayh gets the nomination, and he wins, I do think he'll carry Indiana. If he loses, then no, he probably won't.

Indiana doesn't heve to be the critical swing state, you know.

[Rob]

Well, it depends. I think 2008 will be a fairly decisive victory for one side or the other.

If Bayh gets the nomination, and he wins, I do think he'll carry Indiana. If he loses, then no, he probably won't.

Indiana doesn't heve to be the critical swing state, you know.

He wasn't saying that. I agree with him.

[FerrisBueller86]

Bayh wouldn't necessarily have to win Indiana to win the election.  If he can make it a swing state, that will force the Republicans to put resources into defending it, leaving less resources available to contest Ohio, Florida, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, etc.

The fly in the Bayh ointment is whether or not he fires up anyone.  Simply being a moderate doesn't necessarily fire up moderate voters.  If McCain is the Republican nominee (which I'll admit is extremely unlikely), Bayh will have a hard time.

[Democratic Hawk]

In sum, I think Bayh will carry Indiana narrowly unless his GOP opponent was Richard Lugar

Dave