Greek parliamentary election predictions thread
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May 07, 2021, 08:09:26 AM

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  Greek parliamentary election predictions thread
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Author Topic: Greek parliamentary election predictions thread  (Read 3834 times)
Bacon King
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« Reply #25 on: January 25, 2015, 01:01:06 AM »

I thought about changing my prediction to a landslide, larger than expected SYRIZA win but eh
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Swedish Austerity Cheese
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« Reply #26 on: January 25, 2015, 06:11:30 AM »

34,70% SYRIZA
30,20% ND
  8,50% XA
  6,20% To Potami
  5,60% PASOK
  4,80% KKE
  3,30% ANEL
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politicus
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« Reply #27 on: January 25, 2015, 09:12:41 AM »

I am closing this thread since we now have an exit poll.
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politicus
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« Reply #28 on: January 25, 2015, 08:53:40 PM »
« Edited: January 27, 2015, 09:01:02 AM by Charlotte Hebdo »

Reopened

Result:

http://ekloges.ypes.gr/current/v/public/index.html?lang=en#{%22cls%22:%22party%22,%22params%22:{%22id%22:15}}

Most of us were a bit off... Wink

Final result:

Syriza   36,34 % (149)
ND      27,81 % (76)
XA      6,28 % (17)
Potami   6,05 % (17)
KKE       5,47 % (15)
ANEL    4,75 % (13)
Pasok   4,68 % (13)
-------
MDS      2,46 %
Union of Centrists   1,79 %
Teleia - Apostolos Gkletsos 1,77 %
LAOS   1,03 %
Antarsya   0,64 %
DIMAR   0,49 %
Communist Party of Greece (Marxist–Leninist) 0,13 %

36% SYRIZA (correct)
30% ND (2% too high)
8% Potami (2% too high)
6% XA (correct)
5.5% KKE (correct)
4.5% PASOK (correct)
3% ANEL (2% too low)
2.5% Kinima (correct)
1.3% LAOS (0.3% too high)
1.2% DIMAR (0.7% too low)
2.0% Others (2.5% too low)

Overestimated Potami, ND and DIMAR and underestimated ANELand (especially) Others. Main mistake was totally disregarding Union of Centrists, which also led me to overestimate Potami. Also thought ND would get more of ANELs old voters with their right wing turn.
Still, I got Syriza, KKE, Pasok, Golden Dawn right and LAOS almost right). Not too bad.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #29 on: January 26, 2015, 12:28:47 AM »

33.5% SYRIZA 2.9 off
32.0% ND 4.2 off
  8.1% XA 1.6 off
  6.7% KKE 1.2 off
  5.2% Potami 0.8 off
  3.9% PASOK 0.8 off
  2.8% ANEL 1.9 off
  2.4% Kinima nailed it
  2.1% ANTARSYA 1.5 off
  1.5% DIMAR 1 off
  1.2% LAOS 0.2 off
  0.6% others 3.4 off
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jaichind
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« Reply #30 on: January 26, 2015, 08:20:09 AM »
« Edited: January 26, 2015, 10:12:43 AM by jaichind »

My prediction
                              result        diff
SYRIZA    36.3        36.34      -0.04
ND           29.6        27.81     +1.79
River          6.5          6.05    +0.45
KKE           5.6          5.47     +0.13
XA             5.6          6.28     -0.68
PASOK       4.9          4.64     +0.26
ANEL         3.8          4.75     -0.95

Looks like I underestimated ANEL like everyone else.   Of course I overestimated ND.  Other than these two I am pretty happy with how my prediction turned out.  My model mostly worked but I totally failed to take into account Teleia which captured 1.77% of the vote and I pretty much ignored this party when I came up with my model to produce this prediction.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #31 on: January 26, 2015, 10:12:04 AM »

impressive that you nailed SYRIZA's result tho
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