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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Election What-ifs?
  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Babette d'Interlaken, Apocrypha)
  1972: Nixon/Agnew vs. Humphrey/Schapp
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Author Topic: 1972: Nixon/Agnew vs. Humphrey/Schapp  (Read 1958 times)
barfbag
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« on: August 29, 2013, 03:10:23 am »

maps!
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2013, 06:15:34 am »
« Edited: September 04, 2013, 07:37:09 am by President Johnson »

It would be nice to have this scenario as follows: HHH wins election in 1968 by election in the House (because of no EV victory) while Nixon wins the popular vote. In 1972, Nixon seeks a rematch against President Humphrey.
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NHI
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« Reply #2 on: August 29, 2013, 11:39:37 am »

It would be nice to have this scenario as follows: HHH wins election in 1968 by election because in the House (because of no EV victory) while Nixon wins the popular vote. In 1972, Nixon seeks a rematch against President Humphrey.

Under this scenario: For Nixon, the third time's the charm!

1972:
Nixon/Reagan: 386 (55.41%)
Humphrey/Muskie: 156 (44.29%)

1976:
Nixon/Regan: 521 (60.67%)
McGovern/Shriver: 17 (37.52%)
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hurricanehink
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« Reply #3 on: August 29, 2013, 12:18:17 pm »

Let's assume that Humphrey won California in 1968 (let's say there was more resentment in Nixon's home state), and as President Johnson above says, it went to the house. Despite only winning 236 electoral votes, HHH becomes president, although many people believe it to be illegitimate due to Nixon's electoral vote victory. The Democrats are fractured after their 1968 primaries, and southern Democrats defect to the Republican party, which makes major gains in 1970. Facing his third presidential run without a win, Nixon begins campaigning in 1970, and with such a close loss in 1968, he keeps Agnew on the ticket.

George Wallace, after an assassination attempt that left him paralyzed, does not compete in the 1972 election, and in a shock to the Democrat party, endorses Nixon. HHH follows public opinion and gradually reduces troops in Vietnam, but the GOP says it is too slow.

The end result is a comfortable win by Nixon, who doubles down on California and sweeps the south. (I gave Humphrey ever state that McGovern lost IOT by less than 20%)

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barfbag
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« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2013, 01:33:47 pm »

It would be nice to have this scenario as follows: HHH wins election in 1968 by election because in the House (because of no EV victory) while Nixon wins the popular vote. In 1972, Nixon seeks a rematch against President Humphrey.

Ah very interesting! I'd love to see a map like that too.
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shua
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« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2013, 12:00:02 am »

who is this Schapp fellow?
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barfbag
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« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2013, 12:02:42 am »


Milton Schapp was the governor of Pennsylvania.
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Sec. of State Superique
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« Reply #7 on: August 31, 2013, 05:06:43 pm »

Why Humphrey would loose in 1972 if he was elected in 1968. He would be just as good as Nixon, maybe he would be even better...
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barfbag
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« Reply #8 on: August 31, 2013, 10:24:25 pm »

Why Humphrey would loose in 1972 if he was elected in 1968. He would be just as good as Nixon, maybe he would be even better...

He would do much better than McGovern. It would be hard not to. Still Nixon was very popular and would win comfortably.
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Sec. of State Superique
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« Reply #9 on: August 31, 2013, 10:28:00 pm »

Why Humphrey would loose in 1972 if he was elected in 1968. He would be just as good as Nixon, maybe he would be even better...

He would do much better than McGovern. It would be hard not to. Still Nixon was very popular and would win comfortably.

But Nixon was popular in 1972 because he was President, what if Humphrey was elected. Even being elected in a strange House Election, he would prove to be a good President. I just don't know the point you are trying to make barfbag!
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barfbag
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« Reply #10 on: August 31, 2013, 10:34:17 pm »



Nixon        55%
Humphrey 45%
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barfbag
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« Reply #11 on: August 31, 2013, 10:35:25 pm »

Why Humphrey would loose in 1972 if he was elected in 1968. He would be just as good as Nixon, maybe he would be even better...

Well that's a very different scenario that I proposed at the start of this thread. You gave me a good idea.
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quentincollin
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« Reply #12 on: September 03, 2013, 09:09:45 pm »

First of all I don't believe that the GOP would give Nixon a third try.  Even so, I see Humphrey as being a more popular President than LBJ.  He would have ended the Vietnam War, appointed Nixon as Ambassador to China and had detente with the Soviet Union.  I could see Reagan as the Rep Nominee.  He would run a good race but still lose to Humphrey.  Reagan would run again in 1976 and defeat Muskie for President.
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barfbag
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« Reply #13 on: September 04, 2013, 12:05:22 am »

First of all I don't believe that the GOP would give Nixon a third try.  Even so, I see Humphrey as being a more popular President than LBJ.  He would have ended the Vietnam War, appointed Nixon as Ambassador to China and had detente with the Soviet Union.  I could see Reagan as the Rep Nominee.  He would run a good race but still lose to Humphrey.  Reagan would run again in 1976 and defeat Muskie for President.

Yes but that's a different topic on a different thread. All I was asking is what if Humphrey ran a second time in 1972 and chose Pennsylvania governor, Milton Schapp as his running mate?
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Dr. Cynic
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« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2013, 02:41:01 am »

First of all I don't believe that the GOP would give Nixon a third try.  Even so, I see Humphrey as being a more popular President than LBJ.  He would have ended the Vietnam War, appointed Nixon as Ambassador to China and had detente with the Soviet Union.  I could see Reagan as the Rep Nominee.  He would run a good race but still lose to Humphrey.  Reagan would run again in 1976 and defeat Muskie for President.

Yes but that's a different topic on a different thread. All I was asking is what if Humphrey ran a second time in 1972 and chose Pennsylvania governor, Milton Schapp as his running mate?

Not to be pedantic, but his name was spelled Shapp not Schapp.

Also, Shapp was Jewish (His religion would have helped in some places, hurt in others). He also would have only been Governor for 1 year in 1972. Humphrey would likely not have chosen him based on this.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #15 on: September 04, 2013, 07:39:37 am »

First of all I don't believe that the GOP would give Nixon a third try.  Even so, I see Humphrey as being a more popular President than LBJ.  He would have ended the Vietnam War, appointed Nixon as Ambassador to China and had detente with the Soviet Union.  I could see Reagan as the Rep Nominee.  He would run a good race but still lose to Humphrey.  Reagan would run again in 1976 and defeat Muskie for President.

Yes but that's a different topic on a different thread. All I was asking is what if Humphrey ran a second time in 1972 and chose Pennsylvania governor, Milton Schapp as his running mate?

I agree with that. Humphrey would have ended Vietnam sooner and Nixon would loose in 1972 in a rematch. But Nixon would still show up better than Reagan in 1972, as Reagan would have been defeated by President Humphrey.
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barfbag
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« Reply #16 on: September 04, 2013, 08:14:42 pm »

First of all I don't believe that the GOP would give Nixon a third try.  Even so, I see Humphrey as being a more popular President than LBJ.  He would have ended the Vietnam War, appointed Nixon as Ambassador to China and had detente with the Soviet Union.  I could see Reagan as the Rep Nominee.  He would run a good race but still lose to Humphrey.  Reagan would run again in 1976 and defeat Muskie for President.

Yes but that's a different topic on a different thread. All I was asking is what if Humphrey ran a second time in 1972 and chose Pennsylvania governor, Milton Schapp as his running mate?

I agree with that. Humphrey would have ended Vietnam sooner and Nixon would loose in 1972 in a rematch. But Nixon would still show up better than Reagan in 1972, as Reagan would have been defeated by President Humphrey.

Right but what if Nixon was in office and Humphrey ran again?
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President Johnson
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« Reply #17 on: September 05, 2013, 04:55:04 am »
« Edited: September 05, 2013, 05:29:59 am by President Johnson »

First of all I don't believe that the GOP would give Nixon a third try.  Even so, I see Humphrey as being a more popular President than LBJ.  He would have ended the Vietnam War, appointed Nixon as Ambassador to China and had detente with the Soviet Union.  I could see Reagan as the Rep Nominee.  He would run a good race but still lose to Humphrey.  Reagan would run again in 1976 and defeat Muskie for President.

Yes but that's a different topic on a different thread. All I was asking is what if Humphrey ran a second time in 1972 and chose Pennsylvania governor, Milton Schapp as his running mate?

I agree with that. Humphrey would have ended Vietnam sooner and Nixon would loose in 1972 in a rematch. But Nixon would still show up better than Reagan in 1972, as Reagan would have been defeated by President Humphrey.

Right but what if Nixon was in office and Humphrey ran again?

In this case, Hubert is without a chance, despite he would have done better than McGovern. One of the better scenarios for Hubert:



President Nixon/Vice President Agnew: 449 EV. - 57.9%
Former Vice President Humphrey/Governor Schapp: 89 EV. 40.1%

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barfbag
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« Reply #18 on: September 05, 2013, 02:47:24 pm »

First of all I don't believe that the GOP would give Nixon a third try.  Even so, I see Humphrey as being a more popular President than LBJ.  He would have ended the Vietnam War, appointed Nixon as Ambassador to China and had detente with the Soviet Union.  I could see Reagan as the Rep Nominee.  He would run a good race but still lose to Humphrey.  Reagan would run again in 1976 and defeat Muskie for President.

Yes but that's a different topic on a different thread. All I was asking is what if Humphrey ran a second time in 1972 and chose Pennsylvania governor, Milton Schapp as his running mate?

I agree with that. Humphrey would have ended Vietnam sooner and Nixon would loose in 1972 in a rematch. But Nixon would still show up better than Reagan in 1972, as Reagan would have been defeated by President Humphrey.

Right but what if Nixon was in office and Humphrey ran again?

In this case, Hubert is without a chance, despite he would have done better than McGovern. One of the better scenarios for Hubert:



President Nixon/Vice President Agnew: 449 EV. - 57.9%
Former Vice President Humphrey/Governor Schapp: 89 EV. 40.1%



This is the discussion I wanted to have. I had Humphrey doing a little bit better.
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Darth Plagueis
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« Reply #19 on: October 23, 2013, 12:59:31 am »

How does Humphrey win South Dakota?.
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barfbag
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« Reply #20 on: October 23, 2013, 08:37:38 pm »

Let's assume that Humphrey won California in 1968 (let's say there was more resentment in Nixon's home state), and as President Johnson above says, it went to the house. Despite only winning 236 electoral votes, HHH becomes president, although many people believe it to be illegitimate due to Nixon's electoral vote victory. The Democrats are fractured after their 1968 primaries, and southern Democrats defect to the Republican party, which makes major gains in 1970. Facing his third presidential run without a win, Nixon begins campaigning in 1970, and with such a close loss in 1968, he keeps Agnew on the ticket.

George Wallace, after an assassination attempt that left him paralyzed, does not compete in the 1972 election, and in a shock to the Democrat party, endorses Nixon. HHH follows public opinion and gradually reduces troops in Vietnam, but the GOP says it is too slow.

The end result is a comfortable win by Nixon, who doubles down on California and sweeps the south. (I gave Humphrey ever state that McGovern lost IOT by less than 20%)



How does Humphrey win South Dakota?
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #21 on: October 23, 2013, 10:26:01 pm »

Let's assume that Humphrey won California in 1968 (let's say there was more resentment in Nixon's home state), and as President Johnson above says, it went to the house. Despite only winning 236 electoral votes, HHH becomes president, although many people believe it to be illegitimate due to Nixon's electoral vote victory. The Democrats are fractured after their 1968 primaries, and southern Democrats defect to the Republican party, which makes major gains in 1970. Facing his third presidential run without a win, Nixon begins campaigning in 1970, and with such a close loss in 1968, he keeps Agnew on the ticket.

George Wallace, after an assassination attempt that left him paralyzed, does not compete in the 1972 election, and in a shock to the Democrat party, endorses Nixon. HHH follows public opinion and gradually reduces troops in Vietnam, but the GOP says it is too slow.

The end result is a comfortable win by Nixon, who doubles down on California and sweeps the south. (I gave Humphrey ever state that McGovern lost IOT by less than 20%)


McGovern only came close in South Dakota because it's his home state.
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Cath
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« Reply #22 on: October 23, 2013, 10:46:19 pm »

Why Humphrey would loose in 1972 if he was elected in 1968. He would be just as good as Nixon, maybe he would be even better...

Nixon didn't win in 1972 for policy reasons.
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barfbag
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« Reply #23 on: October 23, 2013, 10:49:01 pm »

Why Humphrey would loose in 1972 if he was elected in 1968. He would be just as good as Nixon, maybe he would be even better...

Nixon didn't win in 1972 for policy reasons.

Nixon won for every reason one can think of with as bad as McGovern was.
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